The count continues.For the twelfth time in fourteen sessions, the August gold contract failed to close above the low-$940 range.From a purely technical perspective a move down to $894 cannot be ruled out. Though the US dollar index appears to be ready to roll over on the charts and take out the June 2 lows, sharp weakness in the stock markets today and rising unemployment underscore the deflationary pressure keeping gold from advancing.
Speculation about inflation may die down as it appears that many commodity markets simply do not have the strength to push prices higher at this moment.Crude oil is on the verge on putting a top on the charts if prices close below $66, and a pullback could send prices back towards $60-$58.Gasoline prices have already dropped 25 cents a gallon since early June and could see another drop in the mid $1.60 range.
It will be interesting to see how the US dollar moves compared to the stock markets as we head into the 2nd quarter earning reports season. If earnings are weaker than expected, a slide in stocks could help support the dollar, as seen previously.Unless the market receives some bullish surprises, look for a bearish bias to keep a lid on the market.
Review charts on these markets here www.britefutures.com. Remember that futures and options can be used for bullish or bearish positions; feel free to contact me to discuss trading strategies. Each contract/option = 100 ounces, a $1 move in a futures contract = $100.
To open an account and receive trading recommendations on gold futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use our online paper trading service BriteTrak,contact me attom@altavest.com. Visit www.altavest.com to request a FreeTrading Kit. Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.
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