-- Posted Thursday, 30 June 2005 | Digg This Article

Market Analysis from CapitalUpdates.com:

Note:  Canadian markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Canada Day.  Metals trade closes early tomorrow ahead of the observance of Independence Day.  All US markets are closed on Monday.

Personal Income for May came in less than the expected 0.3% at 0.2%.  Personal Spending for May came in less than the expected 0.1% at 0.0%.  Personal Income for April was revised down to match the spending increase at 0.6%.  The low statistics indicate low inflation, but also indicate a possible soft patch in the economy.

Initial Jobless Claims for 6/25 came in less than the expected 325,000 at 310,000, the lowest mark since April 16^th.

Chicago PMI for June came in less than the expected 54.0 at 53.6, a 2 year low.  This may indicate a soft patch in the manufacturing sector, though a reading above 50 still indicates growth.

The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Advertising Index for May came in less than the expected 40 at 37.  The index is considered to be a key barometer of the job market, and the cautiousness shown in the report may hint towards slowing job growth as help-wanted advertising has declined in all 9 US regions in the past 3 months.  “Hiring intentions have turned cautious as business executives face the prospect of slower overall economic activity in the second half of 2005.”

The fed did indeed raise rates by ¼ point for a 9^th time in a row, bringing rates to 3.25%.  Language by the fed noted that their “stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.”  “With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.”  “Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer term inflation expectations remain well contained.”  Upside and downside risks are “roughly equal.”  Among the issues influencing the fed’s stance are the bond yield “conundrum,” inflation, a possible soft patch, and a potential housing bubble.  The fed’s next announcement comes on August 9^th.

Tomorrow at 9:45AM EST brings the revised figure for June Michigan Sentiment expected at 94.6.  Auto and Truck Sales also start to roll in.  At 10AM is Construction Spending for May expected at 0.5%.  Also at 10AM is the ISM Index for June, officially expected at 51.5.  The Philadelphia fed for June came out last June 16^th and gave a negative reading of -2.2.  This was the first negative reading in 25 months and points to contraction in the manufacturing sector.  Although just an indicator of the Philadelphia region, the index is famous for predicting nation wide manufacturing growth, so don’t be surprised if the ISM index drops below 50 tomorrow.  Its May reading of 51.4 was already the lowest reading since June 2003.  Should it drop below 50, it will likely have a notable impact on the market.

Oil traded mixed and near unchanged this morning before dropping about $1 in afternoon trade and ending with a loss of $0.76 to $56.50.

Treasuries traded slightly higher this morning before extending their gains following the fed’s announcement as inflation was said to be “well contained.”

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P traded modestly higher this morning before dropping off to near unchanged by the afternoon in anticipation of the fed’s announcement.  Following the announcement, all three indices dropped to their lows of the day on high volume as the fed gave no indication of slowing interest rate rises anytime soon.  Losses continued for the rest of the afternoon and the indices ended near their lows of the day.  The Dow came within just ½ point of dropping over 100 points for the 3^rd time in just 6 sessions.

Among the big names making news in the market today were John Mack and Morgan Stanley, AT&T and SBC, the White House and the SEC, Bank of America and MBNA, Boeing and 3M, PalmSource, ConAgra, American Greetings, CNOOC and Unocal, Ripplewood, and Calpers and AT&T.

The U.S. dollar index traded mixed but mostly higher in choppy trade and ended near unchanged after initially gaining following the fed’s announcement.  Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet next week, and many are speculating about possible rate cuts by one or both of them.  Rumors about China came out late today that they will revalue the Yuan sometime within the next 1-2 months... “Two senators sponsoring legislation aimed at forcing China to revalue its currency said Thursday they would hold off pressing for a vote at the urging of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary John Snow.  Sens. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., announced the delay after meeting with Greenspan and Snow at the Capitol. The lawmakers said they had received indications from the officials that the Chinese were on the verge of moving voluntarily to a new currency system.”  The yen furthered its 8 and ½ month lows and ended at its lows of the session.

Gold & Silver Report from GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com: 

Gold traded mixed and near unchanged in Asia before moving lower in early London trade.  Gold then rebounded in late London and early New York trade and scaled new highs a little after 11AM EST before dropping off sharply in early afternoon trade to make new lows for the session.  Gold ended near its lows with a loss of $1.30 to $435.40.  Silver traded nicely higher in Asia and London before dropping off in early New York trade.  Silver also attempted a move higher a little after 11AM EST before dropping off with gold and ending the day with a loss of $0.02 to $7.01.  

Gold and silver equities traded mixed this morning before steadily dropping off in afternoon trade and ending near their lows of the day.

More Precious Metals Analysis:

“The gold market weakened in the wake of early Dollar strength Thursday morning but seemed to come under a broader based metals sell off around mid session. The gold market seemed to be reconnecting with the Dollar but with the rest of the metals apparently coming under macro economic related or end of quarter selling pressure it was clear that gold was simply being influenced by outside factors. Despite the slide off the June highs, the gold market probably remains somewhat overbought in the small spec and fund category and that would seem to leave the market vulnerable to more long liquidation in the event that the Dollar returns to new high ground on the charts.” - The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

Gold & Silver Stock News Update from GoldReview.com:

A possible strike at Placer Dome’s copper mine in Chile, Barrick Gold’s raising of Tanzania’s 2005-06 gold output, and Silver Wheaton’s approval to trade on the American Stock Exchange were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

WINNERS

LOSERS

Note:  Winners & Losers Will No Longer Track Stocks Under $1.

Would you like to receive the Daily Gold Seeker Report in your e-mail?

Click here.

Do you have questions, comments, or suggestions about this report?  Email Chris Mullen at cm@goldseek.com.

- Written by Chris Mullen

The Gold Seeker Closing Report is a free edition providing a daily wrap-up of gold & gold-related news.  For more in-depth analysis of the gold markets, subscribe to The Gold Forecaster.

All sources are given within the report and most articles can be found as they are released at http://www.capitalupdates.com/, http://www.goldseek.com/, http://www.silverseek.com/, and http://www.goldreview.com/.

© Gold Seeker 2005

Note: The following article may be reproduced provided the article, in full, is used and mention to Gold-Seeker.com is given.

Disclosure: The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions.  The author of this report is not a registered financial advisor.  Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. GoldSeek.com has taken precautions to ensure accuracy of information provided. Information collected and presented are from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond GoldSeek.com’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate.  The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change.  GoldSeek.com and employees associated with Gold Seek LLC do not trade the stocks mentioned in stock reports for one week prior to and one week following publication. The information presented in stock reports are not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only.  The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise outside of the trading timeframe listed above. GoldSeek.com may have been compensated for their services in preparing and publishing this report. Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation by the publisher, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities & therefore information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein.  Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

-- Posted Thursday, 30 June 2005 | Digg This Article

Previous Articles by Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker

© 1995 - 2019

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer