-- Posted Friday, 17 July 2009 | | Source: GoldSeek.com
DEEPCASTER FORTRESS ASSETS LETTER
DEEPCASTER HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR
Wealth Preservation Wealth Enhancement
Financial and Geopolitical Intelligence
“The Bank (Goldman Sachs – Ed.) has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways.”
Assistant U.S. Attorney
July 4, 2009
The significance of the Assistant U.S. Attorney’s statement at the Bail Hearing for the former Goldman employee, Sergey Aleynikov, who was charged with stealing Goldman Sachs trading software, goes far beyond the issue of the alleged theft.
What was/is Goldman doing with software which could be used, by its own apparent admission, to “manipulate” the markets “in unfair ways”. We do not know. But are there not only two logical inferences possible from Goldman’s claim (about the software’s capacity to manipulate the markets in “unfair ways”) transmitted via the Assistant U.S. Attorney?
1. Nothing was to stop Goldman from manipulating the market in unfair ways itself should it have chosen to do so (And if they did not intend to do so what were they doing in possession of such software?)
2. Goldman developed the software to be used by another entity – perhaps The Fed-led Cartel* of Key Central Bankers and favored Financial Institutions to facilitate their manipulating Precious Metals, Equities and Strategic Commodities Markets among others using Goldman, (and its software) as a Primary Dealer. (See below)
We will not address the allegations buzzing around the internet that Goldman was illegally using the software for “frontrunning” the markets for its own profit.
But the fact that Goldman received over $10 billion in U.S. Taxpayer–provided Bailout Money in late 2008 which allowed it to profit to the tune of $2.7 billion in the second quarter 2009 alone (profits apparently not shared with U.S. Taxpayers!) certainly raises the issue of fairness, if not outright scamming.
Indeed, we use this entire sordid example as a springboard for articulating key guidelines for surmounting deception, distortion and intervention in the markets and thus for protecting profits and wealth.
Generally speaking, there are two levels at which deceivers, distorters and intervenors operate -- the Macro-level (usually certain Cartels and certain Governments) and at the (relatively) Micro-level.
First, let’s consider some guidelines and precaution for surmounting Scams distortions and Intervention at the Micro-level.
1. Check Derivatives Exposure of companies in which you are considering investing. AIG’s demise was brought about in large part because of the highly leveraged derivatives risks to which they exposed themselves.
2. Investigate, to the extent you can, the existence of off-balance sheet transactions, commitments, and liability exposure. Not an easy task!
3. To the extent you are able, determine the strengths and weaknesses of counterparties to transactions/derivatives with whom the party on which you are focusing is involved.
4. If a primary rationale for considering investing in a security is that it is the leader (laggard) in a Sector you expect to rise (or fall) consider investing in a long (or short) Sector Exchange Traded Fund. In that way you minimize individual company risk.
5. If you are considering investing in a Sector which receives special attention from The Cartel* or Government Market Intervenors (e.g. Precious Metals and Strategic Commodities) then pay close attention to the Interventionals as well as the fundamentals and technicals. (See discussion of The Cartel* below.)
6. Be Just as Willing to “Go Short” as to “Go Long”. Given the Foregoing Economic and Financial Market Realities, there will be many months and probably several years before the markets-in-general are in a durable healthy uptrend, as we have demonstrated in several articles. Thus, one must be just as willing and able to “go short” as to “go long”. Fortunately, there are unprecedented opportunities to “go short” (as well as long) via, for example, literally scores of short Exchange-Traded Funds. Carefully chosen and timed, these can be excellent vehicles for garnering profit in “fear markets”. For example, Deepcaster entered September, 2008 having recommended a total of five short positions because he earlier forecast a Market Takedown. The Market then crashed, and all of those positions subsequently were liquidated for significant profits.
7. Buy and Hold Rarely Works Anymore. As the market performance in the past year has demonstrated, those who adhered to the Outdated Strategy of “Buy and Hold” likely got smashed. Many have lost up to 50% of the price “value” of their portfolio with little prospect of recovery (absent employing Strategies suggested here). See “Opportunities to Escape Paper ‘Wealth’” (11/07/2008) in the “Articles by Deepcaster” Cache at www.deepcaster.com. What many of these investors did not realize, and hopefully now realize, is that we are now in a radically different economic and market environment (especially important is that Investors are forced to operate in an Interventional Universe!) which will, with very few exceptions, make “Buy and Hold” a very unprofitable strategy for several years.
8. The Basic Reality: Hyper Stagflation. We are in an Apparent Deflationary Environment (e.g. energy prices have dropped dramatically and the Equities Markets and other “Assets” have lost Trillions in Nominal Value). This Apparent Deflationary Environment masks an underlying Hyperinflationary Reality - - the Trillions in Fiat Currencies which are being printed and lent in a futile (in the long term) Attempt to stimulate the Economy are substantially greater than the Trillions lost in Equities Markets Takedowns and other Asset Devaluations. Thus The Basic Long Term Trend is a Hyperinflationary Economic Decline - - the worst of both Worlds. We expect $20 hamburgers in three or four years. See “Statistical Manipulation versus The Real Numbers section below” for Real Reflection numbers.
9. Raise Cash - - Cash is King in this Credit Squeezed Environment. What Cash? So long as the deleveraging continues the U.S. Dollar should remain relatively strong. When the deleveraging is perceived to be beginning to end, the U.S. Dollar will begin its collapse. In such an environment the Swiss Franc is the currency of choice. Of course, the ultimate Money is the Precious Monetary Metals, Gold and Silver but, given The Cartel’s* periodic Interventions (see below) to drive lower their price we advocate acquiring them using the Strategy described in our Article “Defeating The Cartel…with Profit” (3/28/08) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.
10. Liquidate Debt - - Debt is the Enemy of Cash in this Cash is King Environment. Debt demands Repayment, with Cash that is ever harder to obtain.
11. Credit: Use it or Lose It: But only if you Must for Safety’s Sake. Lenders are Cutting Back or Eliminating Credit lines and raising rates. (Outrageous, of course, since it is the U.S. Taxpayer who has bailed many of these lenders out!) So if you do not have a sufficient cash cushion and can foreseeably make the payments, consider borrowing from that credit line. If you fail to do so, it may be reduced or eliminated.
12. Become more Self-Reliant. The Hard “Econo-Reality” is that in this increasingly “Hard Times” Era of increasing unemployment and decreasing economic strength - - a “Hard Times” Era which will likely persist for several years - - there will be more, much more, potential for civil disturbances and reduction in, or outright cut-off of, basic public services, and essential supplies as well. Given the increasing desperation of an increasingly large number of the population there will be more personal safety risks. Public infrastructure services upon which we have come to rely such as utilities and roads are likely to be compromised periodically, and increasingly severely. Prepare for blackouts, periodic interruptions of water and food supplies, and civil, and very uncivil, disturbances. Be prepared to combat increasing threats to Liberty and Privacy in the deceptive guise of ostensible Security. “Be prepared” is not just a wise motto for Boy Scouts.
The generally accepted Theory is that Markets trade freely and that Market Prices are determined by supply and demand. If this theory were always correct, Investors with a superior grasp of fundamentals and technicals could regularly profit.
Unfortunately, the aforementioned Theory does not work for certain Sectors, especially Gold and Silver and Strategic Commodities, because their prices are subject to Cartel* intervention. Thus one must consider the following.
1. Gold and Silver Prices and Cartel* Intervention
Investors justifiably increasingly concerned about adverse developments in the financial markets and economy, are seeking Safe Haven in Gold and Silver, as well as in traditional retirement vehicles (such as 401(k)s and similar accounts).
But investors have often been frustrated in finding such Safe Haven, largely due to the policies and Market Interventions of The Fed-led Cartel* of Key Central Bankers and their Favored Financial Institutions.
Indeed, regarding Gold and Silver, it is becoming ever more widely known that, The Cartel* regularly intervenes to drive down prices of Gold and Silver in the market. These Precious Metals are the primary targets of The Cartel’s interventions because they legitimately compete with The Cartel’s Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities as the Ultimate Measures and Stores of Value.
As well, it is becoming increasingly apparent that The Cartel regularly intervenes in the Equities and Strategic Commodities Markets. Reflecting the acknowledgment of massive ongoing overt and covert intervention, no less an authority than the Dean of the Newsletter writers Richard Russell recently finally acknowledged:
“This government will stop at nothing, even including manipulation. What the Fed does not want is a swooning stock market, surging Gold, or sinking bonds.”
Richard Russell, 05/06/09
Deepcaster entirely agrees with Richard Russell’s recent conclusion, (and, indeed has been writing about these Interventions for several years now), but we would add one addendum. The evidence is overwhelming that Covert (as well as Overt) manipulation is all aforementioned sectors have been ongoing for several years. It is not just a recent phenomenon. Confirming this view, the Secretary-Treasurer of the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee (www.gata.org), Chris Powell, has written an excellent comprehensive article “There are No Markets Anymore, Just Interventions”, which can be found at www.gata.org.
*We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and favored financial institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2008 Letter containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “A Strategy for Profiting from the Cartel’s Dark Interventions & Evolving Techniques” and Deepcaster’s July, 2009 Letter entitled "A Strategy For Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions & Evolving Techniques - II" in the “Latest Letter” Cache at www.deepcaster.com.
Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.”
Fortunately, Deepcaster has developed a Strategy for Profiting from Gold and Silver despite Cartel Interventions. The highlights of that Strategy are laid out in “Surmounting Cartel Advantages” (5/8/09) available in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.
2. Statistical Manipulation versus The Real Numbers
Substantial Cartel advantage is the ability to manipulate and/or manufacture (e.g. by using the classic technique of ‘Painting the Charts’) Key Market Price Patterns and Statistics. Key Official Statistics are often far removed from the Realities of the economy and market place. For example, consider the latest Real Numbers versus the Official Versions, thanks to Shadow Government Statistics.
Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers
Annual Consumer Price Inflation reported July 15th, 2009
-1.4% 9.3% (annualized June Rate)
U.S. Unemployment reported July 13th, 2009
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Declined reported June 25th, 2009
All the above Real Numbers are calculated by Shadow Government Statistics the old-fashioned way i.e. with the methods used before the official gimmicking of these numbers, which began in the 1980’s and 1990’s. See www.shadowstats.com and click on ‘Alternate Data’.
3. Track the Interventionals and the Real Statistics. Many Otherwise Astute Investors were Blindsided by the Takedowns in the Equities and Precious Metals Markets in September, October and November, 2008. But they need not have been!
If these Otherwise Astute Investors had been tracking the Interventionals and monitoring the Genuine Key Statistics rather than the Gimmicked ones issued by Official Sources they would likely have seen the Takedowns coming and would not only have taken steps for Protection, but also for Profit.
Given the Interventional Regime described above, perhaps the single most important factors in the recent performance of certain Major Market Sectors are the Interventionals and manipulation of Statistics - - often even more important than the Fundamentals or the Technicals.
Consider, in more detail for example, U.S. Consumer Price Inflation and other key Data cited above: the sky-high energy and food costs of 2007 and 2008 tend to belie what we were told by Official Sources about the CPI. According to Official Sources, from 1992 through the beginning of 2008 the CPI never went much above 4% annually but only bumped up to about 6% late in 2008. But these figures simply do not square with our own experience of the inflation of prices of practically everything during that period. Nor do they square with certain objective measures as e.g. those from shadowstats.com (see above).
4. Profit Opportunities from Money Supply Inflation
By encouraging massive lending and massive expansion of the actual Money Supply for years, the private for-profit Fed has guaranteed massive inflation. (Of course the private owners of The for-profit Fed profit immensely from this money which they “print” for free, because they then lend it to American Taxpayer with interest!) See “Coping with the Superpower-Cartel Threat!” (1/30/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com. Similarly, key Central Banks around the world that have conducted similar actions and have thus bolstered massive monetary inflation. What this means is that, in the long run, the U.S. Dollar and many other major currencies will buy less, much less, in the future.
However, given that the financial system and key heavyweight investors are awash with printed and borrowed money, certain Key Sectors should explode upward very soon until the long-term negative Economic Fundamentals drag them down again. Of course, this would not happen in one fell swoop, it would happen in Spurts. And, indeed, we think that one Spurt resulting from this Monetary Inflationary “Juice” is not far off. Indeed, we have already forecast that this monetary injection should be reflected in higher prices in certain Key Sectors identified in Deepcaster’s latest Alerts and Letters posted at www.deepcaster.com.
Thus, these considerations provide speculative opportunities, which have high profit potential as well as high risk. The Primary Trend is, after all, a worsening Bear Market. But the Rampant Monetary Inflation reflected in M3 and in the various Bailouts and Loans will provide several trillion dollars for equity investment. And this tremendously increased monetary base is available to inflate the paper value of the Equities and other Markets, when money managers first think the markets have a chance for a sustained (for a few months, or even weeks) Rally, and, when The Cartel Interventional Regime “agrees” with them.
5. Ascertain the Facts; Eschew Big Media Fictions
Other key figures are gimmicked or “spun” as well, with the complicity of the Mainstream Media. Consider the cost of “The Bailouts.” We were told that the cost of “The first Bailout” alone would be $700 billion. But the true cost of that Bailout to American Taxpayers (and, indirectly to investors around the world) will be much higher. One November, 2008 estimate put it at $3.5 trillion and growing, and this did not (and could not have) included any subsequent Stimulus Bill or other Obama Administration authorizations.
Astoundingly, the much-touted recently passed Obama administration Stimulus Bill will likely not create any net new jobs for American Workers.
That is because:
1. The Stimulus Bill allows 300,000 construction jobs to go to Illegal Aliens, as reported in a study by Robert Rector of The Heritage Foundation, and
2. “According to various Official Sources, about 138,000 work authorizations per month are issued to permanent (e.g. via green cards) and ostensibly temporary (e.g. H1b etc.) legal immigrant workers.
That’s over one and one half MILLION foreign workers per year! (even after deducting 156,000 from the annual number that are estimated ‘reauthorizations’)
The Stimulus Bill Does Nothing To Reduce This Flow!
So in other words and considering all the above, the flow of New Legal And Illegal Immigrant Workers In The Next Two Years will Take Virtually All The Three To Four Million Jobs Ostensibly Created By The Stimulus Bill!”
The foregoing is excerpted from an Alert Issued by the Washington D.C. non-profit Carrying Capacity Network, which sensibly advocates solving this problem with a zero-net-immigration Moratorium www.carryingcapacity.org and Real (not virtual) Fencing at the Border. Such a Moratorium would dramatically reduce the approximately two million annual legal (and help reduce the approximately two million illegal) immigrants and their offspring added to the U.S. Population annually. (As well, it is pushing an “Abolish The Fed! U.S. Treasury Instead!” Initiative.)
Thus, The Stimulus Bill is not likely to create or save three to four million jobs for American Workers. Indeed, if the recently introduced Illegal Alien Amnesty bills are enacted the job losses and social service costs will dramatically increase.
Crucial to consider also is The Reality of the U.S. Housing Market today. One of the two Government Sponsored Entities (controlled now by The Feds) is Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae reportedly lost in $23.2 billion in the first 3 months of 2009 alone since mortgage defaults are increasing, not only in risky loans, but increasingly in loans made to borrowers that were formerly considered good credit risks.
Indeed, Freddie Mac is in much worse shape than Fannie Mae. It has already obtained $45 billion in tax payer funds. And it is expected to need billions more in funding from U.S. Taxpayers.
But consider that Freddie and Fannie together own $5.4 trillion in Mortgage Assets, an increasingly large portion of which are at great risk of default.
The Cartel* is still Potent, but not Omnipotent.
Many Hard Assets Partisans recently had the distasteful experience of being victims of the Cartel’s March 18 – 20, 2008 and subsequent Takedowns of Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and other Hard Assets. Other Hard Assets Partisans, including Deepcaster, profited.
While anger is a natural and understandable reaction to such continuing Perfidious Covert Market Intervention, we suggest it is more constructive to adopt an Investing/Trading Strategy which will help eventually to defeat The Cartel* and to profit along the way.
The Basic Rule is to acquire Gold, Silver and Strategic Commodities as Fortress Assets, but with Caveats described in our Strategy.
A major premise of The Strategy is that one can certainly remain a Hard Assets Partisan while at the same time insulating oneself from future Takedowns. The details of this Strategy are set forth in Deepcaster’s Article ‘Surmounting Cartel Advantages’ (5/08/09) available in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com. The Strategy (particularly as applied to the Gold and Silver Markets) is designed to help avoid such unpleasantness, or even possible financial ruin, in the future, as well as to profit along the way in Gold, Silver and Strategic Assets Investments, in spite of Cartel Interventions.
Mainstream Media Boosters of the Notion that the economy is on the mend and that the Equities Markets recent Rally is founded on the beginning of a Real and Sustainable Recovery, are seriously mistaken. Those who are captivated by this Fantasy will likely have an unprofitable year or, worse, suffer substantial losses.
Indeed, investors who are taken in by this Fantasy are turning a Blind Eye to several Worsening Negatives resulting from the current course of monetary and economic policies.
In fact, U.S. taxpaying investors will be increasingly taxed to pay principal and interest on U.S. government borrowings of monies from the private for-profit U.S. Federal Reserve (which prints money for free out of thin air or with a few keystrokes).
Moreover, the Bailouts of Government Sponsored Enterprises and others plus The Fed’s Dollar Debasement policies are in fact causing Retirement Accounts to be in increasing jeopardy.
Notwithstanding Deception, Distortion, Intervention, and other Negatives, the Strategy and Guidelines outlined above can help insulate Investors from losses and can provide potential for substantial profit.
July 17, 2009
DEEPCASTER FORTRESS ASSETS LETTER
DEEPCASTER HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR
Wealth Preservation Wealth Enhancement
-- Posted Friday, 17 July 2009 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com