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Ira Epstein's Weekly Metal Report



-- Posted Thursday, 17 September 2009 | | Source: GoldSeek.com

Seasonal Story

The chart below was by The Moore Research Institute.

Seasonal Chart 9-16-2009

I have done my best over these past reports to display where I think the market has been in terms of seasonality. As you can see, prices are now in the strongest time frame of the year.

US Dollar

The value of maybe lack of value of the Dollar seems to be the driving force behind gold. Inflation is not a factor yet. Neither Iran nor Middle East issues seem to hold headlines. Economic recovery however is a worldwide event, one that has investors moving from “safe haven” investments to riskier ones. As this occurs, the Dollar continues to fall.

My expectation is for even lower Dollar prices in the very near future. Sure they’ll be corrections, but my expectation is for nothing that changes the overall trend just yet.

 

Daily Gold Chart

 

There’s really not much to write about. Last week I said: “It’s my belief that another surge in gold prices is about to take place. Seasonally speaking, mid September fits the historical time frame for the next up leg to begin. Technically speaking if Tuesday’s high of 1009.7 is taken out whatever the current reaction low is should be the low for the rest of September. This of course is technically speaking as I don’t have a crystal ball.” I don’t see anything that’s changed.

 

Technical Analysis

 

The Stochastic reading is embedded. This occurs when both the red and yellow lines on the bottom graph on the Gold Chart stay over 80. Until the red line closes under 80 I would expect price breaks to be shallow or of short duration.

 

Seasonally speaking there could be one more surprise thrust to the upside in September. After that a correction of size could develop. One that has historically lasted until the end of October.

 

So anything you do from this point forward has to take in consideration that seasonally speaking, the odds favor a price correction taking place after this rally ends.

 

 

Trade Recommendations

 

Those that follow my trade recommendations know that I did my best to get you ready for this move most of the summer.

 

Just recently I said to buy December Gold at 949, 991 and again at 1005. I also recommended taking partial profits along the way, taking profit last at 1010 on part of your remaining long position. Basically what I have been doing is having you “roll up” your entry points. The goal has been to have you take profits when the market stalls out, which it of course will do.

 

Right now those that follow my recommendations should be outright long at 1005 in December Gold. This is in addition to the December Gold 1000-1025 Call Spread, which I have been mentioning here for weeks on end and has doubled in value.

 

What to do now?

 

Well if I publish that here that defeats the purpose of getting and reading Twice Daily Update.

 

 

 

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Simply call to receive your of our Futures Trading Kit.

It’s your FREE Trial to our market information and trading tools.

 

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Disclaimer: This publication is strictly the opinion of its writer and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. Information is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures and Options on Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this market letter be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from The Ira Epstein Division of The Linn Group, Inc or The Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.


-- Posted Thursday, 17 September 2009 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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