-- Posted Wednesday, 13 August 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Until the other day, we’d been missing our friend Karim in the Rick’s Picks chat room – not only because he’s a seasoned institutional trader who is comfortable with “size,” but because he was always a calming presence in the room. This was especially true on days when quotes for precious metals were swooning. Who better to advise, comfort and console than a trader positioned to benefit from sharp declines in the prices of bullion? Karim kept philosophical company with some of the other precious-metal bulls who frequent the room, including Andy and Nutcase, trading pros who have been building positions for so long that, to them, each new selloff in gold and silver is like manna from heaven.
I mention all this because, with crude and precious metals falling out of bed the other day, Karim turned up after a long absence to take a well-earned bow. Gold and silver were crashing through support on their way to dreadful losses when someone in the room remarked that this was the kind of day Karim might be enjoying – assuming he’d stuck with his positions when they went heavily against him in July. Lo, as if he’d been waiting in the wings, Karim ventured forth with a howdya do. Given the timing, we initially thought it was an impostor using Karim’s name. But a check of the log revealed that it was indeed our old friend.
For the Record
With at least 30 traders and lurkers in the room, he went on record with a prediction that stocks, metals and crude are headed lower, bonds higher. This sounds about right to us, although we prefer to take our forecasts one Hidden Pivot target at a time. For that reason, we regard Gold’s low yesterday at 808.60 as potentially important, since we’d projected a tradable low very close to it, at 810.20. We initially read the small breach of the target Tuesday morning as a sign of more weakness to come, but when Gold instead shot higher, we turned cautiously bullish like nearly everyone else with a long-term bias.
Concerning crude, like Karim we are in the “extremist” camp that expects not mere weakness, but a total collapse. We went on record here yesterday with a projection of $74 a barrel, but it is based on an arbitrary 50% selloff from the highs rather than on a Hidden Pivot target. Our gut says that much lower prices will be seen – perhaps in the $40-a-barrel range. More immediately, however, a Hidden Pivot target just above $100 suggests that crude has a few ugly days ahead before it can muster an all-out, take-no-prisoners assault on shorts.
The chat room is a great place for the discipline and good habits of veteran traders to rub off on the less experienced, and so we are always grateful to have a sprinkling of pros in the room during market hours. If you’re in the neighborhood, please do stop by. A free one-day pass to the entire site awaits you by clicking here.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Wednesday, 13 August 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
