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The Butch Cassidy of Banking



By: Bill Bonner & James Boric, The Daily Reckoning


-- Posted Friday, 27 January 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

Paris, France

Friday, January 27, 2006

---------------------

*** Here come the incentives...buy a house, win a swimming pool...

*** The GM approach to selling...a critical time for small-cap investors...

*** Sugar's big boost...moving the U.S. Capitol to Chinatown...and more!

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The housing market begins to slow...and the incentives start pouring in.

As there are fewer and fewer buyers appearing, homebuilders are getting increasingly nervous...and have been finding creative ways to move product.

According to a new report from CNN Money, "Some recent freebies include trips to Las Vegas, home-entertainment and security packages, furniture store gift certificates, golf club passes for a year - even swimming pools, according to Greg Paquin of the Gregory Group, a market-research company."

Looks like the homebuilders are taking the GM approach to selling now - next thing we know, they'll be selling homes at "employee prices."

However, there is reason for those involved in the housing market to be concerned - the existing home sales data came out yesterday, and our good friend, Chuck Butler tells us "the sight wasn't pretty."

"If you add the 5.7% drop in December existing home sales to the 8.9% drop of December new home sales, and the picture is disconcerting," Chuck reported.

"Now, this data is not your typical big market mover, but given the fact that recently everyone's sensitive toward housing, these two pieces of data could go a long way toward pushing the Fed to call off the rate-hike dogs. I doubt it, but it could."

The housing market is slumping...the dollar is sliding against the euro...China's poised to collect $1 trillion in foreign reserves...all of these factors add up to volatile market - and where do you put your money in the face of such unpredictability? Chuck Butler recommends EverBank's World Currency CD's.

You can diversify globally, earn interest, and seek capital gains with FDIC-insured Certificates of Deposit denominated in any of the world's major foreign currencies, plus certain emerging markets like the Icelandic Krona - EverBank's latest currency offering. Click here for all the information:

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More news, from our team at The Rude Awakening...

--------------

James Boric, reporting from Baltimore:

"This is a critical time for small-cap investors. Now is the time to make sure we invest in healthy companies that can thrive, even if the Federal Reserve chokes off the lifeline to easy credit."

For the rest of this story, and for more market insights, see today's issue of The Rude Awakening:

Grab a Lifeline

http://www.the-rude-awakening.com/RAissues/2006/Jan/RA012706.html

--------------

Bill Bonner, back in Paris...

*** Sugar is getting a big boost from new reports out of South America.

Our commodities expert, Kevin Kerr, explains why that is...

"Sugar cane is an integral part of the Brazilian people's kitchen. It is the source of many useful products. In industry, it is a big preservative for warmer climates. And as my Resource Trader Alert readers know, it is also a source of electric energy fuel. It can also be a raw material for paper, plastics and chemicals.

"Sugar cane is versatile, to say the least...and enormously efficient.

Every ton of sugar has an energy potential equivalent to 1.2 barrels of petroleum. Brazil is the largest world producer, followed by India and Australia. On average, 55% of Brazilian sugar cane is turned into alcohol and 45% into sugar. Sugar cane is grown in Brazil's central-south and north-northeast regions, in two harvest periods. When planted for the first time, sugar cane takes between one and 11/2 years to be ready to harvest and process. The same plantation can be harvested up to five times, although significant investments must be made in each cycle to maintain productivity.

[Ed. Note: If you want to learn more about sugar, Kevin will be writing his RTA readers next week from South America to tell them firsthand. If you don't already subscribe to Resource Trader Alert, you're missing out...in the past year he's helped his subscribers bring in 285% gains in under 4 months on silver call options... 99% gains in 5 weeks on unleaded gas call options...and that doesn't even begin to scratch the surface. Get all the details here:

An Incredible Record of Success

http://www1.youreletters.com/t/332382/4459110/783795/0/

*** Ooh la la...we received quite the response from our dear readers about the Empire of Debt documentary. We'll share some of these replies with you, below. In the meantime, keep the ideas coming! Write Kate at kincontrera@dailyreckoning.com.

One reader sends some scenes he would to see incorporated in the movie:

"The homeless are burning dollars to keep warm since it's cheaper than oil.

"It's America's darkest days, when the gangs of L.A. team up with the gangs of New York trying to infiltrate the 'hood. The Governator mobilizes this army to defeat America's enemies and protect the hood. This outsourcing cost less than maintaining a standing army for protection. The Governator becomes president.

"The Capitol is moved to Chinatown."

And another readers has only this advice to offer us:

"However you do it...make sure you add Chinese subtitles."

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---------------------

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: This coming Tuesday, January 31 will see Greenspan pass the torch to Ben Bernanke as the head of the Federal Reserve. Let's take a quick look at the job Helicopter Ben will be taking over...

THE BUTCH CASSIDY OF BANKING

by Bill Bonner

"Alan Greenspan is the greatest economist of our time...probably the best central banker of all time."

Thus saith a French economist this morning interviewed on a radio talk show this morning. Your editor, also a guest on the show, was asked to respond. What follows is not what he said (because when he is called upon to speak in public he tends to hem and haw like a teenager asking for a date.) But this is what we intended to say:

"Yes, we agree. Alan Greenspan is probably the best central banker that ever lived...in the sense that Butch Cassidy was a great bank robber or Mrs. Purdy ran a great bordello. What is great about him is that he really understood central banking and appreciated it; the way a swindler admires a really good flimflam."

"What you have to remember," we began, gravely, "is that a central bank cannot work miracles. It cannot turn water into wine. It cannot make the blind see, nor heal the sick. When we speak of the central bank 'creating prosperity,' for example, we are either exaggerating or outright lying.

The lilies at central bank toil not, neither do they spin. They plant not.

They harvest not. They manufacture not. They invent not. 'Not' is what they do best...except when it comes to the nation's stock of money. There they put their shoulders to it.

"But what can they do? They are typically thought to control the quality of money. This, of course, is what they are supposed to do. And in Europe, more or less, that is what Jean-Claude Trichet does. But central banking in Europe is a slightly different métier from central banking in the United States. Bill Clinton jokingly wished he could create an Alan Greenspan Inc. and sell it on the NYSE. So high had Greenspan's stock flown, Clinton knew he'd get rich on options and warrants. Who would suggest such a thing for Trichet? Who even knows his name or would recognize him a lap-dance bar? The man labors in relative obscurity...if not absolute and perpetual darkness.

"How he must envy Alan Greenspan! The American Fed chief's picture is on the cover of every magazine...on the front page of every newspaper...and on the evening news, too. Le Monde commented earlier in the week that Greenspan was 'the prototype for the great leader of the 21st century.'

"Why such a big difference between the European's central bank chief and his American counterpart? We have an answer. It is because the euro-functionaire does the job he's supposed to do. Europe is a mixture of many different economies. It cannot easily agree on a common economic policy. The most it can ask of its central banker is that he not destroy the group's common money.

"Not so over in the imperial homeland. There, Mr. Greenspan casts a much bigger shadow across the world stage. He is not merely a bit player but the lead...the protagonist...the one who outsmarts the villain and wins the heart of the leading lady. And he is the one with the big guns in his hand. America's Fed-head is charged not merely with protecting the dollar, but also with assuring full employment, hiking-up property prices, doling out low-cost credit, re-electing all public officials; he must finance all wars, pills and hurricane clean-ups, and a low-fat chicken in every pot.

He has what is known as a 'dual mandate' - he must control the nation's economy and its money at the same time.

"But there is a place where the whole folderol washes up every time. A central bank can protect the value of the currency; Trichet is proving it.

But when it is asked to do more than that, the currency swiftly goes down the drain. Let us explain: The only thing a central bank can control directly is the nation's money. It can control either the quantity of it, or the quality. The quality is controlled by resisting the impulse to issue too much money, but resisting the impulse to create too much money is exactly what nobody wants. Politicians, consumers, merchants, investors and two-bit grifters all want more money, not less.

"Thus, even the most prudent and responsible central bankers inevitably allow a bias to creep into their management of the country's money. When crises threaten they quickly cut rates and pump up the money supply. When crises don't threaten any more, they drag their feet in tightening up. We saw this happen with Alan Greenspan's Fed recently. The recession of 2001 brought brisk treatment - rates were lowered like a leper's body into a grave. But when the time came to put rates back up, it was done gingerly...by tiny 'baby steps' over what seemed like an eon.

"And that is why activist central banking is nothing more than a fraud. If the object were only to have stable money, the bankers would simply fix the price of the currency to gold and no banker's bilious face would appear on the cover of Time. They'd all be as anonymous as Trichet. Alan Greenspan said so himself, before he arrived at the Fed. And yes, once settled in the cushiest chair at the Fed, Alan Greenspan made central banking work...but only for him.

"The job, as we have come to know it, is better than 'Survivor' when it comes to creating celebrities. The only thing it does better is creating money. And the only thing you can be sure of is that the money it creates will lose value and continue losing value until it has none left. At that point, even lepers won't want to touch it."

Bill Bonner

The Daily Reckoning

Editor's Note: Bill Bonner is the founder and editor of The Daily Reckoning. He is also the author, with Addison Wiggin, of The Wall Street Journal best seller Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century (John Wiley & Sons).

In Bonner and Wiggin's follow-up book, Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis, they wield their sardonic brand of humor to expose the nation for what it really is - an empire built on delusions. Daily Reckoning readers can buy their copy of Empire of Debt at a discount - just click on the link below:

"Now Perhaps Someone Will Listen!"

http://www1.youreletters.com/t/332382/4459110/783616/0/


-- Posted Friday, 27 January 2006 | Digg This Article



We'd like to offer you The Daily Reckoning, a FREE daily e-mail service written by entrepreneur and master financial newsletter publisher Bill Bonner. It offers a 'refreshingly witty, erudite... sensible' look at the day's stock news. One reader says The Daily Reckoning offers 'more sense in one e-mail than a month of CNBC.'

You can begin your free subscription by clicking here, entering your email into the box, and clicking 'Subscribe'.



 



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