news.goldseek.com >> 9 April 2009

Sucker Rally!
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
Sucker rallies (or bull traps) in a bear market are a time-honoured tradition. Bear markets see many rebounds, ranging from feeble rises of maybe 10 per cent over a period of a couple of weeks to ones that last years and recoup anywhere from 50 per cent to even over 100 per cent from the low. Call it from the little sucker to the really big sucker.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 March 2009

What a Mess!
By: David Chapman, Bullion Management Group
The markets and the economy are in a mess. The authorities are throwing everything they can at it to try and save the financial system. But their approach is misguided; fighting a debt collapse with more debt at taxpayer expense is a plan that will ultimately fail miserably. But the rebound rally could be an opportunity to not only regain back some of the losses gleamed over the past 17 months but to raise cash and restructure, ready for the next phase of the great bear market of the first decade of the new millennium.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 March 2009

Friday the 13th
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
Today is Friday the 13th: according to superstition, either a day of good luck or bad luck. It occurs at least once a year. The fear of Friday the 13th is a form of triskaidekaphobia, which is a phobia of the number 13. This year it has occurred in February and March and will occur again in November.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 February 2009

Is A Bigger Nightmare Beginning?
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
The rebound we had expected in the first quarter or so of 2009 is in trouble, or at least on hold. The Obama bounce has so far become the Obama bust. We suppose the signs were there earlier. November 5, 2008 – the day after the election – the S&P 500 dropped 5.3 per cent. January 20 (Obama inauguration day) it dropped another 5.3 per cent. It is an ominous start. Maybe the expectations were too high.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 February 2009

From Bad to Worse?
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
An eye catching quote for sure and you may already have seen it. Although as far as we can determine it is a hoax. It wasn’t actually written by Marx. But it is making the rounds on the internet and tries to make him out as some sort of seer. Given in particular the events of this past week with the bailout plans for the giant banks, it does somehow seem appropriate.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 February 2009

It’s A Bailout World!
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
If anyone had any doubt about the enormity of the financial crisis gripping the world, look no further than at the amazing conversion of Canadian Prime Minister Stephan Harper and his Finance Minister Jim Flaherty from small c, small government, fiscal conservatives to big spending, big government, deficit hawks. This is not a comment on the actual merits of the budget; merely a note that Harper and Flaherty have joined the bailout world, even if it seems to be with some reluctance.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 January 2009

It’s A Depression!
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
This past weekend, visiting our local Chapters book store, we were struck with the large display up front of books telling us about the new depression, how we got there and how to survive it, books about the Great Depression and a host of others.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 January 2009

Bonds in a Bubble?
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
We keep reading all these articles about how bonds are in a bubble and that any day now the bubble will burst. Naturally when you see something going straight up, the contrarian in each one of us wants to say “Hey, that’s not right”. Many felt that way in the late 1990s when the NASDAQ was in its bubble with price earnings ratios over 100 and even as high as 200. So out came the short sellers, convinced that they would make a bundle when the bubble burst.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 January 2009

A Most Horrible Year - Could It Get Worse?
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
We suppose we could have premised this as “Annus Horibilis” but we weren’t sure whether the Queen would approve. We also couldn’t help but notice a John Mauldin missive that also used the same title “2008: Annus Horibilis, RIP” John Maudlin January 2, 2009. What can I say? We are all thinking the same thing.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 December 2008

Gold Looking Up Again
By: David Chapman, Union Securities
While all asset classes except government debt instruments have suffered in 2008, gold and silver and the precious metals stocks as measured by the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) have clearly outperformed this decade. But not only that; their outperformance has been consistent during periods of financial stress and underperformance in the broader market. That includes both the periods of inflation (the 1970’s) and deflation (the Great Depression).