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-- Posted Friday, 20 October 2006 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick's Picks

Friday, October 20, 2006

For investors who'd rather be smart than lucky 

I've stayed on in New York City in order to attend the fall dinner of the CMRE – the Committee for Monetary Research and Education. Newmont Mining's president, Pierre Lassonde, is a featured speaker tonight, and I will duly report on his comments in Monday's edition. Others on the program include Weeden's Charles Maxwell, financial columnist Martin Mayer, guru Paul Van Eeden, and Bob Hoye, whose thoughts have been featured here many times. As you will already know, Bob and I share a hard-core deflationist perspective, as well as the minority viewpoint that falling asset values could cause an intrinsically worthless dollar to strengthen in the years ahead.

I was a dinner speaker myself at a CMRE event years ago, nearly as bearish then as I am now. This was during the allegedly "mild" 1990-91 recession. I was concerned at that time that the sum of state and local public debt would scuttle the economy, much as a rogue wave mounts to catastrophic effect when two big swells come together. The late Ed Hart, the grey eminence at CNBC back then, before the kids took over, saw merit in my argument and invited me to speak before the CMRE.   I was paired against a notable bull of that time, David Ranson, president of H.C. Wainright Economics. We did not debate, but rather presented our respective points of view. I say that he was a notable bull because he was willing to go out on a limb with a very bullish forecast at a time when recession had cast a dark shadow on Wall Street, as well as on popular perceptions of the economy.

I was so smug back then as to think Mr. Ranson had it all wrong – that there was no way the economy would work its way out of such a seemingly deep hole. But it did, of course, perhaps more spectacularly than even he may have anticipated. The lesson I took away from my turn at the CMRE dais was that the stock market has a way of humbling, or even humiliating, forecasters who would profess certitude. It is therefore with an open mind that I will be listening to tonight's speakers, the better to give you the benefit of their insider knowledge and exceptionally well-informed points of view.

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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in i ssues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers' initials will be used unless expre ss written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com  

-- Posted Friday, 20 October 2006 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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