Rick’s Picks

Thursday, August 23, 2007

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

To paraphrase Tinkerbell, “A little more fairy dust, and u-u-u-p we go!”  We boasted here yesterday that we could short the market almost risklessly no matter how strong it acts, and so we did. Our trading vehicle was the Diamonds (DIA), an ETF that tracks the cash Dow average point for point, and our precise target was 132.00, a Hidden Pivot. The Diamonds fulfilled the forecast almost exactly with a powerful surge on the opening to 132.10. This allowed us to buy October 130 puts for 3.20, somewhat less than anticipated. For the next six hours, DIA was unable to rally more than a hundredth of a point above the initial target, and briefly pulled back to as low as 131.35.  However, with 30 minutes left in the session and no real sellers in sight, DaBoyz seized the advantage, popping DIA above the morning lows to an intraday peak at 132.40.  On a stop, we unhesitatingly exited our options at that time for 3.00.

The niggling loss we incurred was not without value, since the outcome told us exactly where the Dow is likely to head next.  We’ll try shorting there as well (see Rick’s Picks for the exact number), risking the usual nickels and dimes to try and catch what could always turn out to be an important top. Since the rally target is also our minimum upside projection at the moment, there may even be an opportunity for us to run with the crazed herd for a few hours. That’s about as bullish as we get:  bringing ourselves to “like” the market for an hour or two at most – provided it keeps generating bullish impulse legs on the 15-minute chart. Drop all the way down to the one-minute bars and it would be fair to say that we can no longer be fooled by the stock market, even for a minute.  Taking the element of surprise out of the stock market can make tape-watching pretty dull, if not absolutely predictable. And that’s just the way we like it.  Stop by the Rick’s Picks chat room sometime if you’d care to see how mellow a trading day can be.

***

Online Seminar: Last Call

There are now eight students signed up for this weekend’s online Hidden Pivot Seminar, so it’s still a relatively small class if you’d like to attend.  For the convenience in particular of participants from the U.K., the seminar will begin on both days at 4 p.m. London time (11 a.m. EDT), allowing students a leisurely Saturday and Sunday, as well as a dinner on Saturday night at a fashionable hour. 

If you've ever wanted to forecast stock and commodity prices as accurately as most gurus who do it for a living. this may be the best opportunity you will have to pursue that goal. To reserve a seat, simply click here, then on the “Upcoming” tab.  Detailed information about the course itself and the Hidden Pivot Method can be obtained by clicking here. All who do so will also receive a free Hidden Pivot calculator.

Free to All Graduates

Incidentally, all seminar grads now have free access at all hours of the day to a recorded version of the seminar, as well as to the Q&A forums held in conjunction with each class. In addition, I am in the process of creating an advanced tutorial built around some especially difficult charts. It will be available to seminar grads for a nominal fee. 

***

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com