-- Posted Monday, 4 May 2009 | | Source: GoldSeek.com
By Roy Martens
The big picture hasn’t changed much this past month. The most surprising news, at least for the ones in the dark, was that China is hoarding Gold. Their reserves have risen a lot and they intend to expand their stockpile even further. Although this is very good news for Gold in the long run it didn’t really have a big impact on the Gold price last month, which is kind of surprising.
Such news is huge because the monetary reserves of China are enormous and although they say they will not shift their reserves into Gold at this time, I wonder if they will still hold that position if the dollar should tank.
Most likely this positive news was put aside by the announcement that the IMF intends to sell a lot of its Gold in order to raise cash and support the various countries that are in trouble, which should have a negative impact. We, however, have to look past this negative force for Gold because once the Gold reserves of the IMF (and other Central Banks) are gone there is nothing left to cap the price of Gold!
Due to the selling of the IMF ,Gold could suffer in the short term but it is my opinion that this fall (should it happen) will be a very good entry level for people that don’t already own the yellow metal.
As the Gold chart will show from a technical point of view, Gold is currently at an important stage and this upcoming month could be the set up for a rise to the highs or a fall to retest the $700 level (Impact of IMF selling Gold).
Whatever the outcome, Gold bulls are certain that Gold will reclaim its power further down the road. Will China be the only one to see the light? I don’t think so, there will be many other countries that will follow in China’s footsteps and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of them, for example the other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India) countries are already doing the same as China.
All charts are courtesy of Stockcharts.com
The picture for Gold hasn’t changed much this last month. The flag pattern is still intact.
However, this pattern can’t continue for much longer because it will get too big to remain a valid flag, rather, it will then change into a channel. For now the blue lines are the most important ones to watch. They have to support Gold together with the 34 w. MA at $859.
If this level fails we can brace ourselves for a big fall, because the $700 will then be the next target again. As long as the $850 holds we expect Gold to break out of the flag pattern and start a new run at the highs.
The Silver chart remains fairly positive. The flag pattern is still intact and completion doesn’t seem that far off.
The current correction wave could be a wave 2 but it is still too early to tell so this EW count isn’t valid yet. The chart is improving further with the 24 w. MA starting to curl up in support of an upcoming move. This move could be the wave 3 higher triggered by a breakout from the pattern.
The RSI and MACD are in perfect position to move higher and a new buy signal in the DMI (cross of buying power over selling power) will follow quickly if Silver moves higher from here on.
Oil is taking a breather after the first breakout attempt failed. It successfully re-tested the
17 w. MA for support and is moving higher again towards the resistance zone and the 34 w. MA.
The 17 w. MA is rising and should support Oil in the upcoming attempt to break the heavy resistance zone. If Oil succeeds it will trigger a huge buy signal because it will automatically mean a break above the 34 w. MA, a new LT buy signal. The first target after a breakout will be the $80 level ($78 is a 38.2% monthly fibo level shown in last month’s chart).
The technical conditions are improving slowly but are still in negative territory (RSI, MACD) while the selling power remains in charge, meaning that the current move higher is still ‘just’ a correction in the ruling downtrend.
The Bulls are doing a good job supporting the USD. They have manage dto keep it above the 34 w. MA and the uptrend is still very much intact.
The downward pressure is still there and keeps building so the bulls aren’t out of the woods yet. As long as the 34 w. MA holds firm the bulls remain in the driver seat, but once it is taken out we will see a big sell signal and a trigger for a huge fall towards the 72 level.
The technical conditions are still positive but this can change very quickly. The RSI is a whisker away from triggering a sell signal and the MACD is on its way towards the 0 line. This upcoming month will be very interesting to watch.
The chart for Copper is coming along as expected and the presented EW count fits nicely into the monthly chart that was shown last month.
The technical conditions have improved further and are in perfect position to get this wave 5 underway. The RSI is back above the 50 level and should start rising from here, the buying power in the DMI is trying to take over and the MACD is steadily rising towards the 0 line and the magenta resistance line.
If copper breaks above the resistance zone the indicators all turn positive at once and could trigger a very big move higher. The $300 level could then come within reach very fast.
Roy Martens
Chief Technical Analyst
Resource Fortunes LLC
Web http://www.resourcefortunes.com/
The above is an excerpt from the technical analysis portion of the monthly Resource Fortunes Premium Newsletter publication, available in its entirety for subscribers at http://www.resourcefortunes.com/. We currently offer a 30-day trial subscription for $2.99.
-- Posted Monday, 4 May 2009 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
