|
-- Posted Wednesday, 19 March 2003 | Digg This Article
April Gold: Close = $336.2, -$1.5
Ahead of the deadline imposed on Saddam and his sons, it’s no wonder that most gold traders seemingly remained on the sidelines. Who would want to establish a heavy position one way or another with such tension and uncertainty in the air? Until there is some clear direction from the war, the gold market would rather sit on the sidelines and wait for a catalyst to bring something new to the party.
Saddam and his sons flatly rejected Bush’s ultimatum to leave Iraq within 48-hours, but I suppose a miracle is still possible and they could comply with only minutes left. But, the markets don’t seem to be factoring in a miraculous exile, but rather a decisive military victory. The US dollar and stocks have rallied and energies were also affected, dropping precipitously. Certainly Saddam and his sons are not giving up, but will his troops? And, will he use chemical or biological weapons, will they commit atrocities against their own people while wearing American uniforms, will they ignite the oil fields, etc. Those are all within the realm of possibility, so expect these types of “unexpected” events to keep the markets on edge. All hell could break lose from any angle. The economy is a long way from being out of the woods, and recall that this downturn began before Iraq came to a boil, before 9/11, and before Bush took office.
So, you’re probably wondering what some of the answers were to the question, “what is your solution to disarming Iraq as per the Gulf War cease fire agreement mandated by the U.N. Security Council about twelve years ago?” Well, they ran the full spectrum…to Bush is the best President ever, to Bush is a warmonger, to Saddam has no WMD, to get the Mossad to take out Saddam, to the U.S. is the evil one, to Bush is a mass murderer, to it’s all a conspiracy by globalists, to tell the inspectors to stay in Iraq forever, and finally, the question you asked is incorrect! Phew, glad to see there’s such a concrete consensus on this issue! With gold prices off about $50 from the recent high, are bulls now too scared or will these lower prices goad them back into the game? Market gyrations are driven by fear and greed, so will bulls be fearful of losing and scramble for the exits, or will they be so greedy that they just have to buy at any price so as not to miss a potential rally driven by some monumental and unexpected disastrous event? Once again the low near 334 held, but barely. Prices are below moving averages and appear choppy. Aggressive traders could enter longs in this area, but as always exit soon if you jumped the gun. We can forecast and assign all sorts of reasoning or rationale to market movement but what really matters is implementing a position with a favorable risk/reward ratio. Be sure to watch TradeScope daily. Remember, with futures and options one can be short or long, feel free to contact me to discuss trading strategies. Each contract/option = 100 ounces, a $1 move in a futures contract = $100.
To open an account and receive trading recommendations on gold futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com. Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit. Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.
May Silver: Close = 442, -4.3-cents
The worry of war and the sluggishness in gold finally wore down silver, and it closed below recent support near 443. The bearish head and shoulders formation came to fruition. With prices now chugging along the low road, As with gold, perhaps aggressive bulls might want to buy, maybe near 445, but as always be sure to exit quickly if wrong. Don’t fall in love with a loser! Isn’t that what our parents always told us! On a close above 475 look for new highs. Surely silver has loads of room to rally but only on the shoulders of a willing gold market. Finally, there is a bullish seasonal starting, where in 12 of the last 15 years May Silver has rallied from approximately March 18 to May 4 an average of about 11-cents. Of course, history isn’t guaranteed to repeat itself. Each contract/option = 5,000 ounces, a 1-cent move in a futures contract = $50. Contact me anytime to discuss strategies to fit your needs.
To open an account and receive trading recommendations on silver futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com. Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit. Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.
-- Posted Wednesday, 19 March 2003 | Digg This Article
Previous Articles by Altavest Worldwide Trading, Inc.
|
