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Gold Consolidates at Low Levels



-- Posted Friday, 2 May 2008 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

The Morning Gold Report by Peter A. Grant

May 02, a.m. (USAGOLD) -- Gold staged a modest downside extension in the wake of the better than expected payrolls data. While the short -term bias remains vulnerable, the intraday tone is generally consolidative.

Nonfarm payrolls for Apr fell 20k and while the labor market is still contracting, this figure was significantly better than the 60k to 78k the market was expecting. Stocks and the dollar rallied and bonds sold-off on the slightly less dismal employment outlook. Better than expected March factory orders were another bright spot for the US economy.

Despite the initially negative reaction, gold is now slightly higher on the day. The still negative trend in payrolls may be supporting the yellow metal, but more likely it is the latest news from the Fed.

The Fed announced this morning that they are significantly expanding their liquidity facilities. The biweekly TAF auctions will grow from $50 mln every other week to $75 mln, beginning with the 05-May auction.

They also increased the reciprocal currency agreements with the SNB and the ECB, which will substantially increase the supply of dollars in Europe. The revised arrangements will now provide as much as $50 bln in dollar swaps to the ECB and up to $12 bln to the SNB. The BoE apparently opted out of the latest arrangements, saying they have plenty of dollars.

The Fed also expanded the types of collateral that can be pledged at TSLF auctions to include AAA/Aaa asset-backed securities, which would likely include securities backed by credit cards and auto loans.

It was a bold move when the Fed initially agreed to accept commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities in an environment of declining real estate values and record defaults. That decision was reflective of the severity of the crisis. This expansion of acceptable collateral is a strong indication that the worst of the financial crisis may in fact not be over, as has been espoused recently.

Certainly most people in dire economic times are going to make their mortgage payment before they make a car or credit card payment. Is the Fed attempting to head-off an expansion of the liquidity crisis? Could things actually be about to get worse? The latest move by the Fed must have been inspired by some rather dire expectations.

Kudos to the Fed for timing the announcement of this massive injection of liquidity so that the market's focus was on the better than expected payrolls data. All this new liquidity must ultimately have a negative impact on the dollar, which in turn should be supportive to gold.

While we continue to see redemptions in GLD, there was a preliminary signal from SLV that the tide may be turning.

Gold Market Movers:

US factory orders for Mar surged 1.4%, well above market expectations, versus a revised -0.9% in Feb.

US nonfarm payrolls for Apr fell 20k, much better than the market was expecting. Unemployment rate drops back to 5.0%.

Fed expands liquidity facilities. Increases biweekly TAF by 50% to $75 bln starting 05-May.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI for Apr revised down to 50.7 from 50.8.

UK Halifax house prices tumbled 1.3% in Apr, more than twice market expectations.

German retail sales for Mar unexpectedly fell 0.1%.

GFMS: Gold prices to pass $1,000/oz this year even if demand drops

Gold's downturn to be limited - BlackRock

Gold Fields stops operations

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

Pete Grant is the Senior Metals Analyst and an Account Executive with USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. He has spent the majority of his career as a global markets analyst. He began trading IMM currency futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the mid-1980's. In 1988 Mr. Grant joined MMS International as a foreign exchange market analyst. MMS was acquired by Standard & Poor's a short time later. Pete spent twelve years with S&P - MMS, where he became the Senior Managing FX Strategist. As a manager of the award-winning Currency Market Insight product, he was responsible for the daily real-time forecasting of the world's major and emerging currency pairs, along with the precious metals, to a global institutional audience. Pete was consistently recognized for providing invaluable services to his clients in the areas of custom trading strategies and risk assessment. The financial press frequently reported his personal market insights, risk evaluations and forecasts. Prior to joining USAGOLD, Mr. Grant served as VP of Operations and Chief Metals Trader for a Denver based investment management firm.


-- Posted Friday, 2 May 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com


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