We’ve also mentioned quite often how difficult it is to “forecast” the direction of gold due to so many interwoven variables to interpret.  In fact, many times we’ve said how important it is to do your best to follow a trend, initiate a position with a favorable risk/reward ratio, and ask questions about “why” later.  Here is another interesting tidbit relating to this, it seems we’re not the only ones operating under that premise:

“But it's true and we learned the hard way in the 1980s that you can't forecast gold. You have to take the gold market one step at a time. It's uncanny how cyclical it is. We determine where gold is going by following steps that are solidly in place. This is different from forecasting. Its patterns repeat. So you take one step, and if everything is in place, you go ahead to the next step. Major support is at $310 now. We need to see the dollar break and the stock market fall. That's important for gold to sustain its rise.”

Since the original date of the above referenced gold article, the yellow metal corrected from the high near $395 as the authors thought it might, and has since revisited the $330 area, which they referenced as possibly a target for a correction in an otherwise bullish phase.  With war continuing the dollar and stocks remain weak, and one can expect higher gold prices under those conditions.  Prices are not quite above the 5, 10 and 20 period moving averages but it appears they are itching to move higher.  Look for $346 as the next target, and if you don’t want to trade futures a lower risk method is to use futures options.  Be sure to watch TradeScope daily.  Remember, with futures and options one can be short or long, feel free to contact me to discuss trading strategies.  Each contract/option = 100 ounces, a $1 move in a futures contract = $100.

To open an account and receive trading recommendations on gold futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com.  Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit.  Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.
 
May Silver:  Close = 446.5, +3.2-cents

Technical indicators were oversold, now they have turned and are headed up.  If long, exit on a close below 438.  The next resistance area is now 451 or so.  Here’s a quote from the Forbes article referenced above:

“Silver has yet to take off. It's been lackluster, though the major trend is up. Silver can sleep for years but when it wakes up, it goes.”

Certainly there is room to rally but only on the shoulders of a willing gold market.  Finally, take note of the bullish seasonal, where in 12 of the last 15 years May Silver has rallied from approximately March 18 to April 4 an average of about 11-cents.  So far this seasonal has played out, but there is still some time left.  Each contract/option = 5,000 ounces, a 1-cent move in a futures contract = $50.  Contact me anytime to discuss strategies to fit your needs.

To open an account and receive trading recommendations on silver futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com.  Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit.  Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.