-- Posted Thursday, 18 September 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Thursday, September 18, 2008
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Strongly trending markets have yielded an apparent bonus, causing stocks, futures and options to move more precisely than ever to our Hidden Pivot targets. Gold, for one, appears to have put in an important bottom within a single dollar of a 738.80 target that went out to subscribers on September 10. With the Comex December contract trading $40 higher, at 778.80, here’s the recommendation that was disseminated in the form of a Rick’s picks tout: “A 738.80 target broached yesterday in the chat room is my minimum downside projection for the near term, but if the futures close below it, that would create additional downside jeopardy to as low as 628.00. The pattern speaks with authority, since the AB impulse portion was sufficiently powerful to breach two internal and one external lows on the weekly chart without a correction. “
Fortunately, December Gold did not breach 738.80; for if it had, especially on a closing basis, it would have dramatically increased the odds of a further fall to $628. As gold began to rebound we turned cautious, although not bearish, with this analysis: “For all we can tell at this point, the 738.80 low recorded yesterday could be Gold's worst moment for the next fifty years. But we'll need to start seeing some bullish impulse legs on the lesser charts to ease our suspicion that the worst may not in fact be past. For today, that would imply a thrust exceeding 763.10, a tiny but nonetheless significant "external" peak shown on the accompanying chart.”
Yesterday, the bullish impulse leg we were waiting for came like a bolt from the blue, clearing the first of two key hurdles that lie between current levels and the promised land above $1000. The higher of the two obstacles is a tiny but technically important peak that is identified precisely in the Touts section of Thursday’s newsletter.
Worst Still Ahead
There is also a very bearish short-term target for the E-Mini S&P that I have reiterated for your benefit, since it implies a corresponding drop in the Dow Industrials of substantially more than 500 points over the next 5-7 days. Non-subscribers can get a look at this target with a one-day pass to Rick’s Picks that is available by clicking here. (If you’ve already used up your one-day pass, you can get paid access to the site by signing up for a one-month membership at our introductory rate. Click here.]
While you’re visiting, you might also want to check out my latest targets for numerous bank stocks in the Intraday Notes section. Most of them have collapsed to the worst-case targets that I sent out in May, but some, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman, have actually exceeded their worst case targets and are therefore in need of updates. Miraculously, Wells Fargo is actually trading above its May price after having crashed in mid-July to a low that came within 70 cents of the target sent out in May.
Those of you who requested and received these forecasts may recall that I’d projected “oblivion” for the shares of Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and Bear Stearns (BSC), and $3.19 for Lehman Brothers (LEH), which at the time was selling for a fat $36.72. Here is the list, which includes for each stock, respectively, its price as of May 31; a minimum downside projection as of May 31; and a longer-term target if the first was breached even slightly. I have also added in brackets the price as of today; and, the actual low that achieved so far. Here’s the list:
Bank Shares Collapsed as Predicted
B of A BAC; 34.01 in May [now 27.20]; Bad: 35.16 / Worse: 25.24 [so-far low: 18.44]
Wells Fargo WFC; 27.57 in May [now 33.43]; 27.86 / 21.16 [so-far: 20
Citigroup C; 21.86 in May [now 14.03); 18.70/10.05 [so-far low 13.03]
General Electric GE; 30.65 in May; [now 23.39] 33.73/28.95 [so-far low: 22.16]
Bear Stearns BSC; 9.34 in May; headed for oblivion
Lehman Brothers LEH: 36.72 in May [now 0.13]; 26.34 / 3.19 [so-far low: 10 cents]
Goldman Sachs GS; 175.95 [now 114.50] in May; 156.41 / 109.49 [so-far low: 97.78]
Merrill Lynch MER 43.86 [now 19;36]: 30.25 / 6.50 [so-far low: 16.25]
Wachovia WB: 23.77 in May [now 9.12]; 27.87 / 15.53 [so-far low: 7.80]
UBS UBS 23.61 in May [now 13.14]; 18.68 / 1.62 [so-far low: 12.22]
Deutsche Bank DB; 106.55 in May [now 70.40]; 106.41/89.85 [so-far low: 69.59]
Fannie Mae (FNM; 26.95): 10.32 / headed for oblivion
Federal Home Loan (FRE; 25.39): 15.69 / headed for oblivion
***
Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Thursday, 18 September 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
