|
-- Posted Wednesday, 29 March 2006 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 4:00 AM: GOLD -3.50, SILVER -2.50
London Gold Fix $562.25 -$1.50 LME COPPER STKS 121,375 ml tns +450 tns
COMEX GOLD stks 7.526 ml oz Unchanged COMEX SILVER stks 125.2 ml oz Unchanged OVERNIGHT ACTION: Bank selling in China adds to the Fed induced profit taking, but the light downside action in Tokyo overnight came off very light volume. GOLD: We don't expect the impact of the Fed to last long, but it is certainly cause for some profit-taking. While seeing the forward rate hike expectations rise a little further is limiting to gold, the overall impact of the Fed's dialogue on Tuesday afternoon is only partially undermining because the Dollar isn't showing that much strength from the meeting. We suspect that the June gold contract will see some support today off the 50 day moving average down at $567.3. While the bigger picture trend remains up, the gold market seems to have failed again at ending the pattern of lower highs that has been in place since the February highs. Risking the ire of the gold bugs, it would seem that the gold market once again has some back and fill capacity off the short term technical picture and the lack of optimism toward the economy. However, a close above $571.3 in the June contract today could put the gold market above a down trend line that is drawn off the February and March highs and that might inspire some fresh buying. One should be impressed with the gold and silver markets ability to generally forge gains in the face of a wave of new investment and trading vehicles over the last two weeks, as the market could have seen the concentrated spec buying interest watered down. Buying support for new positions in the June gold comes in at $553.3. SILVER: While the trend remains up in silver, the market is at least partially undermined by the quasi double top up at $10.94. However, the May silver was able to recoil away from a moderate overnight slide in a move that looks a lot like a reversal. In other words, the market attempted to liquidate early today but the buyers showed up in an aggressive fashion and pushed prices back up to the vicinity of the old highs. It should also be noted that several base metals prices have paused in their run ups and that could mean that the markets are waiting for more favorable news on the global economy before pushing prices to an even higher level. Certainly the presence of the Fed and the prospect of future rate hikes is cause for a pause, but as long as global equity markets shake off the progression to higher rates, we suspect that investment interest in silver will remain in place. However, we can't rule out a re-test of the $10.745 or an even bigger correction to up trend channel support of $10.474. That trend line support level rises to $10.53 on Thursday and to $10.58 on Friday. It should also be noted that the Penoles Mines CEO yesterday made a very bullish prediction that the metals boom would last at least two years. The Penoles CEO justified the bullish projection by suggesting that a number of different fundamental issues have come together to sustain the bull wave. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 3/29/2006 COMEX SILVER (MAY) 03/29/2006: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside target is 1100.3. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1093.5 and 1100.3, while 1st support hits today at 1080.5 and below there at 1074.3. COMEX GOLD (APR) 03/29/2006: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 571.8. The next area of resistance is around 569.3 and 571.8, while 1st support hits today at 564.7 and below there at 562.5.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation.
There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Wednesday, 29 March 2006 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Previous Articles by Nell Sloane
|
