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-- Posted Tuesday, 5 January 2010 | Digg This Article | | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks Tuesday, January 5, 2009 “Phenomenally accurate forecasts” Wall Street traders bought just about everything in sight yesterday, inspired by news of a strong performance by global manufacturers in December and some loose talk from a Fed muckety-muck, vice chairman Donald Cohen, who thinks tightening to head off perceived inflation threats “could be expensive.” U.S. manufacturing reportedly grew at the fastest pace in more than three years, purchasing managers said. Europe and Asia reported similar surges, although we’re having trouble imagining who’s going to buy all that new inventory. Last week, we tried without success to determine just what it is that is still made in this country. The question drew some spirited discussion in the Rick’s Picks forum, but in the end there were no clear answers. One thing’s for sure, though: Whatever we still make cannot be easily found at Wal-Mart.
But who cares, as long as the purchasing managers think business is picking up. At least one brokerage analyst bought into this story yesterday big-time: “The odds of a double-dip recession have gone from one-in-three to one-in-five,” said the resident genius at Morgan Keegan, one Don Ratajczak. As of Monday evening, we had not succeeded in reaching Ratajczak to see if we could get a bet down. Is he perhaps be laying off bets with Kudlow, the only guy we can think who might be willing to offer the same bet at ten-to one? Moving Into Healthcare Manufacturing uptick aside, we are curious ourselves about whether a genuine recovery has begun to take root. Anecdotally, it’s still the Great Recession, and the local retail scene seems to be growing bleaker by the month. Boulder restaurants in particular have struggled to stay afloat. Thirty have closed in just the last few months, and strip mall vacancies are a blight everywhere you look. Friends who have been successful in the past as Realtors have segued into other professions, most promisingly health care insurance. But we know only one friend who says business has picked up. This guy’s point of view counts for something, because he works with Fortune 500 manufacturers using “six sigma” math to help re-shape and refine their operations. His business was spectacularly successful until a couple of years ago, when it went in the tank. Lately, though, businesss has started to pick up, he says. Any readers out there with similar stories to share? If so, please do drop by the forum, that we might take encouragement from you. *** Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and option trading, and even experts can, and sometimes do, lose their proverbial shirts. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2009, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Tuesday, 5 January 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
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