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Making Book On Armageddon

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks


-- Posted Wednesday, 9 August 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Wednesday, August 9 2006

For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky 

My friend Chuck traded pork bellies for a while on the Merc, until the day he showed up in the pits tripping on LSD. He claims to have made money that day, but not before drug-induced flights of fantasy led him to think long and hard about the slaughterhouses that would actually take delivery on hog contracts he was buying and selling with the wave of the hand. By day’s end he’d resolved to leave the pits for good, if not to atone for his karmic sins by never again eating meat.

I bring this up because of the difficulties I’ve been experiencing trying to keep my commentary and trading advice from decoupling from the “real world”. Traders are of course obliged to pay attention to current events simply because headlines often move the markets.  Yesterday, for instance, word of the Fed’s decision not to tighten caused spasms in stocks and bonds that made their charts look briefly like a bad liar’s polygraph.

When Silliness Reigns

On such days do we come to recognize that stupidity and silliness often drive shares. Indeed, seasoned observers will take the “silly factor” into account whenever mass hysteria has caused stocks or bonds to go temporarily crazy.

But what are we to think when the opposite obtains – that is, when investors disinterestedly shrug off news and events that verge on cataclysmic? Granted, we shouldn’t expect the markets to freeze with fear each time Iran’s over-the-top president, Ahmadinejad, threatens to annihilate Israel and send billions of infidels to hell. But shouldn’t we be taking his threats just a little more seriously – seriously enough, that is, to quiet the hubris just a bit? With the geopolitical world threatening to tilt off its axis, I for one am finding it increasingly difficult to get lathered up about such things as inform bullish banter on the talks shows – things like soft landings, moderating deficits, cease-fire proposals, etc.

Outweighing all such trivia, at least in my mind, is the apocalyptic op-ed essay by Bernard Lewis in The Wall Street Journal the other day. Lewis, a scholar not known for alarmism, laid to rest the notion that the threat of Mutually Assured Destruction would in any way constrain Iran from deploying nuclear weapons. To the contrary, he asserted, the thought of mushroom clouds covering the earth (much as they did at the end of Dr. Strangelove) is cause for rejoicing among Islam’s fanatics, since it will only hasten their ascent to heaven as well as the total and final defeat of the infidels.

Polite Pessimist

Lewis was too genteel to suggest that civilization is likely to end in this way. But if you read between the lines, you can see that he is not entirely optimistic about civilization’s chances for survival:  “In the long term,” he wrote, “it would seem that the best, perhaps the only hope is to appeal to those Muslims, Iranians, Arabs and others who do not share these apocalyptic perceptions and aspirations, and feel as much threatened, indeed even more threatened, than we are. There must be many such, probably even a majority in the lands of Islam. Now is the time for them to save their countries, their societies and their religion from the madness of MAD.”

In the meantime, do we dare ignore the widely touted significance to Muslims of August 22, or the fact that Ahmadinejad postponed Iran’s response to civilization’s nuclear “cease-and-desist order” until that day?  According to Islamic tradition, that is the day after Muhammad made his nighttime journey to Jerusalem and then flew to heaven from the Temple Mount, lighting up the skies over the holy city in his wake. August 22 may pass without event, and some will breathe a sigh of relief if it does. But please pardon me, dear readers, if I am unable to work up much of an appetite between now and then for playing a quick pop in Citi shares, or a head-fake in Beazer Homes. Such silly games seem rather beside the point right now, a distraction from real-world events that are probably too terrifying for most of us to contemplate.

***

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 


-- Posted Wednesday, 9 August 2006 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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