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Blanchard Economic Research Note



-- Posted Wednesday, 18 April 2007 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

Precious metals are trading pretty choppy this morning as the markets are vacillating on currency moves and searching for additional market data with which to take out some psychologically important levels ($700 for gold, $1300 for platinum and $14.50 for silver).

Platinum has been particularly volatile the last few days as news has hit the market of a new ETF being launched in Switzerland.  As we opined on Monday, this one ETF being offered on a small bourse and available to only Swiss investors will not move the metal price a great deal on it's own.  What will be interesting to see is the success of the ETF and then any follow up attempts to bring similar ETFs for platinum and palladium to other bourses.  For as much news and press as gold and silver get, they are considerably thinner markets than what is understood to be the case by the average investor.  Platinum and palladium are even thinner than gold and silver in terms of overall available supply and annual mine production.  Should one or two ETFs socking away bullion in vaults begin to have some success, the impact on the market will be much more profound in platinum and palladium than in the gold and silver ETFs.

Reports coming out of Indonesia this morning have stated that Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine has shut in production and shipments of concentrate.  Grasberg is the largest copper/gold mine in the world in terms of reserves and in the top three in terms of production.  Shutting down for a day isn't going to be too big an issue for the gold market (much more so for copper where supplies are far tighter currently), but should this strike extend a few more days, we could be looking at more bullish news for gold prices entering the market.

The US dollar index is heading towards a test of the 80.85 level on the index.  A number of chart technicians believe that this is THE level at which the dollar loses it's struggle to stay in the 81-90 range.  Should we see the dollar index test and break that level in the next few days, it won't matter what other news is in the market, gold will skyrocket in response.

US oil inventory reports are also due today at 10:30 AM EST. 

Finally, looks like we've been under some selling pressure in the London market with prices bouncing back after the NY open.  Per usual, keep an eye on the 11 AM EST close.

 

Blanchard and Company, Inc. is the largest and most respected retailer of American rare coins and precious metals in the United States, serving more than 450,000 people with expert consultation and assistance in the acquisition of American numismatic rarities and gold, silver and platinum bullion. The Blanchard Economic Research Unit is a key source of precious metals market analysis and continues to be an important resource for financial and consumer media throughout the United States. Blanchard and its predecessor companies have called the New Orleans area home for more than 30 years. For more information about the company, visit BlanchardGold.com or call the company toll free at 1-800-880-4653.


-- Posted Wednesday, 18 April 2007 | Digg This Article


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