-- Posted Sunday, 1 July 2007 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
When the Mini-Dow futures broke above 13600 on Friday not long after the opening bell, we put out a bulletin in the chat room predicting they would reach a minimum 13680 shortly thereafter. The initial A-B thrust looked pretty powerful from a Hidden Pivot perspective, surpassing no fewer than three previous peaks that had been made earlier in the week. But no sooner had the futures broken through the clouds than they turned 180 degrees and plunged back to Earth. Here it is on a 15-minute chart:
You could chalk it up to end-of-quarter volatility, or subprime jitters, but any way you cut it, the Dow Industrials failed to convert an unusually strong opening into a romp-and-ream-‘em running of the bears. We should be asking ourselves, when is the last time we’ve seen Da Boyz pass up an opportunity like that? But, you say, maybe stocks simply ran out of gas after the opening flurry. We don’t think so. The turn from the morning’s highs was so sharp that it looked more like a failure of nerve to us.
In our experience, and absent any Friday Follies-type news, powerfully impulsive rallies do not simply blow past three prior peaks, only to reverse just as sharply and dive for cover. We’ll say it once again: Something has changed. The volatile swings that are beginning to manifest themselves with increasing frequency on the lesser charts hint that something bigger is disturbing investors.
We shall see. With the Fourth of July holiday just a few days away, seasonality is due to ratchet up bullishness to an irresistible pitch. If the Indoos can’t punch through to new highs next week, or at least rattle shorts’ cages a little, our suspicion will only grown that the bull has been infected with a fatal strain of doubt.
Shorting Apple
Meanwhile, whether coincidentally or not, we’ve put out a short on the shares of Apple (AAPL), as fine a proxy as we could have for overblown “story” stocks in this bull market. AAPL is still a tad shy of the Hidden Pivot rally target where we plan to initiate the a position, but it could get there as early as this week with a little more iPhonic hubris. There are actually two major Hidden Pivot price targets within 20 cents of each other, so this looks like a very promising bet to us. The precise targets are given, along with a vividly compelling chart, in the Intraday Notes section of Rick’s Picks.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Sunday, 1 July 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
