-- Posted Thursday, 23 January 2003 | Digg This Article
note: due to a tech problem - we are posting yesterday afternoon's review this morning.
April Gold: Close = $361, +$2.4
Prices ran to another fresh contract high as investors remain on heightened alert as to what may unfold in the Middle East. With or without a conflict erupting, the potential for further economic fallout remains high, and as evidence of this one only need look to the US dollar near 3-year lows and a stock market that remains in quicksand. Also take note that the energy markets also surged to new contract highs, clearly an additional burden to the economy and consumers.
France and Germany are now stating that they won’t force Iraq to comply with the 12-year-old U.N. cease-fire resolution. One day to next the story on the periphery will change, but underneath it all President Bush continues to hold firm in his resolve to disarm Saddam as per the original cease fire resolutions. It seems energy, metals, stock, etc. traders are nervously bidding up markets in anticipation of explosive fundamentals surfacing.
This environment has been ripe for a gold rally. The geopolitical fuel that is feeding the bullish gold cause won’t burn off anytime soon, and that should be enough to keep prices buoyant. The multitude of bullish variables supporting gold prices are not likely to dissipate soon, so expect gold to trudge higher. An article “Gold gain is imminent, forecaster says” by Thom Calandra of marketwatch.com references someone who feels we’ll approach $1,000 an ounce within a year or two.
“Cut to the chase: Turk (James Turk, Editor of Freemarket Gold & Money Report) sees gold, currently at $355 an ounce, rising to $366 by the end of January, which is just 10 days away. The price of the metal will reach $934 an ounce by February 2004, he says.”
But not everyone is so unabashedly bullish:
“Most of the professional analysts are in a tight range of $330 to $390 an ounce or so for 2003. None of the pros breathes a syllable of support for a 2003-2004 gold price that is substantially above $400.
Technical analysts are somewhat more convinced that gold will have a lasting benefit from economic turmoil, Middle East war and a declining dollar. Technical analyst Jordan Kotick at the investment bank JP Morgan Chase says gold could approach $430 per ounce in coming years. “
Technicals and fundamentals indicate further buoyancy. In fact, corrective dips in the price of gold could be looked upon as buying opportunities. The geopolitical, financial and sentiment factors propelling the market higher will be with us awhile. The longer-term bullish scenario appears intact and it’s highly probable that $400 will be hit early this year. Be sure to watch TradeScope daily for order adjustments. Remember, futures and options offer much flexibility as one can just as easily be short or long any market. Each contract/option = 100 ounces, a $1 move in a futures contract = $100. Contact me anytime to discuss strategies to fit your needs.
To open an account and receive trading recommendations on gold futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com. Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit. Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.
March Silver: Close = 484.8, +2.8-cents
Not wanting to remain on the sidelines and be left out, silver tagged along behind gold to rally a few cents. Silver remains in an uptrend but still lags behind gold a bit in terms of flexing its muscle, mostly because it’s an industrial metal. The top of the bull flag was broken as prices hit a 9-session high. We’re still anticipating a run to the 500 area soon. Always maintain your perspective by keeping an eye on daily, weekly and monthly charts as opposed to intra-day charts. Each contract/option = 5,000 ounces, a 1-cent move in a futures contract = $50. Contact me anytime to discuss strategies to fit your needs.
To open an account and receive trading recommendations on silver futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com. Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit. Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.
-- Posted Thursday, 23 January 2003 | Digg This Article
