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Opportunities and Threats from the “Paper Money” Regime



-- Posted Friday, 1 August 2008 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

The banks have begun falling…first Bear Stearns, then IndyMac, and Heritage…The Climacteric we forecast has begun.

 

The Threat of Systemic Collapse about which Deepcaster (and, increasingly, others) has written is also increasing.

 

But in this Threat there are several Opportunities.  The August Opportunity is the first significant one, which we note below.

 

To fully appreciate The Threat and identify The Opportunities, it is essential first to briefly review how we came to be in this precarious position.

 

 

The Root Cause of The Systemic Threat

 

The root cause of The Threat lies in the structure, functioning and policies of the private-for-profit “U.S.” Federal Reserve.

 

Various international private banks, several of which are headquartered in Europe, own the “United States” Federal Reserve Bank.

 

These International Bankers, acting through theirU.S.” Fed, make money by creating money out of “thin air” as eloquently described by the Dean of the Newsletter Writers, Richard Russell:

 

“I still can’t get over the whole Federal Reserve racket.”

 

Consider the following - - let’s take a situation where the U.S. government needs money.  The U.S. doesn’t just issue United States Notes, which, of course it could.  These notes would be dollars backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.  No, the U.S. doesn’t issue dollars straight out of the U.S. Treasury.

 

This is what the U.S. does - - it issues Treasury Bonds.  The U.S. then sells these bonds to the Fed.  The Fed buys the bonds.  Wait, how does the Fed pay for the bonds?  The Fed simply creates money “out of thin air” (book-keeping entry) with which it buys the bonds.  The money that the Fed creates from nowhere then goes to the U.S.  The Fed holds the U.S. bonds, and the unbelievable irony is that the U.S. then pays interest on the very bonds that the U.S. itself issued.  (With great profit to the private owners of The Fed - - Ed. Note)  The mind boggles.

 

The damnable result is that the Fed effectively controls the U.S. money supply.  The Fed is …not even a branch of the U.S. government.  The Fed is not mentioned in the Constitution of the United States.  No Constitutional amendment was ever created or voted on to accept the Fed.  The Constitutionality of the Federal Reserve has never come before the Supreme Court.  The Fed is a private bank that keeps the U.S. forever in debt - - or I should say in increasing debt along with ever rising interest payments.

 

How did the Fed get away with this outrage?  A tiny secretive group of bankers sneaked through a bill in 1913 at a time when many in Congress were absent.  Those who were there and voted for the bill didn’t realize (as so often happens) what they were voting for (shades of the shameful 2002 vote to hand over to President Bush the power to decide on war with Iraq).”

 

Richard Russell, “Richards Remarks,” dowtheoryletters.com, March 27 2007

 

 

After President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law in 1913, he reportedly said, “I am a most unhappy man, I have unwittingly ruined my country…a great industrial nation is now controlled by its system of credit…the growth of the nation, therefore, and all of our activities are in the hands of a few men…”

 

Insightful economic forecaster Ian Gordon notes several negative consequences of the nearly 100-year reign of The Fed, consequences with which we cope today.

 

“Since its inception in 1913, the Federal Reserve Board has been responsible for almost 95% devaluation of the U.S. Dollar.  All this has been achieved through its ability to continually inflate the money supply.

 

And, between 1985 and 2005, the Federal Reserve Board has increased the money supply by five times.  This extraordinary money creation is merely the catalyst for debt creation.  In a fiat money system, money is debt…there is absolutely no way this money can ever be repaid except by continued inflation.  But, now that the credit bubble is blown up, inflation is no longer an option; bankruptcy looms.”

 

 “The Federal Reserve…What Has It Done For You Lately? ”

Ian Gordon, December 29, 2007 (www.axisoflogic.com)

 

 

Gordon goes on to conclude that today we are in the “late Autumn” of an inflationary blow-off in the current 50 to 70 year Kondratieff cycle.  (The Economist Kondratieff theorized that Central Bankers were instrumental in creating 50 to 70 year long, four phase cycles, with the “Winter Phase” characterized by a deep recession or depression).  Indeed, according Kondratieff theory this year 2008, we are on the threshold of a Kondratieff “winter” - - a deep recession or depression.  Deepcaster agrees that such a Kondratieff Winter is likely in the next very few years, but for other reasons than just the Kondratieff cycle (see June, 2007 and January, 2008 Deepcaster Letters at www.deepcaster.com).

 

When the United States has, in recent years, been threatened with recession (e.g. 1987 and 2001), the Greenspan-led Fed responded to each threat by ever more massive fiat money (debt) creation.  The problem is that each time the fiat money supply is inflated by an ever-greater amount, more money must be printed in order to stave off recession or depression.  One recent calculation has indicated that approximately $6 must now be created (i.e. printed) in order to drive each additional $1 of GDP.

 

Such profligate printing merely delays financial disaster, but does not avoid it.  Such a disaster could, and should, be avoided by linking currency to the Monetary Metals – Gold & Silver – but The Cartel strenuously resists that.    The Cartel works to protect their lucrative “paper” money regime of fiat currencies and Treasury Securities at all costs.  Failure to do so would dilute their power and profits.  (In order to protect this Paper Money Regime they must periodically attempt to take down the price of Gold and Silver - - see below.)

 

 

Systemic Threat Increases

 

Monetary inflation reflected in (the now hidden by The Fed) M3 is now increasing at nearly 16% annualized per year (www.shadowstats.com) - - a less than 5 year doubling time.  Of course, this reckless Fed-generated Monetary Inflation is gradually translating into Price Inflation, though that price inflationary effect has been temporarily delayed by importing cheap goods and ostensibly cheap labor into the United States via the de facto Open Borders policy and has been disguised by Data Manipulation (see Data Manipulation section of July, 2008 Deepcaster Letter Market Intervention, Data Manipulation Still Accelerating - - Increasing Risks, The Cartel “End Game,” and Latest Forecast for Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude, U.S. Dollar and Treasuries” in the “Latest Letter/Archives” at www.deepcaster.com).

 

Of course, among the negative consequences resulting from rampant monetary inflation, de facto open borders, outsourcing, and easy credit has been serious wage depression and job loss for American workers, as well as the destruction of much of the United States’ domestic manufacturing capacity.  These consequences have negative ripple effects throughout the world.

 

A major problem with The Fed’s profligate fiat money creation is that as the money supply continues to increase prices begin to increase at an increasing rate.  That rate is beginning to be reflected even in the jiggered U.S. government’s CPI figures.  Of course, Real Consumer Price Inflation is nearly 12% annualized, according to the credible calculations of www.shadowstats.com.

 

Deepcaster and Richard Russell are of the same mind regarding the consequences of the Fed-created monetary inflation and easy credit.  Regarding the continued inflation of the money supply:

 

1)     The U.S. Dollar will eventually (pushed by Fed policies) self-destruct (though we are just now at the beginning of a short-term U.S. Dollar “bounce” as Deepcaster has earlier forecast) and

2)     “…The system must eventually destroy itself.  It is not a matter of whether, it is simply a matter of when and how…” Richards Remarks, March 27, 2007

 

So if “the system must eventually destroy itself” and The Cartel likely knows this, what has been, and is likely in the future to be, their response?

 

 

Market Intervention, Data Manipulation & The Cartel “End Game”

 

First, in order to stave off the day or month or year of Reckoning (which, we reiterate, is coming mainly as a consequence of their dramatic monetary inflation and “easy credit” policies), the Fed-led Central Bankers Cartel* has created, and for the past several years has operated, an extraordinary “financial regime” built on increasing trillions of dollars (nearly $600 trillion as of December, 2007 - - see www.bis.org (path:  statistics>derivatives>Table 19 and ff.) of OTC Derivatives available for the manipulation of major markets ranging from Precious Metals to Crude Oil and Energy, to Equities and Strategic Commodities (see Deepcaster’s July, 2008 Letter).

 

To be sure The Cartel’s massive and increasing use of derivatives to intervene in a wide variety of markets is fraught with danger (e.g. through counterparty failure.)  Deepcaster, Warren Buffett and Jim Sinclair have pointed out the dangers of OTC derivatives.  Indeed, Buffett calls them “toxic” and Sinclair has aptly described the financial system as “sitting on a $20 trillion trembling mountain of derivatives…think Weimar Republic.”  Unfortunately, Deepcaster, Jim Sinclair, and Warren Buffett are correct.

 

That is, this “United States” Fed leads a Cartel* of Central Banks who (via certain Primary Dealers and other agents) collectively intervene in a wide variety of markets, as Deepcaster (see July, 2008 Letter at www.deepcaster.com) and others have demonstrated.  All this is obviously quite financially incestuous.

 

*We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Intervention by a Fed-led Cartel of Central Bankers and Allies to read Deepcaster’s July, 2008 Letter containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Market Intervention, Data Manipulation Still Accelerating -- Increasing Risks, The Cartel End Game, and Latest Forecast” at www.deepcaster.com >LatestLetter. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.”

 

 

Second, The Cartel has developed a nefarious “End Game” plan which we describe below.

 

But even so, the pressures of the Real Economy (e.g. increases in food and energy costs) coupled with this relentless and irresponsible fiat money (debt) creation by The Fed have begun to seriously stress and threaten the entire financial system, as the Credit Freeze-Up last August, 2007 and subsequent financial sector disasters show.  As we pointed out in our June 2008 Letter, the Credit Freeze-Up, CDO Crisis, Toxic Derivatives and other Threats have not gone away.  These Threats are latent and growing, and beginning to erupt again.

 

 

Real-World Consequences

 

More negative consequences of this Fed-led Cartel’s Paper Money Regime surface every month.

 

Among the first publicly visible ones was the August, 2007 Credit Market Freeze-up, then the increasingly damaging Housing Crisis, and now the Bank Failures, which have, as Deepcaster and others predicted, just begun.

 

We reiterate these failures have, ironically, been catalyzed by the policies of the most powerful Bank of them all - - The U.S. Fed-led Banking Cartel.

 

Yet, some individual banks are “favorite sons” of The Cartel and others are…victims.  Consider a recent example eloquently described by Ellen Brown:

 

“…The Federal Reserve is wholly owned by a consortium of private banks; it is controlled by bankers; and it protects their interests. It issues Federal Reserve Notes (dollar bills) for the cost of printing them (or, more often, for the cost of entering numbers on a computer screen). This privately issued money is then lent to the government, and it is owed back to the private Federal Reserve with interest. The interest is eventually refunded to the government, but only after the Fed deducts its operating expenses and a 6 percent guaranteed return for its bank shareholders.

 

Congress and the President have some input in appointing the Federal Reserve Board, but the Board works behind closed doors with the regional bankers, without Congressional oversight or control. Bank CEOs actually sit on the boards of the Fed’s twelve branches. As just one recent example of the private control of public monies, in March of this year the New York Federal Reserve agreed in private weekend negotiations to advance $55 billion of the people’s money so that JPMorgan Chase could buy Bear Stearns at the bargain basement price of $2 a share, down from a high of $156 a share. It was a hostile takeover, not approved by the Bear Stearns shareholders or the American voters. JPMorgan Chase is the bank founded by John Pierpont Morgan, who sponsored the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. Jamie Dimon, the current CEO of JPMorgan Chase, sits on the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which dominates the twelve Federal Reserve Banks; and he has huge stock holdings in JPMorgan Chase. His participation in the decision to give his bank $55 billion in Federal Reserve loans is the sort of conflict of interest that federal statute makes a criminal offense; but there is no one to prosecute the statute, because the banking lobby is too powerful to be denied. The banking lobby is powerful because private bankers, not the government, create our money and control who gets it. (See Ellen Brown, “The Secret Bailout of JPMorgan,” May 13, 2008, www.webofdebt.com/articles; and “What’s the Difference Between Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns?” June 14, 2008, ibid.)

 

The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was a major coup for the international bankers. They had battled for more than a century to establish a private central bank in the United States with the exclusive right to “monetize” the government’s debt; that is, to print their own money and exchange it for government securities or I.O.U.s. The Federal Reserve Act authorized a private central bank to create money out of nothing, lend it to the government at interest, and control the national money supply, expanding or contracting it at will. Representative Charles Lindbergh Sr. called the Act “the worst legislative crime of the ages.” (emphasis added)

 

Ellen Brown, Putting The “Federal” Back in the Federal Reserve,

July 24, 2008, webofdebt.com

 

 

But, as the worsening Housing Crisis, Credit Freeze-up, Banking Failures, among increasing numbers of negatives show, The Cartel’s policies generate increasing Systemic Risk which results in their “Paper Regime” becoming ever harder to manage.

 

Indeed, perhaps the most salient item of evidence that The Fed-led Central Bankers Market Intervention Regime is becoming harder to manage is that The Cartel requires, and thus creates, ever-increasing trillions of dollars of derivatives to “manage” all the various markets in which The Cartel intervenes.  Indeed, those amounts of derivatives are increasing exponentially.  A favorite Fed Interventional Vehicle, the Repurchase Agreement Pool, is several times larger today than it was just a few years ago.

 

So what are the Central Bankers to do as their Market Intervention Regime becomes harder to manage?  What are they doing?

 

They surely must want to avoid allowing the financial system to collapse around them (in a manner in which its failure would be linked to them) lest they be subject to the wrath of the populace of the major nations.  They must thus develop a solution - - an “End Game” as it were - - to cope with what Deepcaster, Richard Russell, and others view as the inevitable collapse.

 

Deepcaster has described The Cartel’s apparent ‘End Game’ is in its June, 2007 Letter “Profiting From the Push to Denationalize Currencies and Deconstruct Nations “ and its August 13, 2006 Alert “Massive Financial-Geopolitical Scheme Not Reported by Big Media” posted in the “Archives” at www.deepcaster.com.  Fortunately, there is now even a Bill in the U.S. Congress (H.Con.Res.40) which opposes this nefarious scheme.

 

 

The Crisis Approaches – The “End Game” Implementation Begins

 

A most compelling conclusion from the foregoing is that The Cartel expects (and likely are even pushing) the U.S. Dollar to go into further and further decline, over the medium term, and to continue their other policies, until there is a “No-Salvation, No-Return Systemic Crisis.”  (Very short-term, Deepcaster has earlier forecast the U.S. Dollar to “bounce” in the 3rd quarter of 2008 - - but that does not affect the fact that the primary long-term trend for the U.S. Dollar is down.) 

 

That the U.S. economy (about 25% of the international economy) is headed in the direction of Serious Stagflation (a Kondratieff Winter) is pretty clear from the very credible shadowstats.com statistics.  According to shadowstats, Real Consumer Price Inflation is running at nearly 12% a year, U.S. Unemployment at 14% a year and, the Money Supply Growth (M3) is increasing at nearly 16% a year or a doubling time of nearly 5 years, as we commented above.

 

Moreover, Real U.S. GDP “growth” is a negative number - - about a negative 2% annualized according to shadowstats.  Indeed, shadowstats.com views the Official 2nd Quarter GDP numbers as “political garbage,” due in large to the government’s use of a vastly unrealistic Implicit Price Deflation number.

 

It would appear that The Cartel-charted-course toward a Stagflationary Recession/Depression, and thus toward the attempted implementation of their “End Game,” is on course.

 

The clue to the character of The Cartel “End Game” is the Strategic and Prosperity Partnership Agreement signed by Presidents Bush, Fox of Mexico and Martin of Canada in Waco, Texas in March, 2006.

 

This multi-faceted Agreement was signed without the approval of Congress, or the knowledge of most of the American people.

 

It is clear from the multifaceted “End Game” Plan reflected in this Agreement why the Bush Administration has been so resistant to defending U.S. borders.

 

It is also clear that One Key Component of the End Game Plan is the dissolution of the United States Dollar and other currencies into a new currency, the “Amero.”  Indeed, two bits of anecdotal evidence that this plan is being taken seriously are:

 

1)     That the “Swiss Portfolio” Investment Advisory Company has already touted the “Amero Alternative” on its website; and

2)     The London investment firm Jeffries International Ltd.’s Vice President, Steven Pervis, said that the coming “Amero” will have “a big impact on everybody’s life.”

 

One clear inference is that if The Cartel is pushing the Amero as the eventual, and their favored, alternative to the U.S. Dollar, The Cartel certainly intends to continue its interventional efforts at suppressing the prices of Gold and Silver in order to prevent their attaining increasing legitimacy as money, and thus as competitors to their Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities.

 

In the event of the success (from The Cartel’s perspective) of the implementation of the End Game Plan, doubtless The Fed intends to transmogrify itself into The (still private and very profitable) Central Bank responsible for issuing the Amero.  Additional details regarding The Cartel’s “End Game” are provided in Deepcaster’s August 3, 2008 Alert and June 2007 Letter available at www.deepcaster.com.

 

Of course, the key question for the long-term is whether The Cartel will be able to pull it off.  Certainly they have been instrumental in creating a financial climate which has crisis potential. 

 

If The Fed is not able to lead its Cartel to success in implementing its “End Game,” the No-Salvation, No-Return Systemic Crisis which its policies will likely create, the ensuing crisis would clearly and publicly be its responsibility.

 

In that event, is it not highly likely that The Fed would be unable to continue as a privately owned for-profit entity?

 

 

A Solution Versus Current Trends  

 

Rather, and as an alternative to The Cartel’s planned “End Game,” there could then arise genuine a United States National Bank issuing United States Notes (as did President J.F. Kennedy briefly before he was killed) solidly backed by the monetary metals, Gold and Silver.

 

But, in the short-term, the U.S. Fed-led Cartel continues to expand its power.  For example, it is important to reiterate that: the Powers-That-Be, ensconced at The Fed and U.S. Treasury, have recently sought and obtained even more power without accountabilityAny downstream liabilities are, of course, planned to be laid off on the U.S. Taxpayers.  We are grateful to Rep. Ron Paul for disclosing shocking details of the Housing Bailout Bill recently rammed through Congress, and grateful to GATA and others for reporting them:

“-  The two troubled federal mortgage agencies, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, will be given unlimited access to the U.S. Treasury without requiring any further approval from Congress.
-  The U.S. national debt ceiling will be raised by $800 billion, which suggests that the bailout is expected to cost a lot more than the country is being told.
All credit card transactions will have to be reported to the Internal Revenue Service, as if the country isn’t under enough government surveillance already.” (emphasis added)

Ron Paul discloses housing bailout bill’s money and power grab
          The Gata Dispatch, July 24, 2008

Clearly, the Federal Reserve should be abolished and replaced by a truly National Bank which could then issue currency linked to Gold and Silver.

Joining Deepcaster in its call for abolition of the “U.S.” Federal Reserve is legendary investor Jim Rogers, who also advocates letting Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae go bankrupt.  But no, the private-for-profit U.S. Fed recently gave its New York Fed Reserve Bank subsidiary the authority to lend to these Government-Sponsored Enterprises at 2.25% - - the same rate as Wall Street gets.

Indeed, Ellen Brown sums up the effect of this Bailout Scheme quite eloquently:

“…But the plan now being pursued is to bail out these private corporations by increasing their capital base with taxpayer money and their profit margins with greater access to Federal Reserve loans. The result will be to privatize profits to their management and shareholders while socializing risk to the taxpayers. We the people will foot the bill. If the people are going to bear the risk, we should reap the benefits. Either these two mega-corporations should take their licks in the market like any other private corporation, or they should be nationalized, delivering not just their debts but also their assets to the taxpayers. Not just Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac but the Federal Reserve itself should be made truly federal entities, as the voters have been led to believe and their names imply. Remove the myth that these Wall Street-controlled entities act by and for the people rather than being run for private gain…” (emphasis added)

Unfortunately the systemic changes, which Deepcaster, Jim Rogers and Ellen Brown recommend, are not likely to occur anytime soon.  Thus we are all constrained to work in the system, as it now exists, to protect capital and make profits as best we can.

The Cartel’s Constraints Generate Profit Opportunities

Though The Cartel’s Interventional Machinery is still quite powerful, it is unable to manipulate all markets at will all the time because it is constrained by several Realities.  These include:  politics, the necessity to run “under the radar” (i.e. to maintain plausible deniability) regarding its Market Interventions, and the very real constraints of a marketplace in which tangibles-in-limited-supply (e.g. energy and food) are of major importance.

These factors are leading to a series of Opportunities.

The first is the “August Opportunity” which arises because the Fed is “between a rock and a hard place” on interest rates.  If it raises rates to stop inflation it will risk killing the markets and the economy.  If it lowers rates, the Dollar is under greater pressure to sink and inflation will intensify.  Thus The Fed is in a position in which it will likely do little or nothing about interest rates for the next few meetings of its FOMC.  Thus it is impelled, for a time, to allow certain natural market forces to prevail.

We expect the Equities Markets to provide the “August Opportunity” beginning in the first or second week of August.  We have forecast a Major Move of perhaps as much as 2,000 points on the Dow.  In our latest Forecast posted at www.deepcaster.com we recommend timely buying Options and perhaps an Exchange Traded Fund or two to take advantage of such a move.  We encourage investors to raise cash now, so as to be in position to take advantage of this opportunity.

Another profit opportunity lies in Gold and Silver.  Consider that The Cartel’s  #1 Priority remains to not allow Gold and Silver to become increasingly legitimized as alternatives to its Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities.  At all costs they will continue to attempt to take Gold and Silver down and not allow them to be a “safe haven.”  The key question is whether the expected Major Move in the Equities Markets will be accompanied by a successful Takedown of Gold and Silver, or whether The Cartel’s efforts will, for once, fail.

The anticipated Moves in Equities and Gold and Silver should also be accompanied by major moves in U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds, which we have also forecast.  That means, of course, long-term rates will move substantially as well.

Thus The Cartel’s Constraints will likely generate The August Opportunity and subsequent opportunities.  In order to take advantage of these opportunities it is essential to monitor the Interventionals as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals, as does Deepcaster.  For it is the Interventionals which reflect the Fed-led Cartel’s being the biggest player in the market and the biggest player in the market typically, but not always, makes the market price.  But given their increasing constraints, will they be able to make Market Prices this time around?

 

Deepcaster

August 1, 2008

 

 

 

 

 

DEEPCASTER LLC

www.deepcaster.com

Wealth Preservation         Wealth Enhancement

Financial and Geopolitical Intelligence

 

Gravitas, Pietas, Virtus


-- Posted Friday, 1 August 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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