-- Posted Tuesday, 20 March 2007 | Digg This Article
Your independent Swiss asset manager
THE TIMELESS PRECIOUS METAL FUND
THE SIERRA MADRE GOLD & SILVER VENTURE CAPITAL FUND
Follow-up No. 10 / March 20, 2007
US Dollar Index: RETURN ON ONE CONTRACT ($1,000 x Index) |
Sell Date | Contract No. | Sell Price | Total (USD) | Price Today | Value Today |
January 27, 2003 | 1 | 99.33 | 99'330.00 | | |
Total | 1 | 99.33 | 99'330.00 | 83.65 | 83,650.00 |
Profit | | | | | 15,680.00 |
Profit (in %) | | | | | 16% |
OUR LONG-TERM RECOMMENDATION | | REMAIN OR GO SHORT |
OUR SHORT-TERM RECOMMENDATION | | GO SHORT | |
| | | | | | |
The U.S. Dollar Index® is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies.
The six currencies and their trade weights are:
The twenty-year picture
While the past is not always a reliable guide as to what the future may bring, it can give us a prescience of what may lie ahead. The chart below reveals one thing for sure: the US-Dollar has lost more than 30% against a basket of foreign currencies over twenty years, but not in an uninterrupted line of course.
We also note that after a sharp fall that touched bottom first at the end of 1988, sharp rallies followed, up and down.
We wrote in November of 2005: “This could be an indication as to what lies in store for us!” and we concluded that the present rally (2005) may be followed by a sharp reversal in the coming weeks or months.” And indeed, in December of last year, the US-Dollar started to resume its down-trend.
So let us examine in more detail what could be the future direction of the US-Dollar against the basket of currencies displayed above.
The long-term picture
The US-Dollar moved through a significant down-trend line in March 2005, setting in motion further buying activity, also supported by a trend towards higher interest rates in the USA.
During the summer months, we registered a first peak at 90.77 followed by a second, higher one, at 92.63. At this stage, the US-Dollar sold off again, recovered again, but did not manage to go above 92.63.
“A classical head-and-shoulder pattern emerged which is now complete and promises further down-side pressure for the US-Dollar.”, we wrote in our Follow-up No. 8 dated May 26, 2006.
While many remained bullish for the US-Dollar, our prediction has come true and further US-Dollar weakness has an increasing chance to become reality.
Fundamental considerations do not favour a strong US-Dollar. The problems remain and interest rates in the USA are unlikely to move much higher in the near future. On the contrary, after a historic five-year boom propelled by a strong economy and low interest rate, the real estate market went bust in 2006, according to the final tally released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. Sales of existing single-family homes fell 8.4 percent to about 6.5 million, the biggest annual decline since a 14.8 percent drop in 1989. As the US-economy shows signs of weakening, driven by a crumbling housing market, interest may even start to fall.
In Europe, the tendency towards higher rates persist however, helping the EUR to move higher while the GBP has already reached the high of December 2005 against the US-Dollar.
U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 16 Mar 2007 at 08:54:48 AM GMT is:
This represents an increase of USD 205,601,529,810 since November of last year.
The estimated population of the United States is 301,195,585. So each citizen's share of this debt is $29,336.12. or $600 more than just five month ago.
The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $1.96 billion per day since September 29, 2006!
You should not forget to add the private debt!
The medium-term picture
“This reversal pattern shown above suggests that it is highly unlikely that the US Dollar Index will move back to a level above 90 points. As a matter of fact, the drop through the neckline of the formation down to the level of less than 84 and the subsequent pull-back towards 86 points, at which new selling pressure emerged, would favour a further decline to much lower levels.” What we wrote in May has now been confirmed. In fact, the double top at 87.30 set the stage for the decline down to the 82 point level.
The rebound that followed and puffed out just below the 86 point level confirms that the US Dollar has little strength left and should most likely resume its downward path. This down movement could accelerate once further weakness in the US economy becomes manifest and interest rates come down.
The short-term picture
“For the time being, we would remain short.”, we wrote in November of last year and now we have even less reason to change our opinion.
The recommendations were valid at the time of writing, viz. at
and may no longer be relevant at the time of reading.
Peter Zihlmann
www.pzim.com
www.timeless-gold.com
invest@pzim.com
Tel +41 44 268 51 10
Mobile +41 79 379 51 57
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Disclaimer: P. ZIHLMANN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AG does not accept any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever, that may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in the trading recommendations or in any accompanying chart analyses, whether communicated by word, or message, typed or spoken by any of its employees.
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-- Posted Tuesday, 20 March 2007 | Digg This Article
