-- Posted Monday, 24 December 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Obligatory year-end mark-ups are bound to push stocks still higher into New Year’s Eve, but don’t expect the Dow to hit new record highs any time soon. That would require a 650-point thrust from these levels, and although a rally of that magnitude would require a trajectory less steep than the short-squeeze that added 700 points to the Industrial Average in the days immediately before and after Thanksgiving, buyers would face far more daunting challenges of supply this time around.
Look at the graph above and you can see why. The Thanksgiving rally pushed past just a single prior peak, but a thrust now of equal magnitude would have to get past three "priors" to achieve a new all-time high. Although we’re not going to rule that out, if it happens, odds favor a series of thrusts none of which exceeds more than a single prior peak. A more powerful push – i.e., one that surpasses two or more "priors" without a pause of more than a single day – seems implausible, since it would imply that we are in a true bull market with upside potential far above 2007’s highs.
In any event, the key to determining whether the long-term bull market is still intact lies in how easily the rallies puncture prior peaks on the hourly and daily charts. We’ll be tracking this indicator closely in the weeks ahead, so stay tuned to the
of Rick’s Picks if you’d rather not guess about such things.
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Aloha Rick. I just want to thank you personally for all of your posts in Comex Gold and Silver. I have traded gold/silver futures for a decade and there is NO ONE who has identified prices as accurately as you do. FACT: Your New Year's Eve call of a high at 643.10 call was dead-on (even if floor traders ran it up a few days later to flush the momentum traders.) But your subsequent forecast of a pullback low at 603.00 was mind boggling! I Sold my longs at 643.10 and covered my shorts at 603.00 -- the exact bottom.
-- Mark Johnson, Hawaiian subscriber
***
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Never Again Rely on ‘Experts’
The online class will be a particularly good opportunity for those who were unable to attend my classes last year in New York, Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Denver. If you’ve visited the Rick’s Picks chat room and marveled at the forecasting skill of seminar grads, this course is designed to quickly bring you up to their level. While I cannot guarantee that the course will turn you into a fabulously rich trader, I can promise, as stated above, that with a little diligence and practice, your ability to precisely predict price reversals in stocks, indexes, options and commodities will be at least as good as anyone whose forecasts you have ever paid for.
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