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-- Posted Friday, 30 November 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Friday, November 30, 2007

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

Yesterday’s forecasts showed no great prescience, since the short-squeeze that we’d expected to kick off the day was nowhere in evidence. Instead, the stock market opened soft and spent the rest of the day navel-gazing. What made the lack of follow-through especially surprising was that Asian stocks had risen sharply Wednesday night following the U.S. stock market’s lead.  We  might have expected this to spook shorts in the pre-dawn hours, but instead the E-mini S&Ps showed preternatural calm, frozen into an inscrutable four-point loss at the opening bell that suggested that neither bulls no bears were eager to place any bets.

We hesitate to predict anything dramatic for Friday but will mention nonetheless that yesterday’s humdrum action left us with a mildly bearish bias. That’s because the Indoos have now spent two days dithering over whether to take on the November 14 peak (see chart above). That’s one of several prior highs looming on the daily chart, and it is not an especially imposing one. As such, the hesitation hints of a weakening trend, notwithstanding the breathtaking force that set the bullish trend in motion three days ago.  By our runes, if the rally had any real guts, we should have expected to see it knock off the November 14 high, if only by a few points, before taking a breather.

Dollar Surprise

Another surprise is that the dollar hasn’t gotten pummeled by the same whiff of Fed easing that caused stocks to go bonkers. While this tends to reinforce the bullish call we made on the dollar when it was hitting bottom last week, it’s too early to say for sure, since the Dollar Index has generated only one bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart since the low.  Even so, the fact that the dollar has held its own in the last couple of days should be read as a sign of incipient strength. This was somewhat corroborated by the weak showing in December Gold, which closed yesterday beneath a Hidden Pivot support at 800.00 that we’d flagged as a dangerous threshold. The analysis spelled out what is likely to happen if the futures end the week below 800.00, so today’s action could prove crucial to the near-term outlook. 

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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted Friday, 30 November 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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