-- Posted Tuesday, 12 June 2007 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
The chart below shows why, although our near-term outlook for Gold is negative, we view longer-term prospects more optimistically. Our analysis hinges on an elemental rule that anyone can easily learn to apply. The rule states, simply, that new uptrends or downtrends begin with “impulse legs” that surpass at least two prior highs or lows.
This rule is at the core of the Hidden Pivot method, and it allows us to anticipate Gold’s next big move without ever experiencing even a slight twinge of anxiety. To someone even passingly familiar with the Hidden Pivot method, the question, “What do you think about Gold right now?” is superfluous, since the answer depends on what time frame we are talking about.
In the chart, there are numerous uptrends and downtrends of various magnitudes playing out simultaneously. To sort them out in a way that can tell us exactly what Gold is up to, we need only identify impulse legs both bullish and bearish, then rank them according to their significance in visual terms.
An Eye for Art
Because the technique is visual rather than mathematical, and because it eschews such conventional terms as trendlines, support & resistance, oscillators, and even volume, I like to tell students that learning to read a chart is akin to developing an eye for art. With a little bit of practice, one can reach a point where a chart simply “looks” appealing from a bullish or bearish perspective. (Click here for your free copy of “About My Method,” a detailed discussion of the Hidden Pivot Method.)
Moreover, when a big move is coming it cannot possibly occur without tipping us off with a thrust exceeding the requisite two prior highs or lows. Knowing which prior highs/lows are important requires a certain adjustment of the eye, but making such distinctions is no more difficult, really, than identifying in a painting elements of harmony, symmetry and balance.
Why We’re Sure
So why are we so sure Gold is in a long-term bull market? In the chart, the most visually obvious downthrust marked a selloff begun last May from around $732 and ending down around $546. Now, a 25% decline may have felt world-ending to some investors, especially those who stayed long Gold all the way down. But from a Hidden Pivot standpoint the most striking thing about the big down-leg was that it failed to take out even a single major, prior low, much less the two required by the Hidden Pivot Method to signal an important change in the trend.
I’ve labeled three such lows on the chart, and you can see at a glance that they are not only of similar magnitude, but of a degree that overshadows the “little-stuff” lows that are literally all over the chart. Colloquially speaking, one could say that the selloff from last May’s highs “lacked the guts” of a true bear-market impulse leg.
Matching the Legs
Looking at the bullish side of this chart, we see that Gold has been working on series of bullish impulse legs of lesser degree since last June. We would grow concerned about the health of the bull trend only if some nasty down-leg surpassed lows 1a and 2a in one fell swoop. To be sure, some lesser lows have already been exceeded, marking bearish corrections of a commensurate degree, some of which are currently in progress. But when one views each impulse legs in relationship to others both bullish and bearish, the bull’s overall dominance of this chart becomes readily apparent.
Forecasting the exact price at which various trend legs will terminate is another aspect of the Hidden Pivot Method, but we will save a discussion of that for another day.
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Seminar Opportunity
Only a few Australians have signed up so far for the June 30-31 online Hidden Pivot Seminar, so if small class-size appeals to you, this is the session you’ll want to attend. The seminar will likely be the last I will offer at a time of day that is convenient to students from Australia and New Zealand, but the show will go on regardless of how many students enroll.
If you have been waiting for just such an opportunity, please click here (then click the “Upcoming” tab) to reserve a place in the classroom, or here for detailed information about the course itself. Incidentally, these hours will work for anyone in the U.S. who would prefer to take the course in the evening. The hours, in Eastern U.S. time, are from 6:30 p.m. to 9:30 Friday and Saturday, June 29-30. This translates to 8:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. Sydney time, Saturday/Sunday; or 6:30 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. Hong Kong time.
Free to All Graduates
Incidentally, all seminar grads will soon have free access at all hours of the day to a recorded version of the seminar, as well as to the Q&A forums held in conjunction with each class. In addition, I am in the process of creating an advanced tutorial built around some especially difficult charts. It will also be free to seminar grads and accessible round-the-clock.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Tuesday, 12 June 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
