-- Posted Wednesday, 13 April 2005 | Digg This Article
Market Analysis from CapitalUpdates.com:
Retail Sales for March disappointed economically this morning as they came in less than the expected 0.8% at 0.3%. Excluding auto sales, they also fell short of the expected 0.5% at 0.1%, the smallest gain since last April. Excluding gasoline sales as well, retail sales actually fell 0.1%. High energy costs were once again blamed for these disappointing numbers. This further reduces inflation fears, but also lowers expectations for overall economic growth.
Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings Business Inventories for February expected at 0.5% and Initial Claims for 4/09 expected at 330,000.
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Crude inventories continued their 9 week build, this week by 3.6 million barrels, distillate stocks fell 100,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories built by 800,000 barrels. Oil fell down near $50 following the data and rebounded a bit after that, but soon resumed its fall and ended the day down $1.64 to $50.22, a new 7 week low. Oil has lost almost 14% since April 4th when oil hit a new intraday record high above $58.
“U.S. Treasury debt prices eased on Wednesday after an auction of $15 billion in new five-year notes drew only scant demand. The notes were sold at a high yield of 4.046 percent and drew bids for 1.86 times the amount on offer, far below the 2.59 average garnered for the previous 10 auctions of the same maturity.” The 10-Year Treasury note yield traded a bit lower this morning before jumping upward following the auction and gained 0.014 points to 4.374% as the June 2005 US Treasury bond lost 6/32 to 112 19/32.
More analysis on the treasury auction from Peter Spina of The Gold Forecaster: There was a lackluster demand from a class of bidders which includes foreign central banks, which picked up just 28% of the total auction compared to the prior 42%. Demand from foreign sources has been declining recently and provides a rather worrisome situation in the future should this trend continue as there are growing needs to finance the United States' massive debt burden.
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P gave up the late day gains seen yesterday as poor economic data and a poor treasury auction were not offset by lower oil. The Dow lost 104.4 points or 0.99%, the Nasdaq lost 31.03 points or 1.55%, and the S&P lost 13.97 points or 1.18%.
Following the run-up in all three major indices in the fall off 2004, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P have been range bound since then and currently sit near the bottom of that range just above their 5 month closing lows:
Index | 5 Month Low | Today’s Close |
Dow | 10368.61 | 10403.93 |
Nasdaq | 1973.88 | 1974.37 |
S&P | 1163.75 | 1173.79 |
The U.S. dollar index had another curious day today as it remained strong despite disappointing retail sales, this after the curious gains yesterday following disappointing trade deficit data and less hawkish fed minutes. All three events are pretty bearish for the dollar, yet it has held strong. After a 0.25 point gain yesterday, the U.S. dollar index lost just 0.01 points to 84.44 today. The euro index remained unchanged at 129.08 and the yen gained 0.52 points to 93.15.
Gold & Silver Report from GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com:
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 6,109,584 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 101,792,438 | - 308,361 |
Gold and silver traded a bit higher overnight and after losing those gains leading up to the New York open, both metals rebounded soon after to end near their highs by the end of the session. Gold gained $1.90 to $428.70 and silver gained $0.06 to $7.20.
Gold and silver equities fell about 1% at the open and remained at that level this morning before falling another 1% in afternoon trade as the major indices fell off. This was on moderate to light volume and the declines come despite strong metal prices. The new gold ETF’s traded a bit lower this morning before accomplishing smalls gains into afternoon trade that were held into the close.
Index | Close | Gain/Loss |
XAU | 90.13 | -1.98% |
HUI | 191.05 | -2.70% |
GDM | 624.39 | -2.06% |
GLD | 42.90 | +0.14% |
IAU | 42.92 | +0.28% |
Gold & Silver Stock News Update from GoldReview.com:
Cambior’s first quarter gold production, NovaGold’s first quarter financial results, Rubicon’s more high grade gold found, Wheaton’s shareholder approval to complete the merger with Goldcorp, Ivanhoe’s drilling on the Hugo North Deposit, Newmont’s commitment to their Indonesian investment, and Gold Field’s possible split-up were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. MK Resources | MKRR.OB +17.14% $2.05 |
2. Cambior | CBJ +6.01% $1.94 |
3. Gold Reserve | GRZ +1.63% $3.75 |
LOSERS
1. Desert Sun | DEZ -6.12% $1.38 |
2. Rio Narcea | RNO -6.08% $1.39 |
3. DRDGOLD | DROOY -5.88% $0.80 |
- Written by Chris Mullen
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-- Posted Wednesday, 13 April 2005 | Digg This Article