-- Posted Thursday, 15 October 2009 | | Source: GoldSeek.com
By R. D. Bradshaw
George Ure’s www.UrbanSurvival.com has frequently referred to the work of physicist Dr Cesare Marchetti (with CERN/International Institute of Applied Systems in Austria) on his study of trend lines in various types of analyses. Per Ure, Dr Marchetti has postulated something called the S curve to explain trend lines and decision points; which, per Ure, can be applied to financial markets and decisions on buying and selling.
In 2005, Ure’s paper compared the Marchetti S curve to a bowl of bacteria and said: “The notion of S-curves is best illustrated by considering a dish full of agar (the goo that bacteria go to town on)… The point is the bacteria grow like crazy until the dish is about half covered with bacteria, and then it slows down. Eventually, all of the space is occupied and the growth rate goes to zero. All niches for bacteria are filled and the market is saturated.”
In his August 22, 2009 paper, George added: “Once you have a good sense of how S-curves can be found in summations of large events over time, there's a particular way of looking at the present crisis in the financial sector of the U.S. which suggests that not only is the financial mess far from over, but that if Marchetti's S-curve approach is followed, we could go so far as to infer that another ramp-up of bank failures is upon us and will evidence itself over the next several months.
“In the following chart, I have taken the first round of failures, and I have overlaid two S-curves which should give you some serious 'cause for pause' - this particular view of the world suggests that we are just now entering a new - and potentially even more devastating portion of the financial crisis:”
Ure concludes by saying: “I am deeply in debt to Marchetti for this marvelous way or looking at data which seems to get little play in academia. Nevertheless, when there is particularly 'noisy' data, the S-curves approach can often act as a kind of Occam's Razor able to cut through the bull…. of everyday media. Doesn't always work, but it works often enough that it's a useful tool in the truth-seeker's quest to stay one step ahead of events.”
Yet, as Ure notes above, it doesn’t always work. So, even from his viewpoint, it can have some limitations and must be followed with care.
My Take
Hence, as I understand Ure’s presentation, the S curve is the bend or curving nature of the trend line in its upward motion until it reaches a saturation point when it levels off from where it may then start down. Presumably it could apply in sideway or downward motions. In an exact sideways move (at a 90% angle, if that is possible), it is an S which lies down.
I have previously discussed the problem with chart analyses in the environment of the financial markets which more often than not move on the basis of market manipulations by the Rothschild Cabal of money changers. As long as the Cabal is the agency moving markets, I can plainly see some limitations in many of the markets vis-à-vis an analysis based on the S curve.
Otherwise, it is manifest that the market manipulators do continuously manipulate the markets in oscillating up and down (yo-yo) moves to make their money and steal from uninformed investors. This fact is not in dispute by me. Thus, I can see where the manipulated up and down moves often posit an S lying sideways at various angles depending on the overall trend line. But this trend and the oscillating up and down moves is being programmed and directed by the manipulators and not market psychology or technical factors. Even fundamentals do not play over-riding roles (although they often should).
In terms of Mr. Ure’s attachment of the idea to bank failures, this may be a slightly different approach than general market psychology in the sense that the Cabal may not control bank failures. But here, some would pause and ask if bank failures are truly unplanned and spontaneous or does the Cabal in fact exercise some control over them? So, how about Washington Mutual? Was it unplanned or preplanned?
Anyway, if Ure is right, we probably will see a host of bank failures in the coming months. While some procrastinators have predicted failures as low as 150 in the coming days, others have opted for as many as 1000. Ure himself predicts 800. My own position is near the top end. I think many of the smaller and locally owned banks will fold to be replaced/absorbed/taken over by the richer and more powerful Rothschild Cabal banks. This is what happened with Washington Mutual.
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-- Posted Thursday, 15 October 2009 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
