LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
The Ongoing Bull Market

By: Mary Anne Aden and Pamela Aden, The Aden Forecast


-- Posted Monday, 28 April 2008 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com

 

The year is still young, yet it’s seen many commodities soar. From the precious metals, to the base metals, like copper and tin, to raw materials, to energy, like oil and natural gas, to the soft commodities, like corn and wheat... the commodity bull market has been flexing its muscles.

 

In the first quarter alone, gold was up 10%, silver gained even more, near 17%, and copper surged 25%.  This is in stark contrast to the stock market as the Dow Industrials lost 6% during this time.

 

The subprime crisis and its rippling effects have kept gold and silver strong since last Summer. In fact, it’s helped keep the gold price strong in all currencies. But the Bear Stearns emergency rescue seemed to be the final blow for now. It looks like it marked the end of a panic.

 

Since then, gold has been coming down from its $1004 record high posted on March 18.  The dollar has also formed a small bottom while stocks and interest rates have been rising (see Charts 1 and 2). The intermediate trend appears to be changing.  We stress the intermediate trend because the major trends are very much intact, which is up for gold and the metals, and down for the dollar.

 

 

 

GOLD: Time to consolidate

 

Gold’s C rise is finally over. After rising 55% in nine months, in one of the best intermediate rises in the current seven year bull market, it signaled several things.  Most important is the strength behind the bull market because new highs continued to be reached. 

 

Gold’s next step is likely to be a good downward correction that could take several months to develop. In other words, the gold price is poised to move lower in a decline we call D (see Chart 3A).  In a worst case D decline, gold could fall 22% (like it did in 2006), which would take it to the $780 level. If it declines by 15% (like it did in 2003), the weakness could end near $850. If gold holds above $840, it’ll be incredibly strong.

 

 

The Summer is normally a seasonally low time for gold and this current D decline, based on timing, could end in the June through August time period. This means buying gold during the Summer may end up being the best time to buy.

 

Gold is a cyclical market, sometimes amazingly so, and if the cycles continue as impressively as they have over the last seven years, this scenario is the most likely one (see A through D on Chart 3B).

 

This of course is baring any surprise move, like the U.S. invading Iran. But surprises tend to come at interesting times, like when the subprime problem started last Summer. Gold was set to rise in a C rise and this crisis helped push it to record highs.

 

BULL MARKET HAS MORE YEARS TO RUN

 

Some worry that the March peak was THE peak for gold. This is very unlikely considering the world situation and the economic imbalances today. Plus, demand for gold is growing strongly. It truly is an international, expanding market and it’s easy for people to buy. Last month, for instance, Chinese banks began trading gold futures.

 

The gold market is currently more powerful compared to the 1970s.  There is much more money behind the move. Whether it be China, India, the Middle East, Russia or elsewhere, the world has mega wealth and it’s acquiring gold.

 

What to watch for

 

Gold’s 65-week moving average works very well in identifying the major trend (see Chart 3A). The gold price has been consistently above this level since August, 2001. This average provides solid support at $770.  For now, gold is vulnerable below $950 (basis June) and it’ll be weak in a D decline once it stays clearly below $888.

 

--

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com


-- Posted Monday, 28 April 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.