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-- Posted Tuesday, 24 March 2009 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Our most recent price targets for Gold and the Mini-S&P were more ambitious than usual because we'd planned to be away from our desk for a couple of days on a family ski trip. Imagine our surprise when we came off the slopes and discovered that the extravagant, cover-our-butt targets we'd computed for these two trading vehicles had actually been surpassed by day's end, albeit not by much. In the case of Gold, our worst-case downside target for the near term was 938.50 -- a $17.70 decline. In actuality, the June contract traded down to 936.00, hinting of further weakness to come. 
At least one subscriber, Phil D., evidently made hay with these numbers, and graciously wrote to tell us about it: "I exited the full contract position today. Actually, I rolled it over to June this morning but exited on the break below your midpoint number. An attempt to re-enter at the D point was stopped out...[but] even with the June losses subtracted, my net gain of over $6,000 is now locked in and I was spared most of the sharp sell-off. Your analysis was the basis of my timing on both entry and exit." Nice work, Phil. For the record, it is  trading futures, not forecasting them, that is the hardest part of making a buck in this game. Can we do it again? Well, past performance, as the fine print says, is no guarantee of future success. Telling a Bluff from the Real Thing We don't know if any subscribers had similar success converting the S&P forecast to moolah. However, anyone watching stocks trade Sunday night could have seen that something was brewing. Here's the analysis that went out at the time, updating trading advice that had been disseminated to subscribers earlier in the evening, when the S&P mini was trading around 776.00: "DaBoyz have applied a rather vicious short squeeze Sunday night, although there is not a headline in sight at the moment that would nominally justify such brazenness. So that we don’t mistake a good bluff for the real thing, let’s use a 789.50 print as our benchmark, since that’s what it would take to turn the hourly chart unmistakably bullish. Above 789.50, the futures would have an implied minimum rally target of 809.50, a shortable target, stop 810.25, given here earlier; or if any higher, 817.00." At the end of the day, the futures had actually exceeded my tea-leave guess by a couple of points, rallying an amazing 57 points to peak at 821.00. The Dow was well in-step, up 498 points on the day. What are the odds that stocks will head significantly higher? Tuesday's Picks will try to answer that question with the usual pseudo-scientific jargon, based on whatever the I Ching would have us know. Stay tuned !
-- Posted Tuesday, 24 March 2009 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
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