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No Need to Debate These ‘Hot’ Topics

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks


-- Posted Thursday, 3 January 2008 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Thursday, January 3, 2008

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”

Three topics are provoking quite a bit of discussion these days among the pundits: 1) the odds of recession; 2) the supposed inflation/deflation conundrum, and 3) likely moves by the Fed in the months ahead. As far as we’re concerned these are all non-issues, and debating them is just navel-gazing. To dispense with the first, the recession has already begun; it is perhaps only government statisticians and CNBC commentators who cannot sense it viscerally, as the rest of us already do. Talk to someone who works in retail if you’d rather not take our word for it. And keep in mind when you do that consumption accounts for more than two-thirds of this country’s GDP.

Concerning whether it is inflation or deflation that is more likely to do us in, that’s like asking, as an asteroid hurtles toward Earth, whether it will be the asteroid that wipes us out or some microbe that lives on the asteroid. On this matter, you should consult your realtor if there are any doubts, since he or she is probably close enough to deflation’s ground zero to be praying for a little of the opposite. It’s just simple math. How much inflation do you think the Fed can promote with real estate prices collapsing and a $510 Trillion derivatives bubble about to do the same? Your realtor will know this intuitively, since, as we implied above, he or she has been living on the very cusp of deflation.

Black Swan, or Turkey?

As for what the Fed may or may not be about to do, there was a cockamamie theory floating around on the Internet yesterday that the "black swan" event that would surprise us all, triggering a stock-market collapse, would be a move by the Fed to raise rates. Yeah, sure. That’s about as likely as O.J. finding the real killer. Black swan’s aside, we’re pretty sure the Fed is going to keep on doing exactly what it has been doing – i.e., lowering rates no matter what it, or anyone else says, and no matter how much Bernanke and his lackeys talk about a supposed "threat" of "inflation."

To repeat: Inflation is not the problem; rather, it is a farfetched solution at this point – and that is only if it could somehow affect real estate prices and nothing else. How likely is that? Not very, and so we’re back to deflation again. It is by now inevitable, so don’t waste your time listening to the clowns who continue to flog the "threat" of "inflation" -- or even more absurdly, of "stagflation." In their dreams, maybe. Make no mistake, we’re in for something far worse.

###

Your Last Chance!

"While perusing some of your posts chronologically from months back, I'm truly struck by the remarkable prescience of many of your fearless calls. The results are uncannily accurate. Thanks again for this opportunity to profit from your usually directionally correct analyses. The subscription is worth every penny - and then some."

-- Colin L. MacVeagh, a subscriber

Aloha Rick. I just want to thank you personally for all of your posts in Comex Gold and Silver. I have traded gold/silver futures for a decade and there is NO ONE who has identified prices as accurately as you do. FACT: Your New Year's Eve call of a high at 643.10 call was dead-on (even if floor traders ran it up a few days later to flush the momentum traders.) But your subsequent forecast of a pullback low at 603.00 was mind boggling! I Sold my longs at 643.10 and covered my shorts at 603.00 -- the exact bottom.

-- Mark Johnson, Hawaiian subscriber

***

Want to learn exactly how I do it? Then click here for details concerning the upcoming online Hidden Pivot Seminar on January 5-6 (Saturday/Sunday morning). Sign up now while there are still some seats left. The goal of this course is nothing less than to teach traders and investors of all levels of experience how to forecast stocks and commodities at least as accurately and confidently as those who do it successfully for a living.

With just a cursory understanding of the material taught in the course and a little bit of follow-up, you will never again have to ask an "expert" what he thinks about a particular stock or "the market." That’s because you will be better equipped yourself to answer the question simply by looking at a few charts.

The course is not about technical analysis in the conventional sense, with its tired and overly scrutinized trendlines, its familiar oscillators, channels, volume indicators, and all the rest, Rather, it is a way of looking at charts with a fresh eye – to see charts as "art," with emphasis on visual elements of harmony, symmetry, and, indeed, beauty. My annotated charts do not look even remotely like those of other technicians, and that is why the "buy" and "sell" signals that come from them rarely coincide with those favored and used by the herd.

Never Again Rely on ‘Experts’

The online class will be a particularly good opportunity for those who were unable to attend my classes last year in New York, Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Denver. If you’ve visited the Rick’s Picks chat room and marveled at the forecasting skill of seminar grads, this course is designed to quickly bring you up to their level. While I cannot guarantee that the course will turn you into a fabulously rich trader, I can promise, as stated above, that with a little diligence and practice, your ability to precisely predict price reversals in stocks, indexes, options and commodities will be at least as good as anyone whose forecasts you have ever paid for.

Although the on-site course was offered for as much as $2,000, I am offering it online for $960, since many of the expenses incurred in holding "live" seminars – including hotel and travel costs, and the rental of conference facilities -- are not a factor. If you are seriously interested in attending, click here for more information, or go directly to the registration page by clicking here, then clicking the "UPCOMING" tab.


-- Posted Thursday, 3 January 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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