news.goldseek.com >> 16 November 2011

Is the Yen putting in a long Term Top?
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
If one looks at a 10-20 year chart of the Yen one cannot help but come to the conclusion that the Yen is going to experience a huge correction at some point in time. The pressing question then, is exactly when will this occur? Nobody can give an exact date, but examination of 1 and 2 year charts reveals that we are getting closer and closer to this point.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 July 2011

Interesting Charts
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
When one looks at 1-3 year charts one can miss the larger picture and mistakenly come to the conclusion that all is well. This is why it is imperative that one look at both the long term and short term charts. We at TI have our own modified version of the Dow Theory which has proved to incredibly accurate and useful to us over the past 11 years. Our version of the theory places most of the emphasis on the Dow utilities. In essence the utilities must lead the way up or down and not languish.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 May 2010

Euro Crisis; The Hidden Agenda
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
While everyone is focusing on the so called obvious factors, they have missed the most important factor; the real reason behind the crisis. The crisis started in Greece and the top EU members knew they were going to bail out Greece and potentially any other member that needed help, but they pretended that they would not.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 May 2010

Dow’s New Highs All Lies
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
As the saying goes, a picture speaks a thousand words and the charts below quite clearly illustrates that the Dow has not put in a single new high in the past 3 years.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 May 2010

The Threat of Hyperinflation Real or Not?
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Higher Gold and Petrol prices are one of the clearest signs that inflationary forces are gathering steam. Do not confuse inflationary forces with inflation; inflation is defined as an increase in the supply of money.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 May 2010

Euro; the Worst Is Yet To Come
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
I think it is a given that Greece will have to default, everyone knows this, but they are just playing cat and mouse for now. Most Greeks are dead set against the new Austerity measures and they will likely throw this government out of power for the new changes they have instilled. The next government will cater to the people’s needs for fear of receiving the same treatment. Change is not wanted in Greece.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 May 2010

Strategic Mortgage Defaults the Next Time Bomb
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
We spoke of this issue several months ago and stated that we were possibly in the midst of a new trend. We no longer need to ponder about this anymore; we are, in fact witnessing a new trend.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 May 2010

Inflation; A positive development for the Astute investor
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
We all pretty much have felt the effects of inflation in one form or another. However, economists and the central bankers choose to define inflation as an increase in price of goods. This is a very clever way to actually hide what they are doing.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 May 2010

The Dangers of Quant Trading Models; Dow’s 1000 Point Drop a Prime Example
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The initial trigger for the drop in the Dow was probably due to fears that the Greek crisis was going to spread. One could credit this for 300 or maybe even a 400 point drop in the Dow; however, a 1000 point drop is quite another matter.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 May 2010

The ulterior Motive behind the Greek bailout
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Before we discuss this issue lets focus on some facts. Many individuals claim that Greece has to be bailed out to maintain stability in the financial markets. This is a bogus argument, in the short term it might be true, but in the long term it just delays the day of reckoning and makes the situation infinitely worse. You do not help an alcoholic by chastising him and then allowing him free access to booze; it won’t work.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 May 2010

Roast the PIIGS, and End the Euro Crisis
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The last meltdown was caused by the financial crisis in the United States, which was triggered by the onset of the housing and mortgage crisis. We now have the potential for a full blown currency crisis to unfold. Greek debt has been reduced to junk status and both Spain and Portugal have had their ratings lowered. This is going to make it much harder and more expensive for these 3 nations to borrow money, especially Greece and rightly so.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 April 2010

Gold, Silver, Palladium: True Bull Market
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
All the precious metals are behaving extremely well in the face of a stronger dollar; the standout player is Palladium. Palladium has refused to buckle under the face of a stronger dollar and instead continues to put in a series of new highs. This is what a true bull market looks like.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 April 2010

Bonds Nowhere To Go But Down
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
A lot of noise is being about the economy improving and even if things do continue to get better, there is a rather strong head wind building in the horizon. Interest rates have been slowly but surely rising over the past few months and given the current trend, it appears that the bond market has nowhere to go but down.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 April 2010

Dollar, Gold and Silver
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The dollar as expected has mounted a very strong rally, and it just missed its target of closing above 82 on a monthly basis by a few points. It did, however close above 81 on a monthly basis which indicates that it is going to trade higher before a top is in place. As long as it does not close below 78.00 on a weekly basis, the odds of it trading to the 85-86 ranges are rather high.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 April 2010

Anatomy of a Housing Crisis
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Freddie and Fannie certainly had a large role to play in the housing crisis and many may claim that they were the main contributors of the housing crisis which eventually resulted in a market meltdown. Before we proceed let’s get some background info on these two chaps.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 April 2010

The Engineering of a Financial Crisis
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The Dow continues to put in new highs but our 3 moving averages of new highs are trading well off the highs they put in last year. The 20 day moving average (current reading = 640) of new highs would have to surge past the 2500 mark to have a chance of putting in a new high. Based on this week’s readings it would have to surge 400% from its current reading. It is very strange and disturbing that a market that appears to be strong is actually not as strong as it appears to be when one examines its internal structure.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 March 2010

The Fannie May and Freddie Mac Debacle
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
When Geithner states that they will do everything to make sure these institutions have the capital they need to function, he is basically stating that they are willing to use tax payer’s money to fund two worthless entities, instead of dismantling them. Trying to keep these agencies floating is akin to pouring money into a bottomless pit.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 March 2010

The Competitive Currency Devaluation Era Gains Momentum
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The US is deflating its currency by printing money at a stupendous rate, China is devaluing its currency by pegging it to the weak Dollar and countries like Vietnam simply openly devalue their currency in order to maintain a competitive edge. Expect this trend to pick up steam; it’s now going to be a race to the bottom of the pit, and it will only end with a full blow currency crisis.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 March 2010

The Stealth Palladium Bull
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Palladium was the underdog of the precious metals sector for a long time, because for the most part it hardly received any attention. In the last few months this all changed and with the introduction of the Palladium ETF (PALL), Palladium has finally emerged from the shadows to the spotlight.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 March 2010

The Devalue or Die Era Is Picking Up Steam
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The US and criticizes China over is reluctance to let the Yuan appreciate and indirectly blame some of its woes (increasing budget deficits) on China keeping the Yuan pegged to the dollar. Let’s stop for a moment. Is this not the pot calling the kettle black syndrome? The US is debasing its currency and a mind boggling rate, printing new dollars to the tune of 1 plus trillion a year, and yet we have the nerve to call on China to revalue its Yuan.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 March 2010

Is Gold Starting To Trade Like A Currency?
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Gold has run into strong resistance every single time it has tried to trade past the 1140 mark. Secondly, it behaved very strangely on Monday and today (Friday, 12th march 2010) by dropping in the face of a lower dollar and this at least in the short term suggests that Gold is more likely to correct than trade to new highs. The weekly sell signal has been neutralized but not invalidated, and once it is activated again it should lead to a rather sharp pull back.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 March 2010

Robbing the Old to pay the Rich
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The real and only definition of inflation is an increase the supply of money. It is not defined as in an increase in price as so many economists love to falsely proclaim. The money supply has gone ballistic, our national debt has doubled in the last 10 years, and we continue to create money and a mind boggling rate.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 March 2010

Precious Metals and the Dollar
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The dollar has rallied very strongly easily taking out the lower end of the targets we projected several months ago. It almost closed above 81 on a monthly basis. Had it done this, it would have made the outlook even more bullish. The dollar has gone on to put in series of new 9 month highs and thus by contrast one would have expected Gold and the other precious metals to do the opposite. However, this has not taken place.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 February 2010

Gold and Silver
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
From high to Low Silver has dropped over 24%. From high to low Gold has so far shed only roughly 12%. Silver also did not take out its 2008 highs when Gold went on to put in a series of new all time highs. This is another massive intra market negative divergence signal and yet another reason to suggest that Gold could correct/consolidate for several months. On a positive note gold has held up remarkably well in the face of a very strong rally from the dollar. If it continues to hold up like this, then when the dollar rally finally fizzles out, one can expect gold to literally explode upwards.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 February 2010

Oil
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Oil recently mounted a strong short term rally and traded as high as 77 but pulled back just as fast. This inability to hold above 74 suggests that it is still in a consolidative/corrective phase; unless it trades above 74 on a weekly basis the odds favour a pull back to the 63-66 ranges.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 February 2010

Markets; Time to Dance or Time to Drop
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Looking further down the line (7-12 months ahead) there are going to be many opportunities in the commodity's sector as the world’s central governments are going to continue to destroy their currencies. Furthermore, supplies of many key commodities are declining across the board. The precious metals sector is certainly going to shine strongly over the long term as central bankers are creating new money at a mind numbing rate.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 February 2010

The Dollar
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
In terms of the dollar, we have a daily and a weekly buy signal in effect. Thus the current outlook on the dollar still remains rather bullish. On the Euro, we have a weekly sell and a daily sell signal in effect and so the outlook remains bearish. It could potentially trade all the way down to the 125 ranges.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 January 2010

Palladium; the Silent Champion
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
While we remained bullish on the precious metal's sector when it took a beating towards the end of 2008 to early 2009, instead of pushing Gold or silver our main focus was on Palladium. The reason, it was the single most ignored precious metal out there.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 January 2010

Gold, Overseas Investments and the Dollar
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
There are so many facts that clearly validate that Gold should continue to rise and the dollar should sink into the dust. However, the worst news for now has been priced into the dollar and when too many people start to take an extreme view, a turnaround is usually close at hand.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 January 2010

The Euro/Dollar Dance
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The potential for the dollar to mount a very strong rally increases with the passage of each, especially in light of the recent negative developments in Greece. A breakdown in Greece could trigger a domino effect by first affecting other weak countries such as Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. A strong rally in the dollar by default is going to lead a strong pull back in the Euro and this could in turn lead to a much stronger than expected pull back in Gold.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 December 2009

Bonds and Gold
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The Fed has been keeping interest rates very low hoping that both business and consumers will start to spend money they don't have as they used to in the past. In reality, consumers continue to borrow less. Consumer borrowing has dropped for 9 months in a row. The above chart of the 30 year bond indicates that long term yields have been slowly rising. The bond market determines long term rates and not the Feds.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 December 2009

The November Jobs Report
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The Government's report appears to be suspect. Jim Rogers openly states that all government statistics are blatant lies. Our belief is that the numbers are manipulated but the degree and depth of the manipulation is increasingly and becoming more open.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 December 2009

The Gold Bull; Time for A Breather Or?
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The Gold bull is far from over, but given that it is now extremely overbought, a pullback in the markets should not come as a surprise. If the pull back turns out to be a strong one, it should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 November 2009

Gold to Natural Gas Ratio and What It Could Potentially Mean
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Right now we have an extreme development in the natural gas market; natural gas prices have dropped to a multi year low and the oil to natural gas ratio and Gold to natural gas ratio are both trading in the extreme ranges. History illustrates that all extreme moves nearly always produce counter moves in the opposite direction which are just as strong if not stronger.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 November 2009

Has The Dow Put In A New 52 Week High? Absolutely Not
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
A lot of noise has been made each time the Dow traded to a new 52 week high and the same chorus was once again sung when it put in back to back new highs on Monday and Tuesday. A very short and simple calculation reveals that all these new highs are illusory in nature; like a mirage in the desert, it looks real but when you try to examine it from close, it vanishes.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 November 2009

Long Term Analysis of the Dow
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
When we compared the current pattern to that of the 1929-1930 Era in an article titled The Dow; ominous parallels to the 1929-1930 Era , we stated that the pattern was calling for the Dow to pull back all the way to the 1400 ranges. This does not mean we are actually stating that this will come to pass right now; we are just talking about possibilities.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 October 2009

Dow's 52 Week Highs Not Confirmed
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The 3 charts clearly illustrate the divergence between the Dow industrials, the Dow transports and utilities; the Dow has put in a series of new 52 week highs while the transports and utilities are struggling to get there. Prudence and caution are warranted now and traders should think twice before jumping into the markets.

news.goldseek.com >> 25 October 2009

Amazon; A New High, Not Really
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The so called big news is that Amazon finally rallied to a new all time high. The experts making these claims should be viewed as the blind leading the deaf. Many would question our audacity to make such a statement and to those who do we have 3 simple words “Pay close attention”.

Debt Crisis
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The Japanese markets have still not recovered after the real estate bubble which lasted from 1986-1990 despite having dropped interest rates to zero and throwing volumes of money at the problem. Look at the above chart, total Debt in 1990 was roughly 150 of GDP: today total debt is close to 290% and the market is still in a funk. Could this be what lies in store for the U.S?

news.goldseek.com >> 15 October 2009

Dollar Update
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
We are not long term dollar bulls, but we feel that dollar is due for a relief rally as it has mounted a very strong correction in a relatively short period of time. We felt the same way from late 2007 to early 2008 and went on record to state that the dollar would mount a very strong rally that would catch the majority with their trousers down.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 October 2009

A Step Back In Time
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The info below provides an interesting view of what took place in the 1929-1930 time periods. If one had to take away the dates, one would think that the writers were referring to current events. History clearly repeats itself and the stories posted below quite clearly illustrate this point. Our comments are posted in blue.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 October 2009

The Dow; Ominous Parallels to the 1929-1930 Era
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The Dow appears to have topped on the 23rd after trading as high as 9917 and ending the day on a negative note. Such an occurrence is called a key reversal day and usually marks the beginning of a corrective phase. If the Dow does not trade past 9600 soon and for a period of at least 5 days, then the odds favour that this correction is going to start to intensify.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 September 2009

The Bounce in the Housing Market, Interest rates and the Economy
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Stories such as the one listed below are going to increase in the months to come; indeed since that story came out in June, we have seen articles of a similar nature advocating that real estate has put in a bottom and that its time to buy. At some point even the most sceptical will feel inclined to believe that the housing sector has put in a bottom.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 July 2009

Random Musings
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
World wide grain production is already down this year and there are some estimates which suggest that this year’s crop could come in 30% lower than last years take. One of the main culprits is drought, which has been a major problem in the last few years. However now we have an even more sinister threat. The story below clearly points out what this threat is.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 July 2009

Hyperinflation and Gold
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The current pattern is projecting that Gold is going to trade in a wide channel formation for several more months, possibly as late as the 2nd quarter of next year, though it is more likely to be until the 1st quarter of next year. This also coincides with the fact that the dollar and the bond markets are expected to rally into next year.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 July 2009

Oil and Bonds
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
While we can draw many conclusions from the above charts the main one to focus on is inflation. These charts are clearly indicating that inflation is the next major threat and not deflation as most government economists are projecting. Once again, we would like to warn our subscribers that they should cut down on all levels of debt, use excess money to purchase bullion and commodities related stocks on all strong pull backs. The next 3-6 years are going to bring about unprecedented changes.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 June 2009

Inflation and the Dollar
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Inflation is defined as an increase in the money supply and not as many economists falsely refer to it as an increase in the cost of goods. The price increase is a direct result of inflation, but it is not the definition but just a symptom of inflation. If one looks at the above two charts one immediately spots how dramatically the money supply has risen in the last 12 months.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 May 2009

The Move into Hard Assets
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
China is aggressively jumping to hard assets again, they are seeking to unwind their position in the US dollar or at the very least hedge themselves against the upcoming hyperinflationary phase that is going to hit the entire world in the not to very distant future.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 May 2009

Hyperinflation and the Changes It Is Going To Generate
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
This article by no means deals with all the events that could, might or should unfold if and when we enter a period of hyperinflation; one could literally write a book if one dealt with all the potential scenarios. We have chosen to briefly focus on a few areas and our intention is to deal more with the remedy than spend endless time talking about the problem.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 April 2009

Random Musings
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Now that the Dow has rallied almost 1500 points from its lows, the experts are snapping out of their panic induced stupor, the masses are wondering what in the hell possessed them to dump everything at or very close to the bottom and the few that resisted the urge to surrender and give into panic are finally feeling somewhat vindicated. So what is the right response?

news.goldseek.com >> 7 April 2009

Copper; A Long Term Opportunity in the Making
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Copper traded past 150 for 9 days in a row and in the process hit its first upside target of 180 before pulling back. The next objective for copper would be to trade past 180 for 3-5 days in a row and in doing so set up a pattern that would trigger a move up to the 220-240 ranges before a stronger correction takes hold.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 March 2009

The Dow; Bottoming or Crashing
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Out of all 3 pending bubbles the one that is most likely to pop now is the bubble in the Bond markets. Investor’s flung massive amounts of money into bonds last year when they panicked, dumped all their holdings and fled for the hills. Make sure you have little to no exposure to this market.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 March 2009

Opportunities in the Precious Metals Sector
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Gold managed to surge past 960 and actually traded all the way to 1004 before rapidly pulling back. Even though the Dow has gone on to put in a series of new 52 week lows and has now traded well below 7000 , Gold has not surged to new highs, this suggests that the Gold sector could be in for a sharp and short correction which could roughly last 3 months.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 February 2009

Electricity and Coal
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
There are several ways to play this sector, some more rewarding than the others, but the simplest way if you are bullish, would be to purchase shares in KOL, the coal ETF. As market conditions are currently far from normal, individuals should refrain from taking huge bites, but instead deploy their money in bits and pieces. Finally, one needs to take the long term view, for the short term ride is bound to be volatile.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 January 2009

Copper and the Dollar
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
It is said that the economy usually mimics the copper markets, and upon examining the above chart of copper, it appears that the economy and copper are trending in the same direction. Copper is now closer to a bottom than a top and hence from this we can infer that the markets are also close to putting in some sort of bottom, if one takes a long term perspective.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 January 2009

Recessions; Are They Really As Bad As They Are Made Out To Be?
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Investors should not let fear overwhelm them; fear and euphoria play nasty tricks on one’s mind; opportunity is made to look like a disaster and disaster looks like opportunity. We still believe that the current economic situation will worsen before it gets better, but if you wait till the majority deem that it is safe to venture forth and purchase stocks, the train will have left the station, and you will be left holding a worthless ticket.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 December 2008

The Dow, Dollar, Gold and Oil
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Gold traded as high as 888, well within our suggested target range and subsequently pulled back. There is a chance it could trade into the suggested ranges one more time before putting in 3-6 month top, that should result in a re test of the 720 ranges. As stated before a break below 720 for more than 7-9 days could drag it all the way down to the 650 ranges. This will produce a mouth watering long term buying opportunity; the next leg up will probably result in gold testing the 1200 ranges.