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-- Posted Friday, 14 December 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks Friday, December 14, 2007 “Phenomenally accurate forecasts” The stock market looked like hell yesterday, considering the announcement that retail sales for November were up 1.2% -- double the "estimate" of alleged economists. Another statistic out yesterday: Producer prices for finished goods jumped 3.2% -- well above the 1.7% estimated by, probably, the same bozos who grossly underestimated retail sales. (Where on earth do these guys get their numbers?) Not that either statistic can be trusted. Retail results supposedly were up across the board, not counting autos, but someone in the chat room said he’d read that 55.4% of the increase in revenues was attributable to higher gasoline prices. Did he perhaps confuse the two reports? 
Regardless, it seems difficult to believe that retail spending could be holding up so well in the face of a deepening real estate bust and incipient recession. We had hoped for a plausible explanation from Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist, David Rosenberg, who has already declared a recession, but his latest report merely cast skepticism on the sales figures. He says he’ll wait to see what December brings before he attempts to parse the meaning of November’s upbeat numbers. Concerning the leap in producer prices, it was interpreted just as we might have expected by the resident genius at Deloitte, chief economist Carl Steidtmann, who had this to say: "What the market is beginning to realize is that there's a much more severe inflation problem that is going to make it more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates." Here the U.S. sits, inches from the maw of the deepest deflationary abyss since the Great Depression, and our boy Carl is worried sick, evidently, about the "threat" of "inflation." Save your breath. And to all of you, dear readers, I would suggest tuning out anyone who even uses the word "inflation," unless it is to explain why it is exactly what we should NOT be worried about. $510 Trillion of ‘Unactualized’ Deflation After all, what is a niggling consumer inflation that can be reckoned in mere tens of billions of dollars when a deflationary juggernaut that is feeding off $510 TRILLION of very thinly collateralized derivatives has laid seize to the credit markets? And that is the crux of it, stated so simply that I would challenge the inflationists to try and refute it. No, I take that back. No more debates. In the dozen or so that I’ve already had with various inflationists, they have never scored a point. As how could they? Arguing that the Fed is going to inflate its way out of this mess is like asserting that a dash of clove oil on one’s tongue will cure lung cancer. Anyway, inflation, especially in the housing sector, is what we should be praying for. Not that the Fed isn’t trying to bring it about. What the heck are guys like Steidtmann smoking, anyway? *** Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Friday, 14 December 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
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