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-- Posted Wednesday, 10 June 2009 | Digg This Article | | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”

The jury is still out on our favorite stock market bellwether, Goldman Sachs, since the shares of the well-connected banking firm failed yesterday to push above an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 151.24. Although the stock popped just high enough to stop us out of a profitable short position held from within a penny of the recent top, the rally fizzled after a head-fake on the opening. Goldman ended the day up just 56 cents, performing in-line with a generally turgid market. Yesterday we said Goldman could cruise all the way up to 171.87 if it gets past a lesser Hidden Pivot resistance at 153.50. Although Tuesday’s price action arguably left the stock in a bullish holding pattern, one might have expected more, given that ten of America’s biggest banks have been deemed sufficiently healthy to allow them to pay back $68 billion in TARP money that they borrowed from the Treasury.

Perhaps those who bought the rumor of the banks’ return to nominal solvency were not impressed by the news, but in our opinion yesterday’s bullish TARP story should have given more boost to the financial sector as a whole.  So why did the news fall flat? We’d like to think investors have figured out that the buzz can’t get much better for the banks. After all, the purpose of TARP was to pump up the share prices of banks so that they could raise capital by unloading said shares on the usual suckers. But now that that has been achieved, what comes next?  The feds may be able to sustain the illusion that the banks are “healthy” for yet a while longer, but sooner or later it will become evident that would-be borrowers are not in such great shape themselves. That is an illusion far more difficult to create, let alone sustain. In fact, most households know just how deep the damage has gone:  At least thirty million homeowners are still underwater on their mortgages and perhaps as many savers have lost 30% to 50% of their nest eggs in the last two years. For them, TARP has about as much meaning as the latest eight-page Privacy Statement from their banks.

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Rick's Picks publishes a daily trading newsletter for gold, stock, commodity, and mini-index traders 240 times per year. Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers' initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2009, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted Wednesday, 10 June 2009 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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