LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
India's Gold Demand Beggars Belief



By: Adrian Ash, BullionVault


-- Posted Thursday, 17 February 2011 | | Source: GoldSeek.com

Despite prices rising 338%, global gold demand in 2010 was like the decade-long bull run hadn't got started...

 

WESTERN SAVERS hoping to defend their standard of living as global incomes converge take note.

 

Ten, even five years ago, precious-metals analysts thought rising incomes in Asia would see gold substituted for financial services or consumer goods. But China's private demand has more than doubled as a proportion of gross household savings. Based on the World Gold Council's latest data – issued today in the market-development and research group's new Gold Demand Trends report – India's private consumption jumped in 2010 to a new all-time record of more than 963 tonnes.

 

That's equal to 2.65% of GDP on the IMF estimate. On BullionVault's analysis, it equated to more than 11.5% of India's gross household savings.

Yes, the data are subject to revision, of course. They can only ever be an estimate, too.

 

But for Western savers hoping to defend their standard of living, it's plain commonsense to buy a little of what Asian households are using to store ever more of their fast-growing wealth.

 

Looking at today's Gold Demand Trends report, you can forget about central banks (net gold buyers in 2010 though they were, as a group, for the first time in two decades). Don't dwell on "safe-haven" Western demand either (other than to note how new ETF demand and "unallocated" trading in the wholesale, off-exchange market both slipped 45% from 2009's record highs, while coin and bar demand surged worldwide). Indian and Chinese private households are the knock-out story from 2010's data. The Indian figures in particular beggar belief.

 

The world's two most populous nations, its fastest-growing major economies, and numbers one and two for physical gold buying, both India and China set new records for private gold demand by value and volume in full-year 2010. On our reading of the new World Gold Council data, per capita consumption also set fresh records in the top two demand countries.

 

Rising inflation and sub-zero real rates of interest are setting the pace, just as they did during gold's developed-world bull market of the 1970s. Productivity and real wages are rising, however, in sharp contrast to the economic path the rich West took four decades ago. So Asia's deep love of gold – and ever-deepening pockets – suggest a different path, perhaps, from the post-bubble slump which gold prices suffered amid the record-high interest rates paid to cash savers to defeat Western inflation at the start of the '80s.

 

Developed-world gold investment rose amid the financial crisis starting 2007, even as world jewelry demand sank. Emerging Asia tempered and even reversed its buying as global GDP turned down, with private consumers in India – a net importer every year since the Great Depression (the world's No.1 consumer has got virtually no domestic mine output) – actually becoming net exporters of gold in the first quarter of 2009.

 

The economic rebound, so much more pronounced in emerging Asia than the rich West, has seen those trends switch over. Because even with the Eurozone deficit crises driving a jump in physical demand for gold bars and coin (particularly in Germany), net demand for new units of gold ETF shares actually slipped 45% from 2009's record. So too did "unallocated" trading in London's wholesale market.

 

You've got to go a long way to over-state the strength of physical gold demand in 2010. The Dollar price rose 26%, but total global demand still grew 9% by volume, hitting its highest tonnage since the long bear market of the 1980s and '90s hit rock-bottom in 2000.

 

Gold then averaged $279 per ounce, rather than 2010's average of $1224. Yet in tonnage terms, global physical demand – led by emerging Asia's big giants – was like the bull run hadn't even got started.

 

Adrian Ash

 

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen's Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the World Gold Council market-development and research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

 

(c) BullionVault 2011

 

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


-- Posted Thursday, 17 February 2011 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com





 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.