news.goldseek.com >> 11 May 2008
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 May 2008 |
Oil to Gold Ratio and the Folly of creating fuel from Food
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Now it appears that this ratio is once again pointing in favour of gold and once again we would favour silver over gold as we think on a percentage basis the gains here will be far larger than those of Gold. Note that this does not mean that the Gold and Silver markets are going to take off immediately however it does suggest that investing in silver could produce more gains than investing in crude oil.
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news.goldseek.com >> 20 April 2008 |
Dow; Up, Down or Nowhere
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Once again lady luck smiled on us and our prediction came true within days of making it. From a high of 12530 last Tuesday, the Dow dropped to a low of roughly 12180 before mounting one of the largest one day rallies ever.
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news.goldseek.com >> 25 March 2008 |
Market Commentary
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
We will know by the end of this week whether our smart money indicator has flashed a buy signal or not but right now we are almost there as there is now a 96% chance that it will flash a buy. While nothing is guaranteed this is the closest we have been to getting a buy in over 3 years.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 February 2008 |
Palladium, Platinum, Gold and Electricity
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The price differential between Palladium and Platinum has now reached historic proportions; if one goes back all the way to 1977 the price differential between the two metals was never more than 550. Today the price differential is over 1300 dollars; Palladium is trading at roughly 420 and Platinum is trading at roughly 1800 dollars.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 February 2008 |
General Market Action
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
While negativity continues to rise; the chaps who short odd lot of shares are not shorting the markets as aggressively as we would like to them too. Usually when they capitulate and start too aggressively short a intermediate to long term tradable bottoms is close at hand.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 February 2008 |
Currencies
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The Fed was pushed to aggressively lower rates due to the so called credit crunch and sub prime mortgage crisis. The first series of cuts drove the dollar to a new low towards the end of Nov 07 and it looked like further rate cuts would have the same effect.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 February 2008 |
General Market Commentary
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
We stated in the last two weeks that our volatility indicators continue to put in new highs which suggested that market volatility would increase significantly. The action for the past few days very clearly illustrates this point; one day the market is up 150 points, the next day its down 200 points and then up again another 150 and so on.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 January 2008 |
Market Commentary
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
As we stated in the last two weeks it appeared that the Dow was set to pull back due to the rapid pace at which it had advanced and due to the sell signals our smart money indicator had flashed on the hourly charts. Our volatility readings are still sky high and this suggests that the markets are going to continue to remain highly volatile; hence continue to expect huge up and down moves but eventually the moves will start to occur more in the upward direction than the downward direction.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 December 2007 |
Market Update
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
It appears that the markets might be preparing for another rapid pull back and this pull back could be the one that launches the entire US market into a massive rally but this pull back could be circumvented by the lowering or the hint of lowering of interest rates.
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 December 2007 |
The Copper Outlook
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
This long term chart is indicating that in the mid term time frames China could experience what amounts to a minor recession. Thus copper could find support say at present level and rally all the way to the 3.80-4.10 ranges but then experience a hard pull back.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 December 2007 |
Dollar
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The dollar is still the worlds reserve currency and no mater what the world wants to do they cannot simply dump their dollar holdings and move into other currencies. First of all if they were to do this it would provide a “screaming buy opportunity” to make a fortune but this is not going to happen so we wont waste time looking at it. Secondly one has to remember that every single currency out there is just as rotten if not even more rotten than the dollar.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 December 2007 |
The Dow
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
In a short span of time the markets have already rallied from the lows as we envisioned. Data on Wednesday illustrated that the economy was stronger than expected and today the labour department reported that applications for jobless benefits dipped by 15,000 last week to a total of 338,000.
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news.goldseek.com >> 2 December 2007 |
Ultra long Term Market Outlook
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
If we look at a 50 year chart of the Dow the information it reveals is rather interesting to say the least. We decided to run the Dow against some of our proprietary indicators to see what might come up. We do not perform this analysis often because it’s very time consuming and mentally tiring.
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news.goldseek.com >> 25 November 2007 |
The Dow; Correction or Crash
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The markets rocketed up yesterday but the volume was very light and we would need a follow through to confirm that a possible new up trend has taken hold. We personally suspect that if there is a follow through rally it will not last and we will pull back one more time to test the intraday lows put back in August (12550-12600).
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 November 2007 |
Market Outlook
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The new is terrible, the outlook is gloomy and the doomsayers are having a field day. Once again the financial world is about to end at least as far as they are concerned and the masses are slowly starting to stampede for the exit which always happens to lead to the edge of steep cliff.
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news.goldseek.com >> 14 November 2007 |
Uranium Wars
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Bottom line is the Uranium bull is one that is going to be driven by the two most powerful forces in the universe and such a development is very rare and provides the astute investor with a window of opportunity that usually presents itself only once in a persons life time.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 November 2007 |
Market Commentary
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The press and the big short analysts all continue to talk about the effect of the now dying housing sector, the sub prime mortgage crisis, the liquidity crunch and whatever other nonsense they can dredge up. Yes this all valid news but it was valid news over 2 years ago and the market to some degree have already priced this junk in. What’s taking place now is just good old profit taking.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 November 2007 |
Palladium and Gold
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
This is 29 year chart of Gold and it very clearly illustrates that gold is in a very strong uptrend and has broken through a major zone of resistance. As this is a very long term chart this is a rather bullish development and as long as Gold now remains above 750 the intermediate outlook is going to be very bullish. As stated before the next target is now 900.
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 November 2007 |
Market Update
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The current market action reminds us of foot prints in the sand; as the tide rises it washes away these footprints and so on the next day it would appear as if no one had trodden on this beach at all. This unfortunately is the way the minds of most investors work.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 October 2007 |
Market Timing
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The only area that has been somewhat tricky to predict has been the very short term time frame and indeed this to be expected as markets are nothing but a manifestation of insanity in real time.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 October 2007 |
The Almost Unknown Precious Metal
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
P is for palladium as it’s for patience and no metal out there has demanded as much patience as this chap. Thus on the same token when it comes to handing out rewards we believe those who were patient enough to use every major pull to add to their positions will in turn reap tremendous rewards too.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 October 2007 |
Dollar Update
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Bottom line the dollar is closer to putting in a bottom then it is to being destroyed completely. History has shown that when the masses and the so called experts are sure of an outcome, that outcome is always denied and one that actually causes pain is delivered to them.
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news.goldseek.com >> 14 October 2007 |
Oil to Gold Ratio
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
In early February we stated that it would be far better to buy oil then gold based on the oil to gold ratio. The risk to reward favoured investing in oil. We then published this article and as expected the single celled Gold bugs responded with fury by firing of plethora of emails stating that we had lost our minds.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 October 2007 |
Market Commentary
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Surprisingly the Dow was able to cut through the 14,000 area with relative ease; the picture of a hot knife slicing through butter comes to mind. What appears to be lacking though is the intensity in volume.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 September 2007 |
Gold and Dollar Outlook
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
One major factor that everyone forgets is that Gold is not going up only because of inflation as the US has been debasing its currency for decades and for the most part Gold did nothing. The real reason is the huge demand that is emerging from the Asia and the Middle East due to their strengthening economies; individuals in both these zones place a very high value on gold.
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news.goldseek.com >> 12 August 2007 |
Market Outlook
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
While this correction appears to be brutal, it is only brutal to those who jumped in too late and who sit and think that the markets trade in one direction only. Nothing goes up forever just as nothing goes down forever; though things tend to trend upwards much longer then they do downwards. As stated risk takers can start looking at all the positions and identify the strongest plays out there and slowly nibble at these positions.
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 July 2007 |
Market Update
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Normally we would be inclined to call this a spectacular turn around given that the number of new highs are dramatically outpacing the number of new lows. However this change is occurring when all the big traders have left and so while it’s a positive it’s not something to focus on as the numbers are distorted due to the fact that the markets are very easily manipulated during these time frames.
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news.goldseek.com >> 9 July 2007 |
Inflation; Bad, Good or Great
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Many would simply characterise inflation as a very evil force; hardly would think of quoting it as good and almost no one would think of calling it great. However let’s stop here for a second and just examine the above statement. In a round about manner is that not reflective of the way most individuals think when they enter the markets; almost all of them think they will win; very few think they will lose some money and even less think that they could potentially lose it all.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 July 2007 |
Gold Outlook
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Gold has breached its main up trend line in both the 1, 2 and 3 year charts and thus there is a good chance that it could test the 630 price point level. If it fails to hold at this point (there is pretty strong support here) then the next support level becomes the 600 price point level; a very extreme move would take it down to the 570-585 ranges, a zone that provides extreme support. We would also view this as an incredible buying opportunity if it were to happen, though we would not hold our breadths as it’s an extreme move.
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 April 2007 |
Random Musings VIII
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
In 2004 the US borrowed the equivalent of 5% of its GDP; by the third quarter of 2006 this amount had soared to 6.5% of its GDP for a total of 860 billion dollars. If the current trend is maintained and there is no reason to see why it won’t be, then the US is on course to reach the 1 trillion mark in the very near future. The main question then is how long will this outrageous all you can eat buffet last?
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 April 2007 |
Iran’s long Term Energy Problems
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
While Iran has the world’s second largest reserves of Natural gas and also one of the world’s largest reserves of oil the long term energy situation here is far from bright. This is the life line of its economy yet the Iranian government is investing surprisingly rather small sums in maintaining the infrastructure and or increasing current production.
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 March 2007 |
Housing Bust
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
The chart above quite clearly illustrates how household debt has soared to a point where it accounts for huge portion of the GDP; this monstrous debt is now equivalent to 90% of the United States GDP. This also clearly illustrates how this economy has been financed by a mountain of debt; at the end of the day nothing new has been created other then a huge pile of debt. This sort of scenario cannot last indefinitely, eventually the assets that were over inflated must deflate and this is currently what’s happening in the housing sector.
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news.goldseek.com >> 5 March 2007 |
Random Musings VI
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Many a naysayer, many of which fall under the newsletter writers camp keep pumping the nonsense that all paper money will cease to exist and that everyone will revert to the gold and silver standard in the not too distant future. First of all they are about 1000 years too late and second of all they are in sore need of a mental check up. They forget to take mass psychology into consideration and one must understand that the biggest driving force anywhere is mass behaviour also known as Mass psychology.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 February 2007 |
Oil to Gold Ratio It Foretells an Interesting Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
We are not advocating that Gold is not a good investment; we are simply stating that the ratio above quite clearly illustrates which of the two will provide a better rate of return on capital in the short to intermediate time frames. Long term everyone should have a certain portion of their money in either Gold bullion or Silver bullion.
Random Musings V
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Another ominous warning sign that the housing meltdown has only begun and not ended is the huge drop in the practise of taking home equity loans. This is how most of the masses have been leading their lofty lifestyles and buying stuff with money they don’t really have. Now that house prices are falling they are running scared and the worst part is that their bill has actually increased significantly.