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-- Posted Monday, 29 December 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

For 2009 I have the following observations - what are yours?

1. Global stock markets will find a bottom below current levels and stage a very modest rally, perhaps in the second half. Ditto oil prices.

2. Bonds look a bubble set to crash with a flood of new issues and stimulus programs.

3. The US dollar will rally as an asset sell-off continues, and then devalue again when it stops.

4. Gold should have a much better 2009 than 2008, although not while the dollar is strengthening. Ditto silver. Dow:Gold ratio of one a possibility though more likely in 2010.

5. Cash could again be king in 2009, but judging which currency to hold will be difficult. However, cash will buy more so it is worth having.

6. Real estate price falls will continue everywhere.

7. The bargains are all staring at you - but it will be exceptionally hard to separate the dogs from the future stars, and might not be worth the risk.

Four Immediate Bull Points for Gold

Gold hit $884 as this post was written early on Monday 29th December, the day that Indian astrologers have down for a stock market crash. That would seem unlikely given thin holiday trading. But a further rise in the gold price, even if short-term, looks probable for four reasons:

1. Geopolitics: Israel has attacked Gaza with considerable loss of life, a reminder of the chronic political problems of the Middle East with Iran and Pakistan other possible flash points. Arabs are big investors in gold and respond to disruptions in their own backyard.

2. Physical delivery requests are mounting at the Comex futures exchange which could well result in an immediate shortage of gold at the year-end. The futures market looks about to breakdown, giving control of the gold price back to the physical market where available stocks are low.

3. Gold preserved value through the storm of 2008, and 2009 looks no better, while investors are increasingly concerned about the bubble in the bond market. In the investment cycle the next step is a bond crash and a flight to precious metals.

4. The dollar rally looks to have already broken down, so look for a swift reversal to dollar devaluation and gold appreciation. That would also boost the oil price, usually a positive for gold, and also linked to geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

-- Posted Monday, 29 December 2008 | Digg This Article

About Peter Cooper:
Oxford University educated financial journalist Peter Cooper found himself made redundant by Emap plc in London in the mid-1990s and decided to rebuild his career in Dubai as launch editor of the pioneering magazine Gulf Business. He returned briefly to London in 1999 to complete his first book, a history of the Bovis construction group.

Then in 2000 he went back to Dubai to become an Internet entrepreneur, just as the dot-com market crashed. But he stumbled across the opportunity to become a partner in www.ameinfo.com, which later became the Middle East's leading English language business news website.

Over the course of the next seven years he had a ringside seat as editor-in-chief writing about the remarkable transformation of Dubai into a global business and financial hub city. At the same time www.ameinfo.com prospered and was sold in 2006 to Emap plc for $27 million, completing the career circle back to where it began a decade earlier.

He remains a lively commentator and columnist as a freelance journalist based in Dubai and travels extensively each summer with his wife Svetlana. His financial blog www.arabianmoney.net is attracting increasing attention with its focus on investment in gold and silver as a means of prospering during a time of great consumer price inflation and asset price deflation.

Order my book online from this link

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