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Grand Fenwick Duchy Attacks

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks


Rick’s Picks

Monday, June 5, 2006

For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky

I came under siege by the denizens of Grand Fenwick Friday following my publication here of a list of news stories about the coming housing bust. The list evidently had been compiled by bloggers at patrick.net, but it came to me in the form of an e-mail from someone who identified himself only as “Martin” and using the address untitled@att.net. Although none of the aggrieved bloggers threatened to do a Theo Van Gogh on me, there was a lot of hissing and clucking in their messages, which tersely admonished me for “stealing” the list. I have no apologies to make, but I can nonetheless recommend http://patrick.net to you without qualm, since it provides some interesting and fairly detailed information pertaining to the coming crash.  The emphasis is on Bay Area properties – and what better region to monitor if you are looking for early signs of the coast-to-coast bust?

The morning was busy otherwise, since a recommendation I’d made to buy June 50 Citi puts came within a hair of being filled – close enough, actually, that I had to assume that at least some subscribers would have been filled on the order. The stock rose on the day, but we had bought the puts at such a good price that we actually made money exiting them within an hour of the purchase. I heard from two subscribers who paid the suggested 0.50 for them and were able to dump them for 0.60, based on a bulletin I put out early in the session. The profit after commissions was nothing to brag about – maybe $35 or so – but that’s still enough to take the Missus to lunch, provided she doesn’t go overboard on the Beluga.

Yesterday being a Friday two weeks before an expiration, I had expected the puts to trade down to 0.40 or 0.45 by day’s end, provided Citi hung out near the $50 strike. In fact, 0.50 (what we paid for them) was the low of the day, and there was a firm 0.50 bid on the close with the stock changing hands at 50.14. This suggests that the market makers are not overly eager to give these puts away. Usually, the naked selling of out-of-the money puts a week or two before expiration is considered by professionals to be a reliable source of free money. Do they perhaps know something?

There was another recommendation in Friday’s Touts, to short the mini-Dow at 11336, and although I’d have bet a shot-and-a-beer that it would be reached exactly, the actual intraday high was only 11322. It is usually a sign of impending weakness if a rally reverses without achieving so modest a hidden-pivot target. However, in this case we’ll give the undecideds the benefit of the doubt when next week begins, since they seem to be ruling the market these days – with a pot-metal fist.

Have a great weekend. My eighth grader is in a lacrosse tournament that I’m looking forward to. The team had a rotten record in 2005, but so many players grew by a foot since last spring that they are a good wild-card prospect to make the finals.

***

Oz Seminar a ‘Go”

The hidden pivot seminar in Sydney, Australia is a definite, since no fewer than fifteen of you have told me you’ll be there. New York is first, though, in early October, and it will be a no-frills version of the course that I gave in Denver. After that there will probably be just one more session offered – in San Francisco, late in 2006 or early 2007 -- but that would be the last for a long while. If you would like to attend any of these sessions, please let me know asap via e-mail.  The course includes post-grad mentoring in a chat room forum.

***

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com  


-- Posted Sunday, 4 June 2006




 



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