-- Posted Friday, 24 August 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Friday, August 24, 2007
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
We usually think of the Fed as operating quietly behind the scenes to help keep the credit-based economy lubricated. Not this time, though. The central bank has had to come out in the open, mainly because the troubles it has been trying so frantically to paper over are as visible as the plague of weathered “For Sale” signs on our neighbor’s lawns. Given the extent of our credit woes, and the rate at which they have begun to metastasize, the Fed is no more able to work behind-the-scenes than a surgeon is able to treat systemic cancer non-invasively.
Now, the last thing in the world the Fed wants to do while it goes about its business is stir up a sense of drama. And yet, that is exactly what it has been doing, unavoidably so. A drum roll precedes Bernanke’s every move these days simply because so many millions of us, your editor included, are unable to imagine how the central bank is going to jump-start the weakest real estate market since the 1930s; or for that matter, how the bankers will “prevent” a bear market that is both inevitable and too scary to contemplate. We sense in our bones, however, that the so-far half-point cut in the discount rate is not likely to trigger a buying stampede, nor even the sort of mortgage re-fi binge that might be expected to prop up a consumer economy that is poised to topple into a potentially bottomless recession.
Paulson’s Clumsiness
The Fed is walking a tight-rope with no safety net, and we all know it. And that’s why we cringe whenever one of our would-be rescuers wobbles. On CNBC recently, Treasury Secretary Paulson was up on the high-wire trying to “manage expectations” in his clumsy way. The strain was showing, and his words fell to earth when he described the U.S. economy as “very, very healthy.”A single “very” would have been overkill, but the second was enough to trigger déjà vu even in those of us who weren’t around in 1929 to hear similarly disingenuous pronouncements.We shall hear many more such false reassurances as the U.S. economy slips into a deflation whose depth will have no historicalprecedent. The messenger will only be doing his job, telling us no more than he thinks we can stomach. For now, it would appear, even a glimpse of the truth evidently has been deemed too risky to allow.
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Online Seminar: Last Call
There are now eight students signed up for this weekend’s online Hidden Pivot Seminar, so it’s still a relatively small class if you’d like to attend. For the convenience in particular of participants from the U.K., the seminar will begin on both days at 4 p.m. London time (11 a.m. EDT), allowing students a leisurely Saturday and Sunday, as well as a dinner on Saturday night at a fashionable hour.
If you've ever wanted to forecast stock and commodity prices as accurately as most gurus who do it for a living. this may be the best opportunity you will have to pursue that goal. To reserve a seat, simply click here, then on the “Upcoming” tab. Detailed information about the course itself and the Hidden Pivot Method can be obtained by clicking here. All who do so will also receive a free Hidden Pivot calculator.
Free to All Graduates
Incidentally, all seminar grads now have free access at all hours of the day to a recorded version of the seminar, as well as to the Q&A forums held in conjunction with each class. In addition, I am in the process of creating an advanced tutorial built around some especially difficult charts. It will be available to seminar grads for a nominal fee.
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