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-- Posted Thursday, 4 January 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Thursday, January 4, 2007

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

So here’s the score after one day of trading in 2007:  Da Boyz 1, Public 0.  Wednesday’s deftly managed volatility was nothing short of breathtaking – a day when even the savviest traders may have found themselves bamboozled at key turning points. Rick’s Picks subscribers had a live play in IBM by way of some call options that we we still hold. The stock surged to within a mere 3 cents of a predicted Hidden Pivot top at 98.43 after having begun the day deep in the hole. Although the rally, sharp as it was, would not have permitted the short sale of January 105 calls for 0.40 as advised against our Jan 100 calls, it at least gave bulls a chance to take partial profits near the exact peak of the rally. This some subscribers evidently did, and a chat-room participant reported closing out some Jan 100s for 1.15 -- 65% more than we paid for the option in mid-December.

Once IBM had fulfilled its target it fell precipitously like hundreds of other stocks. But it was in the precious metals sector where we saw some of the most punitive reversals of the day. Most mining stocks had opened promisingly, spurred by a rally in Gold futures that saw the February contract trade nearly $9 above last Friday’s $639 settlement price. Newmont, for one, was up more than two percent on the opening, recording a high of  45.67. But by day’s end it had fallen sharply, touching a low of 43.73 before rallying weakly to close down 0.95 on the day. Another favorite, Goldcorp, fared even worse on a percentage basis, ending the day at 27.38 after a 1.06 loss.

Difficult as the market was to trade yesterday, we needn’t feel the least bit anxious about what might lie ahead for the stock market. My longstanding DJIA target of 13045 remains viable, and it has kept us streadfastly on the right side of the market for months. However, yesterday’s action has raised a yellow flag, since the Industrial Average fell without having achieved a 12613 Hidden Pivot target broached yesterday morning in the chat room. The actual high was 12580, or 33 points less than we’d expected. This is mildly bearish by itself, but the implications would be seriously compounded if the Indoos were now to create a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart by surpassing two prior lows without pausing along the way for more than a single bar. The two lows are noted in the chart above, the lower of them at exactly 12243.08. You should set an alert a tick below that number, since its breach could signal a major trend change.

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London Seminar Firming

A Hidden Pivot seminar in London appears likely, judging from the strong initial response.  If you’re interested in attending a two-day class there, probably sometime in the spring of 2007, please let me know via e-mail, including your contact information. The cost would be $1,500 USD.

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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted Thursday, 4 January 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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