-- Posted Wednesday, 27 August 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick's Picks
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
"Phenomenally accurate forecasts"
You know Wall Street is feeling pretty glum when a downbeat economic forecast from the Fed fails to lift its spirits. There was a time when investors would celebrate such news, since it supposedly raised the odds of more Fed easing – or at least, diminished the odds of more tightening. Now, it would appear, bad economic news is no longer good economic news, even when it's so bad that no one other than Kudlow can see even a glimmer of hope for recovery before 2010 or so. That's a long time to go without a solid upswing, especially considering the country's been in recession for more than a year already.
We're not talking about "official" recession, of course, since that kind of recession is likely to remain invisible to official statisticians until unemployment pushes above 10% and soup kitchens start springing up in Westchester County. No, we mean the kind of recession that has already whacked consumers so hard that it looks like only Wal-Mart is certain to survive among the retailers, and McDonald's among purveyors of fast food.
We don't know whether the recession has claimed any victims in our own neighborhood near Boulder, Colorado, but the local mall has been dying almost since it opened eight years ago. Lord & Taylor was the first anchor tenant to call it quits, but the trend has accelerated in the last couple of years, taking down Sharper Image, Harry & David's, Appliance World, Hold Everything, a half-dozen restaurants and, most recently, a fast-food favorite of ours, Steak Escape. Flatiron Mall has an out-of-doors section called The Village, but so many vendors have moved out that it has become gangrenous appendage. The display windows of all of the shuttered stores promise "A New Concept in Retailing" coming "soon," but shoppers are not holding their breath. In fact, if there's a publicly traded bank still making loans to mall developers, we would love to hear about it, since its stock would be our candidate for short-sale-of-the-month.
Even Better Than Toyota
Concerning our neighborhood, although the guy next door just sold his house for close to the asking price, other homes nearby have sat on the market for six months or more, and prices have been stagnant-to-lower. That's even though Conoco-Philips is coming to town in a big way with the creation of an institute for energy research that supposedly will support an estimated 7,500 white-collar jobs. These days, that beats a Toyota factory by a mile, or even the kind of clean, light industry that every city in America would love to attract. More typical is the town adjacent to mine, Broomfield, which went all out to attract retailers and nothing but. Although it looked like they had a gold mine when Flatiron Mall first opened, the shopping center now looks more like a $300 million albatross. Even nearby Boulder, a bastion of trust-fund babies and conspicuously inconspicuous consumption, may have bet too heavily on retail revenues as a source of tax money. We can only hope that when times get tough, they won't follow San Francisco's onerous example, quadrupling parking fees and fines in a futile attempt to cover a huge (i.e., $300 million) deficit.
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Fall Seminar September 10-11
Would you like to learn how to forecast price swings and trends as accurately as gurus who do it for a living? If you think learning such skills is beyond you, then you haven't visited the Rick's Picks chat room lately. More and more graduates of the online, six-hour Hidden Pivot Seminar can be found there each day, comparing notes, trading confidently and forecasting with the skill and accuracy of the professional tape-watcher. But don't take our word for it. Drop by sometime and ask a seminar graduate yourself. You can get a one-day pass by clicking here. Because seats for the class are limited, if you would like to sign up now, click here, and then on the "Upcoming" tab to register; or here if you would like more information as well as a detailed description of the Hidden Pivot Method and a free Hidden Pivot calculator (our latest model, designed for beginners).
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Winning Essays
In conjunction with the upcoming seminar, we'll soon be announcing the winners of the Rick's Picks essay competition on the topic "How to Save America." Over the next few weeks, the best of the more than 50 essays that were submitted will be published here. Top prize is a full scholarship to the Hidden Pivot Seminar and online tutorials, with numerous other prizes to be awarded.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers' initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Wednesday, 27 August 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
