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-- Posted Friday, 11 January 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
DEEPCASTER LLC www.deepcaster.com DEEPCASTER FORTRESS ASSETS LETTERDEEPCASTER HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATORWealth Preservation Wealth Enhancement Financial and Geopolitical Intelligence Signs of impending major moves in the Gold and Crude Oil markets are increasingly apparent. The reader may well ask: “Have we not seen major moves already?” Deepcaster’s answer: Indeed we have, but there are likely more dramatic major moves to come, and very soon. The Key Question is: Will Gold and Crude continue their ascending trends in the near term or will they reverse and plummet? Let us just briefly revisit some important Fundamental, Technical, and Interventional considerations, which are more fully treated in Deepcaster’s January, 2008 Letter and December, 2007 Alerts, posted at www.deepcaster.com. The U.S. economy is worsening, moving deeper into an inflationary recession. Real Consumer Price Inflation year-to-date as of November, 2007 is running at 11.7% annualized*, according to data from shadowstats.com*. Moreover, ongoing M3 (the broad measure of The Fed’s money creation which has now been hidden by The Fed) continues above 15% annually (about a 5-year doubling time), rivaling levels seen before the 1973-1975 inflationary recession, according to shadowstats. The credit freeze-up and subprime mortgage crises have not been resolved. Indeed, banks are hoarding their liquidity, are reluctant to lend to one another, and are justifiably skeptical of ostensible counterparty strength, in existing or prospective private transactions. Of course, Deepcaster and a very few others predicted such an outcome as a direct result of the dangers inherent in “dark liquidity” transactions (see Deepcaster’s April 8, 2007 Alert regarding “Dark Liquidity.”) One of many major problems with “dark liquidity” is that it is difficult or impossible to adequately know the prospective counterparty’s strengths or weaknesses. And when, for example, the transaction involves Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs), who knows whether a CMO “package” of loans contains very risky subprime loans which may be about to go into default. Third Quarter 2007 Real Gross Domestic Product is decreasing at “roughly 2%” annualized (shadowstats). Certainly all of the foregoing should augur well for the price of Gold. And so long as the money supply continues to be profligately expanded and the U.S. Dollar continues to be weak, that should serve to boost the price of Crude Oil, as well.
On the other hand, regarding Crude Oil, the deepening of our ongoing inflationary recession should work to diminish prices, particularly if the price of the U.S. Dollar is rebounding (in the short-term) as Deepcaster has earlier forecast. A strengthening U.S. Dollar would create pressure for lower U.S. Dollar Crude Oil prices. For Crude Oil, tensions in the Middle East create an omnipresent geopolitical threat that can impel Crude Oil higher at any moment due to some untoward event. On the other hand, technically, Crude Oil looks over bought. Several indicators, especially price momentum, appear to have turned down. Gold on the other hand appears to have clearly broken out and up from its upward trending trend channel and its price momentum appears to be launching it up to $900 or $925 or more. But the key question is whether the upside breakout in Gold is a sustainable breakout or is it merely a “lure” (generated or exploited by The Central Bankers Cartel**) used to suck in longs in preparation for a Major Takedown! Indeed, Gold’s upward price momentum has ominously diminished this week. Regarding Gold, in a free market, Gold is a safe haven against inflation or deflation. In sum, as of Friday, January 11, 2008, the Technical and Fundamental picture was mixed for Crude Oil and mainly bullish for Gold. Thus, in Deepcaster’s view, to reasonably forecast the near-term future for Gold and Crude it is essential to examine the Interventionals and Geopoliticals. Indeed, it is likely that the “Trump Card,” as Deepcaster calls it, of Cartel Market Intervention**, will determine the fate of the Gold and Crude Oil markets in the very near future. First-time readers should be aware that Deepcaster contends a The Cartel of Central Bankers** has been intervening in the Equities, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and other Major Markets for several years! We also contend that since Tangible Assets (and, especially, the Monetary Metals, Gold and Silver and Strategic Assets like Crude) are rival stores and measures of value to The Central Bankers’ Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities that The Cartel periodically “declare war” on them via vicious price takedowns. Deepcaster invites skeptics to review the evidence contained in its January, 2008 Letter “Market Intervention, Data Manipulation” at “Latest Letter” at www.deepcaster.com ___ **We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Intervention by a Fed-led Cartel of Central Bankers to read Deepcaster’s January, 2008 Letter containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Market Intervention, Data Manipulation - - Increasing Risks, The Cartel End Game, and Latest Forecast” at www.deepcaster.com>LatestLetter. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” ___ Considering The Interventional Climate in the second week of January, 2008, the Fed’s Repo Pool has continued to decline over the past few days thus allowing the Dow and other indices to fall. But MACD, Trend Channels, and Bollinger Bands indicate we should soon see equities indices modestly bounce in the very short-term, followed by further significant equities decline. But the U.S. Dollar has apparently bottomed and begun strengthening somewhat - - as Deepcaster correctly forecast - - and we expect the strengthening to continue. And Crude Oil has retreated modestly from an apparent top as measured by certain key technical and interventional indicators. And also consider that the recent Gold breakout above its trend channel to all-time nominal highs could well be a Cartel-permitted or manufactured “lure.” And remember that the $1 trillion plus derivatives position (reported by the Bank for International Settlements as described in our January, 2008 Letter) makes The Cartel the biggest player in the Gold Market any time they wish to be. And the approximately $7 trillion in derivatives also reported by the Bank for International Settlements (www.bis.org.- then statistics>derivatives>Tables 19 and following) as available for commodities price intervention make The Cartel the biggest player in the Crude Oil market, if they choose to be, as well. Will The Cartel initiate a Major Takedown of Gold, Silver and Crude Oil very soon? Or will Gold and Crude Oil rocket to new highs in the next few weeks? Will Geopolitical considerations factor in to these impending moves? Deepcaster’s conclusion is that the Fundamentals, Technicals, Interventionals and Geopoliticals make it likely that major moves in Gold and Crude Oil will occur very soon. Deepcaster has just issued a Forecast (posted in the “Alerts Cache” at www.deepcaster.com) for these imminent moves as well as a recommendation which should be very profitable if these moves eventuate. If the imminent moves in Gold and Crude Oil occur as anticipated, recent market moves in Gold and Crude Oil will seem to be “small potatoes” by comparison. Deepcaster DEEPCASTER LLC www.deepcaster.com Wealth Preservation Wealth Enhancement Financial and Geopolitical Intelligence Gravitas, Pietas, Virtus
-- Posted Friday, 11 January 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
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