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-- Posted Wednesday, 19 March 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

The second epic short-squeeze in a little more than a week has sent bears a clear message: If you want to get rich betting on the sure thing, you had better be prepared to die trying. The Dow Industrials popped for a 420-point gain yesterday, driven as always by hysterical short-covering. Compounding the bears’ shock and awe was the fact that the catalyst for this latest rally was a news announcement that should have disappointed investors. A 100-basis-point easing had been all but ordained by the bond markets, but the actual cut came in at 75 basis points. Rather than plunging in despair, however, stocks sold off only moderately in the gratuitous gyrations that followed. Bears need only have looked in a mirror to see what was holding stocks up.

So why is shorting this market a “sure thing”?  We’ve cited a growing list of reasons and now note that even the relative optimists have conceded that the most important of those reasons, the ongoing real estate collapse, is looking more and more like a 1930s-style dreadnought. Adding to the gloom is that no one seems able to imagine a decisive end to it, only the suspiciously vague prospect of an economic rebound “in the second half.”  There is also abundant statistical evidence of deepening recession, plus a string of would-be bank failures that have been growing more colossal by the week. As for that vast army of bozos who have always believed that the Fed “would never let it happen,” evidence grows that the crisis is bigger not only than the Federal Reserve, but much bigger, even, than all of the central banks acting in concert to try and stop it. Uncle Sam alone has thrown a trillion dollars at the problem so far, manifestly failing to restore confidence in the financial system.

The Last Bear

Meanwhile, these psychotic, 400-point rallies in the Dow do not augur renewed confidence. They are being driven almost entirely by short-covering, and even the otherwise clueless news anchors are starting to dismiss them as meaningless.  One of these days, when the very last bear’s short position has been liquidated, stocks are going to fall so steeply that even the Plunge Protection Team will call for back-up.  On that day, the financial collapse that so many have been expecting will unfold in just a few days and with enough power to leave the global economy in ruins for a generation.

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You Can Take the Seminar at Night

There’s good news if you’ve wanted to take the Hidden Pivot course but have been unable to attend on weekend mornings, when the class has typically been held.  In mid-April, I’ll be conducting the six-hour class over two consecutive evenings – Wednesday and Thursday, April 16-17, from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. MDT.  Click here, and then on the “Upcoming” tab to register; or here if you would like more information as well as a detailed description of the Hidden Pivot Method and a free Hidden Pivot calculator.

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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted Wednesday, 19 March 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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