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-- Posted Wednesday, 29 October 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks Wednesday, October 28, 2008 “Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Years from now, when the Dow Average is wallowing below 3000 and we hear some windbag brag about how he made a fortune shorting the bear market the whole way down, we’ll remind him of the short squeeze that occurred on October 28, 2008. The rally was Mr. Market’s way of telling bears that it’s not always possible, let alone easy, to make a pile of dough by betting on the sure thing. And we do think that the ongoing collapse of the stock market is a sure thing, even if there will always be interruptions such as yesterday’s. But when the hubris dies down, stocks will still be in a bear market, the economy will still be slipping into the deepest bog since the 1930s, most of the largest banks in the world will still be verging on failure, home prices will still be dropping like a brick, and credit deflation will still be threatening to asphyxiate borrowers and lenders alike.
 In short, nothing will have changed even - if Kudlow is saying that the stock market, supposedly prescient as always, has glimpsed recovery in 2009. In fact, the stock market is about as prescient as a meatloaf, and nascent bull markets do not so much predict economic recoveries as engender the psychological changes that cause them. We are confident this cyclical turn will occur eventually - just not before the Kondratiev cycle’s scheduled bottom around 2015. In the meantime, we’d suggest that speculators do breathing exercises while contemplating a monthly chart of the Dow Industrials. Note in candlestick rendition above that Tuesday’s maniacal short-squeeze did not recoup even half of October losses represented by the final bar. That would require yet another thrust to at least 9368 -- 303 points above Tuesday’s settlement price. Gold Bulletin In after-hours trading Tuesday night, December Gold was stealing up on a bullish tripwire at 761.60 that is shown in the chart. A print at that price would make further upside to at least 776.40 a good bet. However, when we identified this rally target two days ago in a trade recommendation, we said it would take a little more than that - specifically, a bullish thrust exceeding 782.20 - to rout sellers for the rest of the week. 
*** Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Wednesday, 29 October 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
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