For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky

Iran Reacts!

There’s nothing funny about Iran, not one single thing, but I had to stifle a laugh when this headline popped out at me at Google News: “Iran Reacts Positively to New Proposal”. It puts one in mind of the Tim Burton film Mars Attacks!, one of the wickedest satires since Dr. Strangelove. The film opens with Earth on edge as the Martian fleet descends upon the desert just outside of Las Vegas. Do they come in peace? Well, decide for yourself. A hippy lady releases a dove into the air as the grotesquely bobble-headed Martian commander emerges from his flying saucer. His startled reaction is to incinerate the bird in mid-flight, triggering a firefight between Martians and U.S troops that ends with all the soldiers, and thousands of innocent bystanders, reduced to smoldering ashes.

Hours later, the solons on Capitol Hill are attempting to spin this catastrophe so as to avoid angering the aliens. Invited to address a joint session of Congress, the Martians are welcomed with open arms before they whip out their death-ray blasters and do it again. Now it’s all-out war between Earth and Mars, notwithstanding the U.S. President’s (Jack Nicholson) attempt to negotiate a truce on his knees. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that as we attempt to make Iran stand down in the most serious political crisis since Russia’s attempt to base nuclear missiles in Cuba.     

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Drawing a Bead on Gold

Gold continues to grope for traction, but that hasn’t prevented our doing some bottom-fishing on the way down, presumably to a hidden-pivot target just below $600.  Here’s yesterday’s play-by-play as it  unspooled in the Intraday Notes section of Rick’s Picks:

$ August Gold (629.00)

06/05/2006 20:06:42 EST 6036

I want to reiterate that the 599.40 target given here earlier not only remains viable; it is also the most likely spot I can discern for gold's next potentially important bottom. Accordingly, you can plan on bottom-fishing there with a 597.90 stop ($1.00 lower than the number given previously). There are other hidden pivots between here and 599.40, but I've flagged only one to keep it simple. Alternatively, it would take a 681.60 print by Wednesday to decisively end the correction from $732.

06/06/2006 09:43:41 2

August Gold  (634.20) The nearest hidden-pivot support lies at 630.00, a number you can bottom-fish using a 630.10 bid, stop 629.90 (!), day order. If the target is easily breached, though, we should infer that the downtrend will continue to at least 609.10, and thence to a more important target at 599.40 given here previously. Alternatively, a print exceeding 644.00 would signal potential over the next 4-5 days to as high as 659.90.

Update 1:18 p.m. EST: Here's a nice note just received from subscriber David F., who's used his street smarts to turn my near-miss into a winner: "Thanks for the 630.10 pivot. It did not get hit in the COMEX, but it did in the NYMEX mini-contract. I nearly chickened out when it bounced off of 630.5 twice, bet held on since it looked like a "slow" bottom forming (however temporarily). Got in at 630.2 bid, one contract, risk: $17. You're the best!" Always pleased to receive messages like this one. Keep 'em coming, David!

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