-- Posted Tuesday, 10 April 2007 | Digg This Article
Baltimore, Maryland
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
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*** Gold hits nine-months high…and the dollar is at two-year lows against the euro…
*** The future for uranium looks bright…mortgage delinquencies hit record high…
*** Sometimes, you can get a clearer picture from shadow stats…and more!
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Our favorite precious metal made headlines today…gold has risen to a nine-month high of $688.64 in February.
We've often pointed out that investors hold gold as a hedge against a weakening dollar…and wouldn't you know it, the dollar is close to a two-year low against the euro.
"The U.S. dollar continues to weaken and we are now looking for gold to break through $700 an ounce this year," said John Meyer, an analyst at Numis Securities Ltd. in London.
The yellow metal could go even higher than $700…
Gold $2000
There's another metal on our radar that's been seeing surging prices lately: Uranium. Because of the possible global warming/fossil fuel connection, not to mention an increasing effort to find a viable alternative for oil and natural gas, the focus has naturally moved to this fuel used in nuclear power plants.
The team over at Casey Research sends us this note:
"Back in 1998, uranium was off most investor's radar screens, and trading in the single digits. Now look at it. Today, uranium prices have exploded up to $113/lb, and appear that they will go even higher as growing global demand for nuclear power taxes an already tight supply of yellowcake. Almost ten years ago there were less than 10 publicly traded companies exploring for uranium. Today - by many estimates - there are hundreds.
"Yet, while the future for uranium metal looks bright, the outlook for many of the stocks is less certain. To be blunt, most of today's uranium issues are overhyped and overpriced, exposing investors to the ever-growing risk of a pullback in share prices."
More from Doug Casey, et al, below. Let's see what else is going on…
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Dave Gonigan, reporting from The Daily Reckoning blog:
"Three months ago we had an intriguing post about the positioning of U.S. aircraft carriers, and what it might portend for a possible attack on Iran. Time for an update…"
See the full story here:
Watch the Eisenhower
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Short Fuse, back in Charm City…
*** Surprise, surprise… "Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Record High in First Quarter" reads a headline on CNBC.com.
CNBC's Steve Liesman (there's a name you can trust) reports, "Delinquency rates are up in 44 of the 50 states."
An analyst for Moody's Economy.com thinks that we are nowhere near the bottom of this housing free-fall - especially as the subprime and Alt-A loans reset at higher rates this year and next year.
"I think credit conditions are going to weaken considerably more," he said. "The good news, economy-wide, is that the job market is strong. As long as the job market hangs tough, I think we'll be okay outside of housing."
*** A 'strong' job market, eh? Well, it would certainly seem that way, according to the report the Bureau of Labor and Statistics released on Friday. Apparently, the United States created 180K jobs in March - and the jobless rate fell 0.17%.
Chuck Butler, who monitors these reports (which he refers to as the 'Jobs Jamboree') very closely, generally views the BLS data as a load of…well…BS, had this to say:
"While the 180K jobs created looks good on the outside, you know that I would look further into the numbers to see the devil in the details, right? Of course! First of all, the manufacturing sector took another hit and lost 16K jobs in March. So, where did the 196K jobs come from?
"A simple check of the BLS website tells us that of the 180K so-called jobs created, 128K were added via the birth/death model…what I call 'ghost jobs.'
"My trusty calculator tells me that 128K is 71% of the total. No wonder the media keeps asking the question, 'Why isn't the economy growing when the jobs market seems so tight?' BECAUSE IT ISN'T! I truly wish someone in the media would get their head out of the 'feel-good sand' and talk about this discrepancy!"
Of course, this will never be reported on in the press because these government agencies will never fess up to these discrepancies. It's for this reason that one gentleman that Chris Mayer and Addison recently met has made it his life's work to show the truth behind the government's falsified statistics.
(You can read the full account of Addison and Chris' meeting with Shadow Statistic's John Williams here:
Shadow Stats Give a Truer Picture
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The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: Uranium prices have been through the roof lately - surging 57% this year alone. And while the future of this commodity looks bright, the so-so stocks attached to this metal present a serious investment challenge. Luckily, our friends at Casey Research have uncovered the subsectors of the uranium space that have been largely unrecognized by the average investor. Read on…
STEALTH URANIUM INVESTMENTS
by Doug Casey
While the future for uranium metal looks bright, the outlook for many of the stocks is less certain. To be blunt, most of today's uranium issues are overhyped and overpriced, exposing investors to the ever-growing risk of a pullback in share prices.
This dichotomy - great commodity, so-so stocks - presents a significant investment challenge. Simply put, investors looking to profit from the outpouring of interest in yellowcake today must be far more creative than previously if they hope to uncover sub-sectors of the uranium space that haven't already been overinflated by the hurricane wind of promotion. A tall order to be sure, but one that we at the Casey Energy Speculator have been digging deep on for several months.
Below, we discuss three areas where investors can still find value largely unrecognized by the lumpeninvestoriat - the kind of potential that can lead to double- and even triple-digit gains once those beyond the leading edge of the bell curve catch on and start piling in.
#1: Basement-hosted Deposits
Every uranium investor is probably already aware of the flooding problems at the Cigar Lake mine in northern Saskatchewan. The mine - which was slated to produce 16% of world mined uranium supply - was plunged into doubt in October 2006 after water began gushing into the underground workings.
The problem is that the Cigar Lake ore is hosted in sandstone - a rock type through which water flows easily, to the detriment of engineers. But not all deposits in Saskatchewan's prolific Athabasca Basin are sandstone-hosted. Some uranium occurs in so-called "basement" rocks - more competent, drier layers beneath the sandstone. The problem is that many basement deposits are deep, which increases mining costs.
But it's a lesser-known fact that more accessible basement ores are found outside of the Athabasca Basin proper. In these outlying areas, the sandstone that once covered the basement has been eroded, making deposits easier to get at. In fact, one of the Basin's largest mines - Key Lake - was found in such a setting.
But while basement deposits are extremely prospective, they have been largely ignored by investors, who focus more on those companies working the thick of things in the middle of the Basin. The basement deposits have been ignored largely because most of the recent mines have been found underneath the sandstone and so exploration has tended to focus there. In addition, until recently, scientific understanding of basement deposits was also poor, but considerable advancements have been made over the past 20 years, since the last uranium cycle. Therein lies the opportunity. Many companies with prospective basement deposits have none of this upside factored into their share price, meaning we can take a low-cost ride on the potential of such plays.
#2: Low Grade Makes a Comeback
For years, low uranium prices meant that exploration companies searched mainly for high-grade ores - the type of deposits that all but guarantee a profit even during downturns in the market. But with prices rising, the industry is now realizing that lower-grade deposits may be important sources of yellowcake. After all, such ores are very profitable with uranium at multi-year price highs.
In fact, one of the world's largest uranium mines - Rossing, Namibia - works a bulk tonnage target at grades less than 0.1% U3O8. It's no wonder that a number of companies are now quietly looking for the next Rossing. Where might such a mega-deposit be found? Perhaps very close to home. The province of Quebec has long been known to host so-called pegmatite uranium deposits - similar to the geology of Rossing.
A few explorers have been catching our attention with potentially high-impact targets in this region. For example, Uracan Resources (URC. TSX-V) has assembled a prospective land package in southern Quebec, with trenching yielding results of 0.2% U3O8 over as much as 40 meters. The company will be drilling aggressively in 2007 to prove up a resource, which shows signs of being sizeable.
And the coming year may see the discovery of a completely new Rossing-type deposit in northern Quebec. Quebec experts Azimut Exploration (AZM.TSX-V) along with partner Northwestern Mineral Ventures (NWT.TSX-V) spotted the potential in the area a few years ago, confirming their hypothesis through sampling in 2006 at the North Rae project which yielded assays of up to 0.5% U3O8 - ten times the average grade at the Rossing deposit. And like Rossing, the North Rae mineralized system appears to extend over several tens of kilometers, giving it potential for huge ore reserves.
The initial drill program on the target will be completed during the coming season, possibly representing a turning point and driving home to investors that Quebec has the potential to host a world-class deposit. (We'll be paying very close attention to the progress of the drill program in the pages of the Casey Energy Speculator).
#3: Go Where No Company Has Gone Before
The recent uranium boom has led the new crop of explorers to nearly every country on the planet. Wherever there are available yellowcake deposits, junior companies have lined up to stake land, swing scintillometers and Swiss-cheese the ground with drill holes.
The key word being available. While many nations are open to uranium exploration, there are several localities where authorities have been less inviting. Two of the most significant are India and Brazil. Both have known deposits of significant scale - in fact, Indian drills have cut high-grade uranium up to 10% U3O8.
And yet officials in these countries have not been granting exploration licenses. At least not yet. In recent conversations with Indian government officials, we've learned that the country may soon be opening up to exploration, with talks already underway with several companies already well positioned to lead the charge into India's high-grade basins.
Another emerging district we are keeping an eye on is the African island of Madagascar. Although the nation's geology is extremely prospective for uranium, the country was effectively closed to exploration for much of the past century due to an oppressive dictatorship. But with the changes in that country's government over the last decade, we are starting to see permits being granted. Already a number of companies have accumulated significant land packages and we expect the news to start flowing sooner rather than later.
Regards,
Doug Casey
for The Daily Reckoning
P.S. While there is no question that the easy profits in uranium have been made, the big money is yet to come… you just need to know where to look. And if you sign up for a trial subscription to the Casey Energy Speculator right now, Doug will send you a special report containing the research he's done on 5 Uranium Winners he thinks have the potential to deliver big gains.
The Casey Energy Speculator is one of the nation's most respected monthly publications dedicated entirely to providing unbiased information on unique opportunities in uranium, oil and gas with the very real potential to double or better in the next 12 to 24 months. For information on a six-month risk-free trial and to have your free special report "5 Uranium Winners" rushed to you immediately, click here:
5 Uranium Winners
-- Posted Tuesday, 10 April 2007 | Digg This Article
