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Gold Thoughts

By: Ned W. Schmidt, CFA CEBS


-- Posted Monday, 22 September 2008 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury & Free Lunches has done Gold investors an incredible favor. While not benefiting immediately as did those owning bank stocks, we will over time. With the U.S. government now assuming responsibility for financial assets of dubious value, it has committed itself to nearly unlimited funding of U.S. housing market, and every other industry with political clout. One consequence may be that the Federal Reserve loses control of monetary policy. Will the Federal Reserve now need to monetize U.S. government debt in unlimited fashion?

 


This week's chart is of the year-to-year change in Federal Reserve credit, essentially the asset side of Fed's balance sheet. When it buys securities or makes loans to banks, those claims become assets of the Federal Reserve. In recent years, the Federal Reserve has had the luxury of relying on foreign central banks to finance the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve Credit grew slowly, as did core inflation. With foreign investors now balking at financing doubtful U.S. financial assets, that financing burden will now belong to the Federal Reserve. The recent spike in that chart is the first round of the uncontrolled financing of the bank stock holder bailout plan. The Federal Reserve credit growth rate had already been on a rising trend as the Federal Reserve began financing the questionable assets of the U.S. financial system.

 

With the Federal Reserve now forced to monetize vast quantities of U.S. government debt, Federal Reserve credit will grow rapidly. As that is base from which money is created, the quantity of dollars will grow. As the quantity of dollars rises, the value, or price, of those dollars will decline. As that happens, the dollar value of Gold will rise. The U.S. financial bailout plan in essence puts a rising floor under the dollar price of Gold. Gold may indeed benefit more from the financial bailout plan!

 

GOLD THOUGHTS come from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of The Value View Gold Report, monthly, and Trading Thoughts, weekly. To receive these reports, go to http://home.att.net/~nwschmidt/Order_Gold_EMonthlyTT.html


-- Posted Monday, 22 September 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com


Ned W. Schmidt, CFA CEBS is publisher of THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT - Coverage of the emerging GOLD SUPER CYCLE. Explores the situation in Gold that may carry it to $1,225. To subscribe Click Here. A trial period is available by Clicking Here

Ned W. Schmidt, CFA CEBS is a nationally recognized authority and speaker on a variety of investment topics, including value investing and global capital flows. Currently, Ned is Resident of Schmidt Management Company in DeLand, Florida, specializing in financial engineering. The firm’s proprietary research influences about $15 billion in assets, and is investment advisor to the Argyle Global Equity Appreciation Fund.

Most recently Ned served as the Visiting George Professor of Applied at Stetson University where he taught institutional money management. Preciously he had been a Senior Vice president with a trust company where he had the responsibility for discretionary investments of $3.5 billion.



 



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