-- Posted Thursday, 17 July 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Thursday, July 17, 2008
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Bears looking for the culprit that has been keeping this deadest-of-dead-duck stock markets aloft should look in the mirror. Although there are indeed a hundred great reasons for the Dow Industrials to be trading at half their current levels, the implied adjustment is unlikely to happen as long as everyone is betting aggressively on it. And “everyone” clearly is betting on a collapse right now, to judge from the hysterical power of yesterday’s rally, an almost daily occurrence any more.
Some traders in the Rick’s Picks chat room were itching to get short at every possible opportunity, which in this case meant at the Hidden Pivot targets of minor rallies during the day. The idea was to risk a few ticks on each trade, recouping any losses and then some when the stock market finally collapsed. It never did, though. Shares paused briefly at each of our targets, only to quickly recover and head still higher to the next target. You could have made money shorting with this method if you were nimble, but in retrospect, being long the whole way up was a much less challenging way to go.
Don’t Impede Lunatics
With an hour or so left in the session and the Dow up about 200 points, we posted the following warning in the chat room: “It's really not worth trying to get in front of this lunatic frenzy, since it is being driven by bears who are trying to do [exactly] that. If I'm reading [things] correctly, shorts will be stranded at the high of the day on the final bar. The [stock market] is saying… “Hey, sailor, if you want to short me, you're going to have to do it on the final bell and spend a sleepless night.” I'll lay odds on this one.
No one in the chat room took the bet, since anyone short yesterday’s wilding spree would have been entertaining serious doubts about remaining short into the close. Not that we won’t keep trying, especially if we can lay ‘em out at levels where stocks are likely to recede, even if only briefly. But we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the best shorts ultimately turn out to have been all but unshortable. It’s the nature of the beast. To those who had the guts to go home short Wednesday night, we tip our hats. Almost invariably, a little such daring is necessary to reap the most spectacular rewards.
***
Last Chance to Sign Up
Because of family vacation plans, I will be able to offer the Hidden Pivot Seminar only once this summer – on two consecutive weekday evenings, July 23-24. If you’ve been thinking about signing up, now is the time to do it, since once this class is full there will not be another opportunity to take it until fall. Click here, and then on the “Upcoming” tab to register; or here if you would like more information as well as a detailed description of the Hidden Pivot Method and a free Hidden Pivot calculator (our latest model, perfect for beginners).
***
Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Thursday, 17 July 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
