-- Posted Tuesday, 23 October 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Surely a stock market trading near record highs and apparently in love with the housing bust, a looming recession, a collapsing dollar, $100 oil and the prospect of Hillary Clinton as our next president can shrug off lousy third-quarter earnings, right? We had our doubts, especially when we saw the S&P futures getting savaged Sunday night, continuing the earnings-induced selloff that lopped 367 points from the Dow Industrial Average on Friday. It was shortly before midnight, and the E-Mini S&P contract was down fourteen points, implying the Indoos would start the new week a hundred points in the hole. And so they did. But that was as low as the blue chip average went, and by day’s end it had worked its way back to a modest 45-point gain. Whatta guy!
We were prepared to take partial profits on a put position in the QQQQs, but not at the wishy-washy 52.02 downside target that went out to Rick’s Picks subscribers over the weekend. While that target was commensurate with a soft opening, we were looking for far worse than softness. An avalanche, maybe. We therefore advised as follows: “The nearest Hidden Pivot support lies at 52.02, but let's play fast and loose this morning and not sell any [of our November 52 put options] until the Cubes reach visually obvious support down around 51.34.” Fast and loose, indeed. The QQQQs trampolined off 52.02 exactly and never looked back.
With Apple and Google providing the push, perhaps it is no longer even possible for the QQQQs to decline in any significant way? Apple was up $4 most of the day, Google nearly $10. What’s more, it turns out AAPL shares were just getting warmed up. After the close, in an announcement that could have surprised no one, the company reported surging profits and revenues from iPod and iPhone. This caused the stock to leap a further $10, all but clinching a bullish opening on Tuesday for the Nasdaq index. Perhaps we’ll heed our own advice concerning Apple at this point, since our bull market target for the stock, disseminated when it was trading $20 lower, is still well above these levels. After AAPL’s performance yesterday, we’ll think twice before we act – and trade -- as though it’s not going to get there.
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