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Analysis of the Cycles of the HUI Index Since 2001

By: Thomas Chaize, Dani 2989, Dani 2989


-- Posted Monday, 10 January 2005 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

This is just an observation of the regular cycles of the HUI index (AMEX Gold Bugs Index). By imagining that the HUI index keeps the same rhythm of decline and increase in the next months, here are the objectives.

I. Objectives of increase.


Value absolved from the increases.
- First triangle of the HUI index, the increase leaves 35 and ends in 80 points, what makes 45 points of increase.
- The second triangle of the HUI index, the increase leaves 80 and ends in 155 points, what makes 75 points of increase.
- The third triangle of the HUI index, the increase leaves 155 and ends in 260 points, what makes 105 points of increase.


By accepting that the vague following one have the same progress, it gives an objective of 395 points.

 

II. Objective time of the HUI index.

A) The time of the cycles of the HUI index.
- The first wave in the 1st triangle measures 8 months +/-.
The second wave in the 2nd triangle measures 12 months +/-.
- The progress between both waves is of + 50 %, if the same progress is kept for the next wave it gives the third wave of 18 months. That is the exit of the third triangle would be made in June, 2005.

B) The phases of increase of the HUI index.
The first phase of increase lasted 3 months and the second 5 months, if it continues with the same rhythm the third phase of increase should last 8 months.
This means that the
high point will be reached in February, 2006 430 points (it is just an order of height).

III. Good period to buy goldmines or silver.

A) The sector around 195 points.
The current zone of the HUI index presents a good moment to buy companies of gold and silver. The increase will begin only in June, 2005; we are at present in a low point where, if the scenario is exact, it is interesting to buy.
It is possible to see on this graph that this right-hand side was a good signal of purchase repeatedly.

B) Invalidation.
If the HUI index passes too much below this zone, it is a very negative sign.

Be careful!!! I built this analysis on the idea which the HUI index continues with the same cycles, nevertheless nothing says that it will make it, and that it will be also precise.
The current zone is an interesting zone to buy just over the oblique support which has already shown its efficiency in past. Then, if the HUI index exceeds the zone 260, it is a very important bullish signal.

Thomas Chaize

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-- Posted Monday, 10 January 2005 | Digg This Article



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