-- Posted Friday, 14 February 2003 | Digg This Article

April Gold:  Close = $352.2, -$5.5

Gold bulls we're probably wishing that Blix had something more concrete to report to the U.N. Security Council.  His assessment of the weapons inspections was quite neutral, saying that no WMD had been found yet, but not guaranteeing that they don't exist.  He was very deliberate in the use of language of diplomacy as he hedged his comments and couched terms so as not to incite a frenzied atmosphere.  This tone of placation is partially responsible for sending gold bulls scurrying today, as gold prefers to feed on more threatening and ominous speech.  There was also a report that the recent heightened terror alerts issued last week may have been based on false information.  The detained terrorist who was the source of the supposed tip-off failed an FBI lie detector test.  The good news for the country that perhaps the terror alert was unfounded was ironically a dose of somewhat bad news for gold bulls.

With the dollar sinking and with the S&P breaking into fresh lows this week, one would think there was plenty of incentive for gold to rally.  Keep in mind that Inter-market relationships aren’t perfectly correlated, and it was apparently more important for gold bulls to let some wind out of the sails.  Overall though, gold bugs might once again be slipping on their buying shoes in the $350 area.

Also take note that oil prices continue to surge.  Venezuela is just about off the radar screen now in terms of when they’ll be a global player in crude again.  Intelligence reports claim that massive amounts of conventional explosives are being moved near Iraqi oil fields.  The inference is that of another scorched-earth policy should Saddam be forced into exile, killed or disarmed. 

In this shortened pre-holiday session in NY, the gold market broke below 350, yet did manage to close at 352.5.  The recent sell off may be just the medicine the bulls need to repair technical indicators and regain their strength and composure next week.  After all, lower prices will ultimately lead to higher prices according to supply/demand laws.  The cloud of uncertainty regarding Iraq and the war on terror may be entrenched in the headlines for some time, all the while keeping gold nervously supported.  Look for the $400 area as a target.  Meanwhile, thank goodness we have those gold puts as a hedge to our futures contract.  Be sure to watch TradeScope daily, and remember, futures and options offer flexibility as one can just as easily be short or long any market.  Each contract/option = 100 ounces, a $1 move in a futures contract = $100.  Contact me anytime to discuss strategies to fit your needs.

To open an account and receive trading recommendations on gold futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com.  Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit.  Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.

March Silver:  Close = $453.5, +.20-cents

In almost lock-step fashion, silver has trailed gold.  With few fresh internal fundamentals surfacing to press the silver market one way or another, silver is finding direction from gold.  The dip in gold that we expected this week was deeper than we thought.  These lower prices might serve to attract buyers into the yellow metal and infers that the white metal may have found support as well.  Remember the bearish seasonal, wherein from approximately 2/5 to 2/25 silver has fallen an average of about 18 cents?  Well, it appears to have worked like a charm this year.  Each contract/option = 5,000 ounces, a 1-cent move in a futures contract = $50.  Contact me anytime to discuss strategies to fit your needs.

To open an account and receive trading recommendations on silver futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com.  Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit.  Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.

-- Posted Friday, 14 February 2003 | Digg This Article

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