-- Posted Tuesday, 1 March 2011 | | Source: GoldSeek.com
By Gordon T Long
The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that is presently nearing a final end in a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force by late spring of 2011.
We presently have the early beginnings of a 'rolling top'. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen near major tops. This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern.
Highlight examples of weakening analytics and warning signals are as follows:
- Rising Termination Wedge pattern in the Industrials and S&P 500 since the July 2010 lows.
- Elliott Wave, Gann and Weekly/Monthly Full Stochastic confirm ending rally highs near at hand.
- Significant Bradley Model Turn Date of February 18th.
- Asian & World Market Weakness Leading US Markets
- Fibonacci Cluster Dates showing reversal timing.
- Inter-market Divergence with new highs in the Blue Chip DOW Industrials with lower closes in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Trannies
- Extreme Bullish Sentiment indicators from every methodology we track.
- Bearish Divergence between 10 Day Advance / Decline Line Indicators (NYSE, NDX, RUT) versus Price
- Confirmed Hindenberg Omen from December
- Weakening Breadth - 10 DMA A/D Line versus NYSE, NDX and Russell 2000 price.
OUR CURRENT MACRO EXPECTATIONS FOR FINANCIAL EQUITY MARKETS
The following schematic best represents the US S&P 500 Stock Index
The following schematic best represents the US S&P 500 Stock Index
SIMPLE GANN ANALYSIS
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
CHANNELS ANALYSIS
S&P 500 TARGETS
Near Term Support
We see the near term support to be approximately 1222 on the S&P 500. There is a possibility the sell off may gain momentum and find support at the lower end of the band (see bottom chart) at 1169 but we are skeptical of this because it is unsupported by Gann Analysis.
Intermediate Term Top
Our target for an Intermediate top is 1344 on the S&P 500.
Time Frame
We presently see this Bear Market counter rally which started in March 2009 ending 2011.45. This approximates to June 13th, 2011
We see strong support presently in the 1222 range on the S&P 500. This should hold any sudden fear from event news breaking on the Geo-Political from in North Africa and the Middle East.
SIGNUP FOR THIS FREE MONTHLY ANALYSIS
E-mail: lcmgroupe@comcast.net
Type in the Subject Line: TA Newsletter
Download the complete 39 Page February edition at: February 2011 Market Analytics
I encourage readers to look through the COMMENTARY page of Tipping Points for articles you may have missed. I also encourage you to try our new page for real time TIPPING POINTS news. We continue to make improvements to the page based on reader feedback
Gordon T Long
TIPPING POINTS
Web Page Tipping Points
(http://lcmgroupe.home.comcast.net/Tipping_Points.htm)
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.
-- Posted Tuesday, 1 March 2011 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com